Keeneland January a Big Start for 2019

In the second half of last year's major mixed sales—those featuring foals of 2018 and mares covered in 2018—a total of 7,217 horses were sold, which grossed US$537 million and averaged $74,457. The combined gross was up about 3% from 2017 and, in fact, fluctuated between $504 million and $533 million over the four previous years.

So there wasn't much reason to expect any kind of spike in demand at the Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, even given the usual disclaimer that the quality of mixed sales catalogs is always eligible to vary widely—for example, Abel Tasman, who commanded a $5 million final bid in 2019, versus no Abel Tasman in 2018. When it's one horse like that, it's relatively simple to account for—just take out the top lot in both years (in 2018, it was broodmare prospect Mrs McDougal, who sold for $1.6 million).

So it came as a pleasant surprise to just about everybody that demand was so strong at the sale, which took place Jan. 7-10 in Lexington, Ky. Including Abel Tasman and Mrs McDougal, the January gross was up by 33%, from $34,996,000 to $46,759,600, and the average rose by 32%, from $38,499 to $51,048.

Even taking out the two top sales, which in this case is a more accurate gauge of the market, the gross was still up by 25% and the average by 24%; which indicates the January market was actually up by a quarter, rather than by a third. It's still, relatively speaking, a massive leap; so why?

In the Jan. 11 BloodHorse Daily, bloodstock editor Eric Mitchell ran a couple of interesting pages covering market sectors. The average for 'short yearlings' barely moved, just 2%, from $39,054 last year to $39,755 this year. But the average for broodmares and broodmare prospects, even taking out Abel Tasman, increased by 19%. So it's clear that the growth in the January market was, in fact, in breeding stock, not in yearlings.

It's the first time in several years there's been such an appetite among breeders to acquire breeding stock.

Australasia's yearling sales season also kicked off the week of Jan. 9, with Book 1 of the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale, which concluded Jan. 12 with records for gross (AU$169,865,000, up 9% from 2018) and average (AU$238,910, up 5%, for 711 yearlings sold) in a sale that saw 11 yearlings sell for AU$1 million or more and nine stallions average AU$250,000 or higher with 10 or more yearlings sold.

More details on that important sale in my column next week, but the Book 1 Magic Millions sale is Australasia's highest-grossing yearling auction, so the fact they have sustained the phenomenal growth in the Australasian yearling market is further good news, in the first two weeks of January, for the international auction marketplace.

Year-End 2018 APEX: Frankel Really Is The New Galileo

The Annual Progeny Earnings Index was developed by my team at the old Racing Update 30 years ago as a way to dilute the distortion in the average-earnings index caused by one huge earner. There are actually 17 different ratings (by class, age, and region), but the signature tune is the APEX A Runner Index, which measures the frequency with which stallions sire runners who are among the top 2% of earners each year or (Southern Hemisphere) season.

Two restrictions are that the numbers are calculated for a rolling seven-year period (2012-18 in this case), and only sires with 10 or more 3-year-olds of the last year covered (in this case 2015) are assigned ratings. The seven-year period catches once-great sires who are on the downgrade, and the 10 or more foals restriction eliminates the bottom one-third of sires and 20% of foals who will never figure on any but very local radar, but whose inclusion in statistics has the effect of inflating sires' ratings.

Galileo is the most prolific top sire in history, at least in terms of average crop size. His own sire, Sadler's Wells, sired 2,180 foals in 23 crops, an average of 95 foals per crop, and Danehill, who died at age 17, sired a total of 2,410 foals in 27 crops, counting both hemispheres, an average of 89 foals per crop.

Galileo has sired 1,984 foals in 14 crops of racing age (through 2018), an average of 141 foals per crop—almost 50% more foals per crop than Sadler's Wells. Yet, in his crops racing in 2012-18, Galileo scores a massive 5.78 A Runner Index, which equals (multiply x 2) 11.56% of A Runners per year of starters. 

In terms of A Runner Index, however, Frankel, the best son of Galileo, surpasses even Galileo in his ratio of A Runners per year to starters (a horse counts as one year-starter every year it runs, because the calculations are done on an annualized basis). From 316 year-starters 2016-18 Frankel has 42 A Runners, which translates to a 6.65 A Runner Index. That makes him the king of APEX sires, though he obviously has just 15% the number of year-starters as his sire.

Galileo's 241 A Runners 2012-18 is over 100 more than second-ranked Dubawi (136). Only Tapit  (125), Kitten's Joy  (107), Medaglia d'Oro  (105), and War Front  (103) also have more than 100 A Runners over the seven-year period.

Dubawi (4.89) ranks third by A Runner Index, meaning the top three sires are all European. They are followed by three American sires: War Front (4.68); Uncle Mo  (3.87); and Medaglia d'Oro (3.50). Then two more Europeans, Galileo's half brother Sea The Stars (3.36) and Dansili (3.30), and two more American round out the top 10: Ghostzapper  (3.29) and Tapit (3.11).

The top 15 are rounded off by German sire Adlerflug (3.02); Into Mischief  (2.86); Curlin  and Fastnet Rock (2.84 each); and Quality Road  and Scat Daddy (2.79 each).

The biggest mover among the top 50 sires in the second half of 2018 was Union Rags . He had one 2018 A Runner when the midyear 2018 statistics were run and ranked 119th with an A Runner Index of 1.36, but he ended the year with nine A Runners, jumping to rank 36th with an A Runner Index of 2.23.

For the complete list of 777 North American, European, and Japanese sires with first foals 2015 and earlier which had year-end 2018 APEX ratings, as well as further explanation of the APEX method, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Follow Bill on Twitter at @billoppenheim.