Number of Favorites Appear Vulnerable in Feb. 9 Stakes

There's plenty of stakes action to keep horseplayers busy betting Feb. 9. 

It's Festival Preview Day at Tampa Bay Downs, with four stakes on tap including the Sam F. Davis (G3) and the $150,000 Suncoast, which are qualifying points races (10-4-2-1) for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Santa Anita Park has a graded-stakes triple-header consisting of the Las Virgenes (G2), where Bellafina is tabbed at 2-5 to pick up 10 Kentucky Oaks points; the Thunder Road (G3T); and the San Marcos (G2T) which was postponed for a week because of inclement weather.

Gulfstream Park runs two turf stakes: the Suwanee River (G3T) for fillies and mares and the El Prado for males. The El Prado is the penultimate race of a Rainbow Pick 6 with a mandatory payout. Going into Friday, there had been no single-ticket payout since early January, and the carryover had snowballed just north of $1.4 million. Field sizes for Saturday's Rainbow 6 are 14x9x12x8x13x12, which works out to 1,886,976 potential combinations. In trying to whittle that down just a bit to a couple hundred or so, my initial thought is to try and skate by the El Prado using four: Mr Cub (5), Siem Riep (6), Hembree (8) and Krampus (9) (though I wish Krampus didn't have a rider named who is 0-for-the-meet).

The multiple stakes-winning mare Rymska was cross-entered in the Suwanee River and the Lambholm South Endeavour (G3T) at Tampa Bay. She's 3-5 (morning-line) for the former, but only a slight 5-2 choice in the latter. It would make sense for her to opt for the easier spot, especially since she won her only prior start at Gulfstream. At any rate, it's of no concern to Rainbow 6 players since the race is not part of the sequence.

If all that's not enough, sprinters are highlighted in the $100,000 King Cotton at Oaklawn Park and the $150,000 Jimmy Winkfield at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Let's go around the horn with some wise-guy opinions that go against the chalk.

Tampa Bay (Tam, race 8, 3:50 ET): Heart to Heart (7) ran his heart out when third as the 11-10 choice in the Tropical Turf (G3T). He was behind the eight-ball after breaking poorly that day, and the trouble comments at the start are beginning to add up for the durable $2 million earner. This looks like a tougher spot due to the presence of Inspector Lynley (2), who won this race two years ago, and Qurbaan (4), who took the Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2T) last September and comes off a solid second in the Fort Lauderdale (G2T).

A - 2, 4

B - 7

Suncoast (Tam, race 9, 4:22 ET): Sweet Diane (9) is stuck on the far outside as the 3-1 favorite, and while she can certainly win this with a reprise of her sharp placing in the Hut Hut, there is a short run to the first turn and she may get hung wide early. In addition, 7-2 second-choice Winning Envelope (2) has never run on dirt.

It's a good spot to go shopping, especially since everyone besides Sweet Diane won their previous start. At anything near the 8-1 quote, Her Royal Highness (1) rates a look as the field's only two-time winner on dirt. The only filly to have finished in front of her, Needs Supervision, recently annexed the Silverbulletday Stakes.

Sam F. Davis (Tam, race 11, 5:25 ET): Knicks Go (3) is 5-2 to rebound from an off-the-board effort as the favorite in a sloppy renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and the question is whether that misfire was due to the track condition. Prior to that, he won the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) in a romp at 70-1 and ran second in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at 40-1.

I wonder how cranked up Knicks Go is at this point, and the fact that he is a free-running sort in a matchup with several other speed horses could be problematic.

I'm interested in both homebreds from Godolphin, the Eoin Harty-trained Cave Run (4) and the Tom Albertrani-trained Kentucky Wildcat (6). Cave Run won big at first asking going six furlongs, and a few weeks later ran third in the Pasco behind Win Win Win, who lowered Tampa Bay's track record for seven furlongs to 1:20.89 that afternoon. Kentucky Wildcat, meanwhile, improved with every start during a three-race campaign at 2.

So Alive (8) added blinkers for a win over the track last month. He has to be considered for Todd Pletcher, who has won this event six times.

A - 4, 6

B - 3, 8

Jimmy Winkfield (Aqu, race 8, 4:34 ET): Haikal (3) is the 9-5 choice on the strength of a good-figure maiden win second time out, plus the fact that his half brother Takaful developed into the winner of the 2017 Vosburgh Invitational (G1) for the same connections, Shadwell Stable and Kiaran McLaughlin.

The problem is that Haikal has so far been a one-run closer unable to gain striking position by the pre-stretch call. In both races, he was still in the rear-half of the field and more than six lengths from the lead at the eighth-pole.

On the other hand, Tikhvin Flew (4) showed fine tactical speed in his recent debut victory at Saturday's seven furlongs, and his subsequent work pattern—a bullet five-eighths followed by a more moderate half-mile—mirrors how he trained leading up to that initial outing.

Gates of Dawn (7) takes a sensible cutback in distance after weakening late in the one-mile Jerome. His trainer, John Servis, won this race last year with A Different Style.

Joevia (2) may be overlooked because of a pedestrian figure for a debut win in the slop last July, but could easily improve off that early-summer baby race many months later, and he has put in several bullet works lately.

A - 4, 7

B - 3

C - 2