Breaking the Bank: Ripple Effect at Churchill

Breaking the Bank - featuring data courtesy of Equibase - highlights the biggest scores of the past week in racing. (Churchill Downs photo by Eclipse Sportswire) 
The ripple effect of a shocking race is entertaining to examine in hindsight.
Many times when a big longshot strikes, I wonder if one horseplayer with a hunch cashed multiple big tickets or if different players cashed exotic tickets using different strategies.
Even though it’s probably incorrect, I often assume that players who cash a monster ticket on a superfecta would also have bet the trifecta and big Pick 4 or Pick 5 winners probably also cashed Pick 3 tickets on the same sequence.
In reality, it’s far more likely that the dime superfecta player is a much different gambler than the trifecta player. While Pick 4 or Pick 5 players also often focus on that particular bet, many multi-race players I know also will play Pick 3s throughout a sequence, especially if they have a strong opinion in one or more races.
On Nov. 22 at Churchill Downs, I think we can safely assume that multiple bettors with all sorts of preferences cashed huge tickets on Race 6. That race led to five of the top payouts on the table below, including a huge superfecta score and a pair of multi-race tickets.
Before we look at the many ways this race impacted payouts, let’s take a look at how this one-mile maiden claiming race played out.
Bluffalo Bill pressed the pace at 32.20-to-1 odds in his third career race and drew away to win by an easy 3 ½ lengths. Explosive Verruga rallied for second with a four-wide bid and was two lengths clear of the third-place finisher at odds of 46.70-to-1. Majestic Spring followed at 9.10-to-1 with The Devil We Know fourth at 11.40-to-1, the latter held off 62-to-1 bomb Summer Epic by a neck. Even-money favorite Dr Smooth finished sixth.
Click here for the Equibase charts from Nov. 22 at Churchill Downs
Bluffalo Bill entered the $15,000 maiden claiming race following a last-place finish in his debut (a $30,000 maiden claiming race) and a fifth in his second start, when he stumbled at the break before making a middle move and fading to finish 17 ¾ lengths behind the winner. He would have been tough to back given how badly he faded in his debut at 1 1/16 miles with only a middle move in a six-furlong sprint, when he dropped down to a $15,000 claiming price, as a nugget of hope.
Runner-up Explosive Verruga looked even less likely to run a big race having finished last and second-to-last in two previous races while beaten by a combined margin of 39 lengths.
No surprise then that the $2 exacta returned $2,177.80 and the $2 trifecta paid $32,220.60 (or $8,055.15 for the 50-cent minimum bet), both tops for the week. The superfecta paid a reported $145,985.40 for a $2 bet, but with $84,519 total in the pool we can do the math and conclude that the winning tickets were dime bets that cashed for $7,299.27.
Imagine if 62-to-1 Summer Epic had outfinished The Devil We Know for fourth. There might have been a single bettor who took down the entire pot or, perhaps, nobody would have correctly picked the top four in order.
Race 6 on Saturday at Churchill also was the key to a $2 Pick 3 (Races 4-6) that paid $19,051.60 (or $4,762.90 for the 50-cent minimum) and a $2 Pick 4 (Races 4-7) that cashed for $36,243.40 ($9,060.85 for the 50-cent minimum). Georgeous Bird won the fourth race at 4.10-to-1; Paroled followed with a win at 24.70-to-1 in Race 5; and Hazards of Love closed the Pick 4 as the winning 1-to-2 favorite in Race 7.
As tough as the sixth race at Churchill on Nov. 22 would have been to crack, especially the superfecta, there was a superfecta last week that produced a higher return on investment.
Alworth won the third race on Nov. 19 at Laurel Park at odds of 31.80-to-1, with 25.60-to-1 Foreign Review a half-length back in second. With 6.20-to-1 Reason to Drink third and 13.20-to-1 Kincaid fourth, the 10-cent superfecta paid $14,143.50 to one lucky bettor … no doubt sufficient reason to tip back a celebratory beverage! 
Top Payouts for the Week Ended Nov. 23

Wager
 Wager Amount 
 Payoff 
Track
Date
Race#

Win
 $2.00
 $133.50
AQU
11/21/14
3

Place
 $2.00
 $69.20
CT
11/20/14
8

Show
 $2.00
 $26.60
CD
11/22/14
9

Exacta
 $1.00
 $572.10
DMR
11/20/14
4

Exacta
 $2.00
 $2,177.80
CD
11/22/14
6

Quinella
 $1.00
 $93.60
TUP
11/22/14
6

Quinella
 $2.00
 $255.80
DMR
11/20/14
4

Trifecta
 $0.50
 $819.30
DED
11/21/14
7

Trifecta
 $1.00
 $7,779.00
GPW
11/19/14
10

Trifecta
 $2.00
 $32,220.60
CD
11/22/14
6

Superfecta
 $0.10
 $14,143.50
LRL
11/19/14
3

Superfecta
 $1.00
 $26,440.70
TUP
11/18/14
6

Superfecta
 $2.00
 $145,985.40
CD
11/22/14
6

Daily Double
 $1.00
 $313.20
TUP
11/22/14
6

Daily Double
 $2.00
 $1,619.00
AQU
11/21/14
4

Pick 3
 $0.20
 $409.48
HAW
11/19/14
5

Pick 3
 $0.50
 $4,207.50
DED
11/21/14
7

Pick 3
 $1.00
 $2,296.40
GG
11/20/14
7

Pick 3
 $2.00
 $19,051.60
CD
11/22/14
6

Pick 4
 $0.20
 $1,866.34
HAW
11/19/14
5

Pick 4
 $0.50
 $12,190.90
GG
11/20/14
5

Pick 4
 $1.00
 $13,123.70
GG
11/20/14
7

Pick 4
 $2.00
 $36,243.40
CD
11/22/14
7

Pick 5
 $0.20
 $1,315.34
PM
11/23/14
10

Pick 5
 $0.50
 $42,759.00
DED
11/22/14
11

Pick 5
 $2.00
 $88,576.00
AQU
11/21/14
5

Pick 5 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $1,032.24
LRL
11/22/14
9

Pick 6
 $0.20
 $10,617.34
GG
11/21/14
8

Pick 6
 $1.00
 $2,102.00
TUP
11/18/14
8

Pick 6
 $2.00
 $46,951.20
DMR
11/21/14
8

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $27,929.28
CD
11/22/14
11

Super High Five
 $0.50
 $15,851.50
DMR
11/23/14
9

Super High Five
 $1.00
 $3,467.30
GPW
11/22/14
10

Super High Five
 $2.00
 $928.20
MNR
11/23/14
8

Click here for a complete list of racetracks with abbreviations.

© 2014 Equibase Company LLC, all rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally is accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to their attention.  

Commonly Used Gambling Terms

Account wagering – Betting by internet or phone, in which a bettor must open an account and deposit money with which to bet.
Across the board – A bet on a horse to win, place and show. If the horse wins, the player collects three ways; if second, two ways; and if third, one way, losing the win and place bets. Actually, three bets.
Bounce – An especially poor performance on the heels of an especially good one.
Box – A betting term denoting a combination bet whereby all possible numeric combinations are covered for certain horses.
Bridge jumper – A person who wagers large amounts of money, usually on short- priced horses to show, hoping to realize a small but almost certain profit. The term comes from the structure those bettors may seek if they lose the bet.
Chalk – Betting favorite in a race.
Chalk player – Gambler who wagers on favorites.
Daily Double (or Double) – Type of bet calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races.
Exacta – A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked.
Exacta box – A wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are selected.
Exotic (bet) – Any bet other than win, place, or show that requires multiple combinations. Examples of exotic wagers are trifecta, Pick 6, Pick 4.
Handle – Amount of money wagered in the pari-mutuel system on a race, full day of races, or entire racing season at a track.
In the money – A horse that finishes first, second or third.
Key horse – A single horse used in multiple combinations in an exotic bet.
Morning line – The starting odds set by the track handicapper.
On the board – Finishing among the first three.
On the nose – Betting a horse to win only.
Overlay – A horse whose odds are greater than its potential to win.
Pari-mutuel – System of wagering where all the money is returned to the bettors after deduction of track and state percentages.
Parlay – A multi-race bet in which all winnings are subsequently wagered on a succeeding race.
Part wheel – Using a key horse or horses in different, but not all possible, exotic wagering combinations.
Pick (6 or other number) – A type of multi-race bet in which the winners of all the included races must be selected. Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6 are commonly used by tracks in the United States.
Place bet – A bet on a horse to finish first or second.
Quinella - Bet in which the first two finishers must be picked in either order.
Show bet – A bet on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.
Speed Figure – A metric that rates a horse’s performance in a race, which is determined by a combination of the horse’s performance and the level of competition he/she competed against.
Trifecta – A bet in which the first three finishers must be selected in exact order.
Trifecta box – A trifecta wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are bet upon.
Underlay – Horse whose odds are more promising than his potential to win.
Win – A bet on a horse to finish first.
Wheel – Betting all possible combinations in an exotic wager using at least one horse as the key.