Breaking the Bank: Live Longshots and Dime Supers

Breaking the Bank - featuring data courtesy of Equibase - highlights the biggest scores of the past week in racing. (Fair Grounds photo by Eclipse Sportswire) 
Last week served as a reminder that you can strike for a big score on 10-cent minimum bets and also that the next big longshot might be only a race away.
For anyone who has spent more than a handful of afternoons at the local track, there has almost certainly been a race or two where you stood behind a bettor making several dozen 10-cent superfecta bets as the minutes until post time ticked away and sweat beaded upon your forehead.
Most of us have felt the frustration of missing out on a race or even the threat of not getting a bet in before post time, but this blog — specifically the data in the table — has shown me that dime superfectas can be incredibly profitable.
Case in point: Race 10 at Fair Grounds on Nov. 29. One lucky bettor cashed a $28,177.50 ticket for the 10-cent superfecta on this race, which was won by 61.40-to-1 bomb Andy Roo Roo. In fact, each of the top four finishers left the starting gate at double-digit odds.
Andy Roo Roo closed from 11th and caught leader Tensas Evidence (17-to-1) in the stretch en route to a three-quarter-length win. Delbert finished third at 27.40-to-1 with Professor Trek closing from 10th to finish fourth.
Andy Roo Roo reinforced the importance of recent form when handicapping. Although he was beaten handily in two previous starts last winter at Fair Grounds, the Rossini gelding entered the six-furlong race off a win at the same $5,000 claiming level at Delta Downs, this time at a mile. Those who saw a win in the first line of Andy Roo Roo’s past performances and thought he was worth a flier at 61.40-to-1 were rewarded handsomely, none more so than the horseplayer who cashed the winning superfecta ticket.
The $2 trifecta paid a whopping $31,188.40, which was trumped on our table below by Race 10 at Retama Park on Nov. 29, which produced the top reported $2 trifecta payout of $118,165.80 and $2 superfecta payout of $83,285.80.
Both of those numbers seemed high to me at first glance, and it turns out neither pool had as much total money in it as the reported payout. Retama, I discovered, offers the trifecta at a 10-cent minimum, which meant in this case the 10-cent trifecta returned $5,908.20 to a pair of lucky bettors (or perhaps one who played the ticket twice). 
The superfecta also was an instance where the pool didn’t mesh with the reported payout, so some simple math showed that the winning tickets were a pair of 10-cent minimum superfecta bets that cashed for $4,164.25.
Let’s take a quick look at the race itself. Devils Jewel pressed the pace and edged away to win by three-quarters of a length at 25.90-to-1 odds with Monster House rallying to finish second at 21.10-to-1. The trifecta got a significant boost when Sardalucky (7.60-to-1) nipped pacesetting 9-to-5 favorite Our Romeo by a nose for third.
Funny thing about that card at Retama was when I first looked and saw “RET and 11/29/14” in five different spots on the table below, I assumed they all were connected, especially since it came in the categories of win, place, exacta, trifecta and superfecta.
How’s this for a coincidence? The race immediately preceding the Retama one discussed above also popped for three different top payouts for the period.
Ras’s Rebel caught 2.80-to-1 co-second favorite Meme Jo in the final strides of Race 9 to win by a nose at 77.80-to-1 odds. Ras’s Rebel paid $157.60 for a $2 win bet and $52.20 to place. He also eyed an exacta that cashed for $2,306.40 for a $2 bet.
Races 9 and 10 at Retama prove that lightening can strike twice at the racetrack.
(Blog continued below table)
Top Payouts for the Week Ended Nov. 30

Wager
 Wager Amount 
 Payoff 
Track
Date
Race#

Win
 $2.00
 $157.60
RET
11/29/14
9

Place
 $2.00
 $52.20
RET
11/29/14
9

Show
 $2.00
 $42.20
FL
11/24/14
9

Exacta
 $1.00
 $315.70
DED
11/25/14
10

Exacta
 $2.00
 $2,306.40
RET
11/29/14
9

Quinella
 $1.00
 $113.00
TUP
11/30/14
4

Quinella
 $2.00
 $320.20
DMR
11/27/14
3

Trifecta
 $0.50
 $1,880.20
DED
11/29/14
7

Trifecta
 $1.00
 $3,062.80
ZIA
11/29/14
9

Trifecta
 $2.00
 $118,165.80
RET
11/29/14
10

Superfecta
 $0.10
 $28,177.50
FG
11/29/14
10

Superfecta
 $1.00
 $33,198.10
WO
11/26/14
7

Superfecta
 $2.00
 $83,285.80
RET
11/29/14
10

Daily Double
 $1.00
 $315.20
DED
11/29/14
10

Daily Double
 $2.00
 $1,441.20
MVR
11/29/14
8

Pick 3
 $0.50
 $936.45
MVR
11/29/14
8

Pick 3
 $1.00
 $2,515.05
WO
11/29/14
4

Pick 3
 $2.00
 $9,251.20
CD
11/30/14
9

Pick 4
 $0.20
 $2,073.14
HAW
11/29/14
5

Pick 4
 $0.50
 $5,093.65
DED
11/25/14
10

Pick 4
 $1.00
 $8,301.90
ZIA
11/25/14
11

Pick 4
 $2.00
 $125,636.80
CD
11/30/14
11

Pick 5
 $0.20
 $5,075.86
HAW
11/29/14
5

Pick 5
 $0.50
 $31,163.85
CD
11/26/14
11

Pick 5
 $1.00
 $16,179.50
MNR
11/24/14
8

Pick 5
 $2.00
 $112,511.00
AQU
11/28/14
5

Pick 5 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $2,091.88
LRL
11/27/14
9

Pick 5 Jackpot
 $0.50
 $17,532.00
FG
11/29/14
10

Pick 6
 $0.20
 $10,010.80
HAW
11/29/14
9

Pick 6
 $1.00
 $109.60
TUP
11/25/14
8

Pick 6
 $2.00
 $56,223.60
DMR
11/28/14
8

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $8,069.14
GPW
11/28/14
10

Super High Five
 $0.50
 $2,627.00
MNR
11/25/14
8

Super High Five
 $1.00
 $27,005.20
DMR
11/29/14
9

Super High Five
 $2.00
 $2,559.80
MNR
11/26/14
8

Click here for a complete list of racetracks with abbreviations.

© 2014 Equibase Company LLC, all rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally is accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to their attention.  

Before signing off until next week, let’s take a look at a sequence at Churchill Downs that led to a couple of big multi-race scores on Nov. 30. The $2 Pick 4 for Races 8-11 returned a reported $125,636.80 and the $2 Pick 3 for Races 7-9 produced a $9,251.20 payout.
The Pick 4 had only $80,545 total bet into the pool, so we can easily figure that the two winning tickets were for the 50-cent minimum bet and paid a healthy $31,409.20.
Click here for the Equibase charts from Nov. 30 at Churchill
Back-to-back $30-plus winners in Races 8 and 9 keyed both sequences.
Killingit (16.20-to-1) pressed the pace and shook clear in the eighth race with the favored 3-to-2 entry coming in last and second-to-last in the 12-horse field.
Ruble followed in the ninth race by defeating 2.40-to-1 favorite Double Ours at odds of 18.10-to-1.
Killingit finished second and third, respectively, in two previous starts at essentially the same level and both at one mile on a dirt main track. You could make a strong case that he was a pretty significant overlay given two solid efforts in races very similar to this 1 1/16-mile dirt race.
Ruble would have been a little tougher to identify as a potential winner in Race 9, but there were some positives. He did have a win earlier this year and came from the barn of a strong trainer (Ian Wilkes) with the services of an elite rider (Julien Leparoux). The Exchange Rate gelding finished sixth and third, respectively, in his two previous races, but both times he was beaten by less than five lengths.
I try (but frequently forget) to take a longer look at any horse who is above 10-to-1 odds that lost its last race by less than five lengths. I’ve found quite a few gems for exotic bets that way, and both Killingit and Ruble qualified as did 61.40-to-1 Andy Roo Roo.

Commonly Used Gambling Terms

Account wagering – Betting by internet or phone, in which a bettor must open an account and deposit money with which to bet.
Across the board – A bet on a horse to win, place and show. If the horse wins, the player collects three ways; if second, two ways; and if third, one way, losing the win and place bets. Actually, three bets.
Bounce – An especially poor performance on the heels of an especially good one.
Box – A betting term denoting a combination bet whereby all possible numeric combinations are covered for certain horses.
Bridge jumper – A person who wagers large amounts of money, usually on short- priced horses to show, hoping to realize a small but almost certain profit. The term comes from the structure those bettors may seek if they lose the bet.
Chalk – Betting favorite in a race.
Chalk player – Gambler who wagers on favorites.
Daily Double (or Double) – Type of bet calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races.
Exacta – A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked.
Exacta box – A wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are selected.
Exotic (bet) – Any bet other than win, place, or show that requires multiple combinations. Examples of exotic wagers are trifecta, Pick 6, Pick 4.
Handle – Amount of money wagered in the pari-mutuel system on a race, full day of races, or entire racing season at a track.
In the money – A horse that finishes first, second or third.
Key horse – A single horse used in multiple combinations in an exotic bet.
Morning line – The starting odds set by the track handicapper.
On the board – Finishing among the first three.
On the nose – Betting a horse to win only.
Overlay – A horse whose odds are greater than its potential to win.
Pari-mutuel – System of wagering where all the money is returned to the bettors after deduction of track and state percentages.
Parlay – A multi-race bet in which all winnings are subsequently wagered on a succeeding race.
Part wheel – Using a key horse or horses in different, but not all possible, exotic wagering combinations.
Pick (6 or other number) – A type of multi-race bet in which the winners of all the included races must be selected. Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6 are commonly used by tracks in the United States.
Place bet – A bet on a horse to finish first or second.
Quinella - Bet in which the first two finishers must be picked in either order.
Show bet – A bet on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.
Speed Figure – A metric that rates a horse’s performance in a race, which is determined by a combination of the horse’s performance and the level of competition he/she competed against.
Trifecta – A bet in which the first three finishers must be selected in exact order.
Trifecta box – A trifecta wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are bet upon.
Underlay – Horse whose odds are more promising than his potential to win.
Win – A bet on a horse to finish first.
Wheel – Betting all possible combinations in an exotic wager using at least one horse as the key.