Making Money Betting Mutuel Field in Derby Future Wager

Horses streak past the finish line for the first time in the 2014 Kentucky Derby. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
With Christmas on the horizon, it’s quite a task to even think about spring.
But I’ll admit, this weekend’s initial Kentucky Derby Future Wagering pool has thoughts of the first Saturday in May buzzing in my mind.
While trying to pick the Derby winner more than five months before the race can be likened to finding a needle in a haystack, this first KDFW pool, which ends Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, is actually a great wagering opportunity on two levels.
For one, there’s the win pool. The bet is structured to offer wagers on 23 separate betting interests and one huge mutuel field entry that includes every other horse that turns three in 2015.
In news that’s hardly a bulletin, betting interest No. 24 – the mutuel field – is the way to go, even with all those 20-1 and 30-1 prices on the board.
The field has been the favorite in the first pool of the first 15 editions of the KDFW, and on eight occasions it has produced the winning horse.
Last year marked the first time there was KDFW wagering in November, and, surprise, surprise, the field won at 4-5 odds.
As measly as that might sound, given how much luck each of the 23 separate entries will need just to make it to the starting gate, much less win the Derby, 1-5 odds would be a bargain on that many horses.
As of 2:30 p.m. Saturday, the field was 6-5, meaning a payoff of about $4.20. While those odds figure to drop before wagering closes on Sunday, even if they match last year’s $2 return of $3.60, it’s a nice return.
Look it this way, if you put $50 on the field, even if it pays $3.60 again, after the Derby you’d have $90 waiting for you, even if you took an 0-for on your bets that afternoon.
In a sense, you should treat it as a 6-month CD on $50. At the end of that term, these days your friendly, neighborhood bank might fork over $50.05. Meanwhile, the “interest” from banking on the field gets you $90. Not bad, right.
The exacta offers an even better deal.
As impossible as it might seem to predict the first two finishers in the Derby at a time when Thanksgiving Day leftovers are still in the fridge, the best part of this wager is that you don’t have to pick the first two finishers to collect.
Because of the mutuel field, the KDFW exacta could in theory payoff on the winner and the horse that finishes 20th. Really.
Last year, of the 23 separate entries in the November pool, only one of them, Ride On Curlin, broke from the starting gate in the Run for the Roses. Since the exacta cannot include two field horses, if a field horse wins, then the bottom of the exacta is completed by the best finisher among the 23 separate interests.
Heading into last year’s race, the only exacta possibilities were the field over Ride On Curlin or Ride On Curlin over the field. As it turned out, California Chrome provided a win for those who backed the field and Ride On Curlin completed the exacta while finishing seventh. The exacta payoff was $203.
What this means is that if there’s a horse you like, by hooking him up with the mutuel field in the exacta your choice could possibly trail throughout and you could still cash.
As of Saturday, the exactas with the field on top were paying between $54 and $156. The will pays with the field second were ranging from $63 and $474.
In specific terms, while Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red was 8-1 in the win pool, his exacta was paying $94 with him over the field and $70 with him finishing second to the field.
TEXAS RED WINNING JUVENILE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Look at it this way: for a $20 investment, you could bet a $6 exacta box on Texas Red and the field and $8 to win on Texas Red. If Texas Red triumphs, you’d collect $72 in win money and then another $282 if a field horse completed the exacta. If a field horse wins and Texas Red finishes 20th, but is the best finisher among the 23 separate horses, you can pocket $210.
Anytime you can take home a payoff like that on a horse that merely shows up, it’s worth chasing.
Figuring out who will be the best of the 23 separate entries, that’s the tricky part.
Thanks to the field bet, the strategy is the simple part.
And now, with that out of the way, hand me my winter coat. I have some holiday shopping to do.