Magic Millions Continues Australian Commercial Surge

Australian racing and breeding has been bounding forward at an impressive rate for the last 10 years and the Australian industry is now a model example of the level of prize money necessary to entice ordinary citizens into horse ownership.

With the advantage of big markets in Hong Kong and other successful Asian racing countries that do not have large breeding programs, the Australian auction markets have, not surprisingly, reached all-time highs. Kentucky has Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton; Europe has Tattersalls, Goffs, and Arqana; and Australia has Sydney-based Inglis and Magic Millions, based on the Gold Coast, near Brisbane.

The Australasian yearling auction calendar was underway just after the beginning of the year, and the major yearling auctions run through Inglis's Easter Yearling Sale, now permanently positioned in early April. Magic Millions kicked off the 2019 Australasian yearling sales season Jan. 9 with its four-day Book 1, which broke last year's record gross for an Australian yearling sale as 719 yearlings—an incredible 81% of those cataloged—brought a total of AU$170,762,500 (US$122,385,683) and averaged AU$237,500 ($173,833).

The gross was up 8% from last year's record total of AU$156,985,000, while the average gained 5%, from AU$225,878. And besides the bare figures, all reports indicate the energy levels also continued at record highs, including a healthy contingent of what they call 'internationals' from Europe, America, and Asia.

The last decade has also seen the ascendance of Danehill's two best Australian-bred sons, Arrowfield's Redoute's Choice and Coolmore's Fastnet Rock. Both have been the continent's leading sire, Redoute's Choice three times and Fastnet Rock twice. Redoute's Choice also sired Arrowfield's Snitzel, another two-time leading sire who is well on his way to a third.

Also Redoute's Choice is carving out an impressive record as a broodmare sire: he was runner-up to Encosta de Lago as leading broodmare sire last season and is in the lead this season. Of Australia's two best young stallions, he's the damsire of top second-season sire Zoustar (by Encosta De Lago's short-lived but influential son, Northern Meteor), and he's proving a terrific cross under Australia's top third-season sire, Pierro. For good measure Redoute's Choice is the sire of Australia's top 3-year-old this season, The Autumn Sun.

Redoute's Choice was the top-selling sire by average in Magic Millions Book 1 with 10 or more sold. His 15 yearlings sold averaged AU$549,667 ($393,882), including three of the sale's 11 millionaires. Darley's Medaglia d'Oro  was the leading sire by average with more than one sold, as two of his four sold were seven-figure sales for an overall average of AU$633,750 ($454,654).

I Am Invincible was No. 1 by gross and runner-up by average among those with 10 or more sold. Yarraman Park's rags-to-riches son of Invincible Spirit would surely be Australia's 2018 leading sire except for that pesky Snitzel, whose son Redzel won back-to-back editions of the AU$13 million Tab Everest. Snitzel's filly, Exhilarates, also won the AU$2 million Star Gold Coast Magic Millions 2-year-old Classic Jan. 12.

I Am Invincible, meanwhile, is second on the 2018-19 Australian general sire list for the third straight season, but this season he is already the sire of 19 stakes winners. Snitzel has a AU$6.5 million break on him on the progeny earnings list, but no one is in any doubt that I Am Invincible is also a world-class sire—reflected by the statistic that he had no fewer than 56 yearlings sell in Magic Millions Book 1, grossing AU$24,645,000 ($17,669,145) and averaging AU$440,089 ($315,520), including four millionaires.

Fastnet Rock (17/AU$377,353, including one millionaire) was third by average in Book 1 of the sale, Snitzel fourth (33/AU$366,870), and Zoustar—standing at Widden in Australia and about to commence his first Northern Hemisphere season at Qatar Racing's stallion hub in England, Tweenhills (for a bargain £25,000)—was fifth with 40 yearlings averaging AU$320,375, including his first seven-figure yearling.

Four other sires averaged between AU$250,000 and AU$300,000: Victoria's Woodside Park Stud's Written Tycoon, who had 40 yearlings average AU$292,125 from his best book of mares yet; Widden's Sebring, who had 30 average AU$289,833; Arrowfield's Not A Single Doubt, another by Redoute's Choice, who had 27 yearlings average $289,259; and Yarraman Park's Hinchinbrook—a half brother to Snitzel who unfortunately died not long before the last covering season started—that had 22 yearlings average AU$268,636. Darley's veteran Exceed And Excel rounded out the top 10 with 10 or more sold, as he had 17 yearlings average AU$232,059.

These older proven sires are so much in demand, it didn't leave much room for younger sires. Among those with their first 3-year-olds now racing, Zoustar crashed into the top five with a AU$320,375 average. Australia's second-leading, second-crop sire is Eureka Stud's Spirit Of Boom, who had the winner and third-place finishers in the AU$2 million Magic Millions 3YO Guineas, and whose 14 Book 1 yearlings averaged AU$158,214.

Three sires with their first 2-year-olds averaged just over AU$200,000 from their second crops of yearlings: Darley's Brazen Beau had 10 yearlings average AU$220,750; Newgate's Deep Field had 20 average AU$202,500; and Coolmore's Rubick had 10 average AU$202,000.

The veteran Vinery stallion More Than Ready  (20/AU$220,750) and Coolmore's leading third-crop sire, Pierro (23/AU$200,435) completed the list of 15 sires with 10 or more sold and averaged over AU$200,000. The leading first-crop sire was Coolmore's Vancouver, who had 28 yearlings average AU$185,714 to rank 16th.

Next up: New Zealand Bloodstock holds their Karaka Yearling Sales series at their much-admired complex, just outside Auckland, from Jan 27-Feb 3, with the Karaka Race Day at Ellerslie Racecourse Jan. 26. Karaka Book 1 is a four-day sale, Jan. 27-30. Last year 559 yearlings sold in Karaka Book 1, grossing NZ$83,549,000 ($61,283,905) and averaging NZ$155,007 ($113,699).

Their headline sire is Waikato Stud's four-time leading sire in New Zealand, Savabeel, a son of Zabeel who is the best sire son of the legendary Sir Tristram. Savabeel, who had five yearlings average AU$303,000 in Magic Millions Book 1, has 70 of the 698 yearlings cataloged to Karaka Book 1—10% of the catalog.

APEX Ratings: Six Key Lists

In last week's column it was noted that the APEX method of rating sires—essentially an improved variation of the average-earnings index—actually produces 17 different ratings based on class, age, and region. Today we want to focus on six different 'Top 50' tables, among 423 North American and European sires with 200 or more year-starters 2012-18 (an individual horse is counted as one 'year-starter' each year it runs, so one horse in theory could count as many as seven year-starters).

The APEX method identifies three class levels. 'A Runners,' the top 2% of earners in each jurisdiction (i.e. North America) each year; 'B Runners,' the next 2%; 'C Runners,' the next 4%, and 'ABC Runners,' the top 8%, combined. During 2018 in North America, a horse had to earn around $137,000 to qualify as an A Runner; $98,000 for B Runners; and $67,000 for C Runners. While it may be somewhat painful to note that sires who stand for $100,000 are very good at siring C Runners, if the horse is among the top 8% of earners it will be earning its keep.

Four very important 'Top 50' tables are the leaders by A Runner Index, ABC Runner Index, and by number of A Runners and ABC Runners. The two categories by number of success stories obviously favor older sires who had time to have more runners, or more accurately, they penalize younger sires, which haven't had as much opportunity.

Thus Frankel, the top North American/European sire by both A Runner Index (6.65) and ABC Runner Index (2.89), is nowhere near the top in the 'numbers' categories since his runners have been racing for only three years, while other top sires will have had runners for up to seven.

Last week we ran the top sires by 2012-18 A Runner Index: Frankel (6.65), Galileo (5.78), Dubawi (4.89), and War Front  (4.68) were the top four, followed by Uncle Mo  (3.87). The top four are the same by ABC Runner Index, though the scale is lower because the A Runner Index is divided by 2%, whereas the ABC Index is divided by 8%—Frankel (2.89), Galileo (2.73), Dubawi (2.69), and War Front (2.60).

Incidentally a 2.89 ABC Index translates to 23.12% of Frankel's runners being C Runners or better (multiply the index x 8). Curlin  (2.23) edges Uncle Mo (2.22) for fifth spot by ABC Index.

Looking at the leaders by number of A Runners and ABC Runners, older sires dominate. Galileo (241 A Runners 2012-18)—a horse can be counted here as an A Runner more than once, in fact every year its earnings exceed the 2% threshold, up to seven—is so far in front of everybody else in this category he might as well be in a different race.

Only six other sires clocked up more than 95 A Runners over the seven-year period: Dubawi (136), Tapit  (125), Kitten's Joy  (107), Medaglia d'Oro (105), War Front (103), and Giant's Causeway (96).

Galileo is also over 100 clear, with 455 ABC Runners, followed in this category by Tapit (347), Dubawi (299), Giant's Causeway (277), Kitten's Joy (274), and Speightstown  (265). The youngest sires among the top 50 by number of A Runners are Curlin (first foals 2010, 63); F2010 Into Mischief  (55, with his first four crops averaging just 35 foals); F2013 Uncle Mo (51); F2011 Sea The Stars (49); F2011 (Northern Hemisphere) Fastnet Rock (43); F2014 Frankel (42); F2012 Quality Road  (41); and F2010 New Approach (39).

Among the top sires by number of ABC Runners, the youngest among the top 50 are F2010 Curlin (198) and F2010 Into Mischief (157).

Among the top sires of 2-year-olds, calculated by tabulating the ages of each of their ABC Runners, War Front (3.68) is the top sire by 2-year-old ABC Index, with Galileo (3.53) in second. In fact, Galileo (2.46) is also second, this time to Frankel (3.13), by 3-year-old ABC Index. That probably tells us why he is such a great sire. There has probably never before, at least in the modern era, been a dominant sire of classic winners who was also a dominant sire of champion 2-year-olds.

Interesting names come into the picture when considering the top sires by age ratings. After War Front and Galileo, Choisir (3.09) ranks third by 2-year-old ABC Index, followed by California sire Square Eddie  (3.03); Germany's Soldier Hollow (2.92) and another German sire, Areion (2.64) among the top 10; Canada's Silent Name (2.87); Uncle Mo (2.67) and Into Mischief (2.65); and a New Mexico sire, Roll Hennessy Roll (2.56). Scat Daddy (2.53) and top North American second-crop (first foals of 2015) sire Violence  (2.46) come next, the latter tied with California Chrome 's damsire, Not For Love (2.46).

Among the top sires by 3-year-old ABC Index, the most competitive group since the highest percentage of each foal crop runs at 3, after Frankel (3.13) and Galileo (2.46) are: Curlin (2.35), top North American sire by 3-year-old ABC Runner Index; Dubawi (2.25), who is tied with a little-known Florida-based son of Indian Charlie named Adios Charlie  (2.25); Uncle Mo (2.22); Tapit (2.20); War Front (2.17); the aforementioned Silent Name (2.13); and Into Mischief (2.11).

The next 10 on this list are also a very strong group of sires: Medaglia d'Oro, Speightstown, Pioneerof the Nile , Ghostzapper , the aforementioned Square Eddie, Sea The Stars, top European second-crop sire Camelot, Lope de Vega, Quality Road , and Twirling Candy .