Tip of the Week: Looking Sharp

A horse in a strong form cycle is usually a good bet. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
One of the keys to a successful day at the races is finding sharp horses poised to turn in another strong effort.
That may sound simple but there’s plenty of fool’s gold included among the gems you’ll find on a typical racing card. After all, favorites only win about one-third of each day’s races.
To avoid pinning your hopes on the 66 percent of favorites that crumble instead of rumble, it’s important to back horses in the midst of a strong form cycle.
 In the ninth race at Churchill Downs on Nov. 16, Haunted Heroine had the look of a deserving favorite at the betting windows.
The 3-year-old filly was coming off a solid win in a non-winners-of-one allowance race at Keeneland, and was stepping up to a non-winners-of-two allowance. She was a two-length winner in her last start and had posted a career-best speed figure in the process.

The victory also marked Haunted Heroine’s second start after an eight-month layoff. In her comeback race on Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs, she ran evenly and finished third, 4 ¼ lengths behind the winner. It was the kind of effort that indicated Haunted Heroine needed the race and her victory in that subsequent start only underscored that notion.
Haunted Heroine faced a tougher task in the Nov. 16 race, but her improved effort in her last start was a highly promising sign. Ditto for a 1:01 five-furlong breeze, the fourth fastest of 24 at that distance, on Nov. 6, which indicated the last race was hardly draining.
Add in a highly consistent career record of six starts with two wins, a second and two thirds, and there was every reason to believe Haunted Heroine was ready for another top effort.
The win odds were hardly huge, but 7-5 was surely a square price on a horse with so much going for her. Those that agreed collected $4.80 for each $2 in the span of 1:38.69 seconds that it took for Haunted Heroine to post a half-length victory.
Your neighborhood bank should offer interest like that!
THE LESSON: The payoffs for backing favorites are usually small, but finding horses in great form is usually the formula for success in handicapping.