Handicapping Busy Weekend of Stakes

There is a smorgasbord of stakes action across the nation Jan. 19. Older sprinters are in the spotlight at Santa Anita Park, where Roy H makes his seasonal debut in the six-furlong Palos Verdes (G2), and also at Aqueduct Racetrack, where the seven-furlong Toboggan (G3) is the first graded stakes of the year in New York.

At Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, the road to the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and the $1.25 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) gets underway with the Lecomte (G3) and the Silverbulletday stakes, which are 17-point qualifiers (10-4-2-1) respectively.

It's also Sunshine Millions Day at Gulfstream Park, featuring four Florida-bred stakes topped by the $200,000 Classic.

Palos Verdes (SA, race 9, 4:00 PT): Roy H (7) followed up his win in the 2017 TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) with a handy score in Palos Verdes at 1-5, and will be odds-on to repeat that form pattern first time out since defending his BC title. As if the $3 million earner needed any help, he drew outside in a seven-horse field, affording any and all tactical options off the break. Most everyone will sink or swim with him as a free bingo square in multi-race exotics, and no A-B-C grades seem necessary.

Toboggan (Aqu, race 5, 2:26 ET): With just five entered, the Toboggan was placed in the middle of the card. Skyler's Scramjet (2) and Gold for the King (1) were separated by less than a length when second and third in the Gravesend Dec. 23, but we're relegating them to backups as the first two choices on the morning line. Skyler's Scramjet is a bounce prospect coming off a peak effort first time out in six months, and he was beaten 10 lengths in both previous tries at seven furlongs; Gold for the King is back a week after running a troubled third against New York-breds as the favorite in the Say Florida Sandy.

I'm a sucker for routers with speed turning back to seven-eighths, and the Todd Pletcher-trained Bal Habrour (4) fits the description after setting the pace in the Queens County at 1 1/8 miles and holding for third. I don't think we'll get the 5-1 quote, though.

A - 4

B - 1, 2

Silverbulletday (FG, race 11, 5:20 CT): In this instance we're siding with the favorites, Liora (4) and Needs Supervision (5), who were last seen lighting up the toteboard on a sloppy Nov. 24 program at Churchill Downs. At 27-1, Liora survived a prolonged battle up front to take the Golden Rod (G2) by a nose over Restless Rider, who was coming off a runnerup effort in the Tito's Handmade Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). A few races earlier, at 37-1, Needs Supervision drew out to a five-length allowance win in sharp time and manner. She will be first-time Lasix, and turned in a noteworthy six-furlong workout in 1:10 4/5 Jan. 4.

The backup is Mandy Blue (7), who has won both of her starts for Brad Cox. Cox developed Monomoy Girl into the shoo-in champion 3-year-old filly of 2018, beginning with a victory over this track in the Rachel Alexandra (G2).

A - 4, 5

B - 7

Lecomte (FG, race 12, 5:49 CT): A full gate of 14 plus one also-eligible will line up for a wide-open renewal of this event. We've managed to whittle it down to seven contenders headed by Tackett (3), and a pair of homebred Tapit  colts trained by Steve Asmussen—Wicked Indeed (1) and Tight Ten (11).

Tackett is 2 for 2 locally since stretched out to two turns, first wiring maidens and then returning four weeks later to withstand a battle through the lengths of the long stretch against Owendale, who came back to win Thursday.

Finishing an even third in that race was Wicked Indeed, who was coming off a debut sprint win and has plenty of upside. Notably, the fourth finisher, Spectacular Gem, returned to win by six lengths Jan. 12.

Tight Ten makes his first start since hitting the rail early and winding up far back in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Prior to that, he set/forced the pace in narrow losses in the Saratoga Special (G2) and the Iroquois (G3) stakes. Tight Ten shows a nearly identical work pattern as Wicked Indeed, and a clean getaway may find him on a hassle-free lead.

Mr. Money (4), fourth in the BC Juvenile, and War of Will (8) are backups. For those inclined to spread wider, throw in Plus Que Parfait (12), a sharp second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) under closer-favoring conditions, and Manny Wah (13), who emerges from a big-figure placing in the Sugar Bowl at six furlongs.

A - 3, 11

B - 1, 4, 8

C - 12, 13

Sunshine Millions Classic (GP, race 11, 4:47 ET): Back for another go-round are the one-two finishers from last year's edition, Jay's Way (7) and Mr. Jordan (4), but there are reasons to distrust both grizzled veterans. Jay's Way has lost four subsequent starts by a combined 60 lengths, while Mr. Jordan is 9 for 17 away from Gulfstream but only 1 for 17 on this surface.

Souper Tapit (8) runs in a stakes race on dirt for the first time since checking and clipping heels early in the 2017 Stonestreet Lexington (G3) at age 3. Draw a line through that debacle, and the son of Tapit has progressed gradually in all of his dirt races, climaxed by a romping win against open optional claimers first time on this track.

Dalmore (1) figures to keep Jay's Way busy up front. He's won just once from 14 tries since the summer of 2016, but has been in some pretty ambitious spots along the way.

Noble Drama (6) was a distant second to the freakishly fast World of Trouble through a sloppy seven furlongs last month at Tampa Bay Downs, but prior to that he was a fast-closing third behind Mr. Jordan going long in the Millions Classic Preview across town at Gulfstream Park West.

A - 8

B - 1, 6

C - 4, 7