A last-to-first victory, especially in a graded stakes, can bring a variety of opinions.
Was it talent-driven? Was it trip-driven? Was it a combination of both?
For Sham Stakes (G3) winner Gunmetal Gray, we might get a better idea Feb. 2 in the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park.
In the one-mile Sham, Gunmetal Gray was 6 3/4 lengths behind leader Savagery through a half-mile and four lengths behind second-to-last Easy Shot, then rallied wide in the stretch to pass them all and win by a length.
"The old saying of 'the pace makes the race,'—that's around because it's true," said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who owns Gunmetal Gray in partnership with Pearl Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds. "In one race, the pace may be entirely different than another race. That kind of thing is important, and the post you draw is important. Where the speed is lined up is important. As far as a single horse goes, all of those things are considerations and might determine how the race is run."
The Hall of Fame trainer didn't indicate which category the Sham fell into, considering those parameters, but pointed to the fact that the Santa Anita main track this season has played fairly for all types, and the class the son of Exchange Rate showed prior to the Sham when he finished second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and fifth in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).
"We're just fortunate our horse had a place to run and finished up well," Hollendorfer said. "A lot of times, the Santa Anita main track has been so speed-biased—not this year, but in the past—but this year horses have been winning on the lead, midpack, and from behind.
"(Gunmetal Gray has) established that he has the credentials to run in these better races at Santa Anita, and that's a pretty significant thing, considering our horses ship around the country and win big races."
BALAN: Gunmetal Gray Closes From Last to Take Sham Stakes
To find the winner's circle again Saturday in the 1 1/16-mile dirt test for 3-year-olds, Gunmetal Gray will have to defeat another likely short-priced entrant from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert. In the Sham it was Coliseum, and in the Lewis he'll have to tussle with Michael Lund Petersen's Mucho Gusto.
The Mucho Macho Man colt won his debut at Los Alamitos Race Course before a 1 1/2-length score in the Nov. 17 Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar, then wrapped up his season with a runner-up effort to stablemate Improbable in the Dec. 8 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1).
BALAN: Mucho Gusto Shrugs Off Rivals in Bob Hope Stakes
"This is a good spot for him. The Bob Lewis is like the tip-off to the season," Baffert said of Mucho Gusto. "This is when we start to get serious. The next two (the grade 2 San Vicente and grade 1 Santa Anita Derby) will be the tough ones. We'll run here this weekend and probably go on the road with him."
As for a potential wet track Saturday—rains are expected to hit Southern California late in the week and continue through the weekend—both Baffert and Hollendorfer were optimistic.
Baffert said the only time Mucho Gusto has run on a sloppy track was his workout at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-olds in Training Sale, which went so well it inspired Petersen to plunk down $625,000 for the colt. Hollendorfer said Gunmetal Gray is "bred for it."
Rounding out the field are maiden winners Kid Cantina, Magnificent McCool, Easy Shot, and Nolo Contesto.
Santa Anita Park, Saturday, February 02, 2019, Race 6Entries: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3)
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M/L
1
1Kid Cantina (CA)
Geovanni Franco
120
Librado Barocio
20/1
2
2Magnificent McCool (KY)
Flavien Prat
120
Doug F. O'Neill
8/1
3
3Easy Shot (KY)
Rafael Bejarano
120
J. Keith Desormeaux
8/1
4
4Gunmetal Gray (KY)
Mike E. Smith
124
Jerry Hollendorfer
9/5
5
5Mucho Gusto (KY)
Joseph Talamo
122
Bob Baffert
8/5
6
6Nolo Contesto (KY)
Joel Rosario
120
John W. Sadler
5/2