Just like fans, handicappers, and pretty much everyone else who has observed Paradise Woods' racing career, trainer John Shirreffs doesn't know what to expect Feb. 16.
Few horses in training have been as brilliant and befuddling at various times during their careers as the 5-year-old Union Rags mare, who was previously trained by Richard Mandella before she moved to Shirreffs' care in late 2018.
Mandella, who trained her to standout grade 1 wins in the Santa Anita Oaks (by 11 3/4 lengths over the likes of champion Abel Tasman) and the Zenyatta Stakes (5 1/4 lengths) and a third-place finish in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) in 2017, also saw her go through various misfires he often attributed to her "temper"—an 11th as the favorite in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), a sixth in the Torrey Pines Stakes (G3), and far-back finishes in each of her three 2018 starts.
Shirreffs will get his first shot in Saturday's $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park.
"Everybody knows about her temperament. I don't think that's a big secret," Shirreffs said with a laugh. "Her temperament is her temperament. I think that's a good thing because she's sharp."
As for Paradise Woods' inconsistency on the racetrack, Shirreffs said he is working with a clean slate. All he can judge is what he's seen in training since December, which he wasn't all that eager to share, and he's unsure how that will translate to a race day for the mare owned by Steven Sarkowsky, Martin Wygod, and Pam Wygod.
"She was a multiple grade 1 winner before she even came to my barn, so there's not a lot of factoring going on. You're just hoping not to make mistakes. … I don't know if you can do that in the mornings, really," Shirreffs said of addressing Paradise Woods' past idiosyncrasies, specifically her inability at times to settle during races. "Afternoons are so different. Every trainer in the world tries to do the best they can in the mornings.
"In the end, it's up to the horse. I've never run her, so to tell you the truth, it'll be an exciting day."
Unfortunately for her connections, Paradise Woods will not be in an easy spot in the seven-furlong dirt test at Santa Anita.
Not only did she draw the rail, but back from last year's Santa Monica, where Paradise Woods finished fourth, are the top two finishers—4 1/2-length winner Selcourt and Marley's Freedom.
BALAN: Selcourt Speeds to Santa Monica Victory
Selcourt didn't race again until the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), where she finished 12th. In her 2019 debut, she came in second to the Shirreffs-trained Spring Lily after a stumbled start in the Kalookan Queen Stakes.
While Selcourt was away, Marley's Freedom moved to the barn of trainer Bob Baffert and developed into arguably the best female sprinter in the country (although she finished second to Filly & Mare Sprint winner Shamrock Rose in the Eclipse Award voting). In her five starts with Baffert, the daughter of Blame won four graded events on four racetracks (the highlight being the grade 1 Ketel One Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga Race Course), and her only loss was a fourth (a half-length behind Shamrock Rose) despite a trying wide trip in the Filly & Mare Sprint.
But Marley's Freedom isn't the only grade 1 winner entered by Baffert for the Santa Monica. He'll also have Phoenix Thoroughbreds' Dream Tree, the winner of the 2017 Starlet Stakes (G1) who came into the Dec. 26 La Brea Stakes (G1) undefeated in five starts. After showing early speed, she tired harshly and finished last of eight in her 3-year-old finale.
Rounding out the graded entrants are the past two winners of the La Canada Stakes (G3), Mopotism and the Manitoba-bred dynamo Escape Clause, who earned her first graded win in the Jan. 12 La Canada.
BALAN: Escape Clause Dominant in La Canada Stakes
Owner-trainer Don Schnell has brought Escape Clause, a Going Commando mare, back to his Turf Paradise base between her races since she began competing in Southern California late in 2018 and did the same after the La Canada. Schnell considered starting her in the Feb. 18 Bayakoa Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park but didn't like the type of travel it would take to get there from Arizona—either via a long van ride or by shipping to Los Angeles to then fly to Arkansas.
Schnell admitted his plan is to use the Santa Monica as a prep for the March 16 Beholder Mile Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, but the ample speed in the race could set up well for Escape Clause.
"Bottom line is, it's not even our distance, but we wanted to give her a prep for the Beholder—which may even be tougher, but that's her distance," Schnell said of the two-turn Beholder. "I'm hoping we can sit off the pace, probably more than usual, because they're going to be scooting. She'll relax and she'll be coming at the end. How many she'll get, I don't know. We'll see.
"But they won't be putting on my gravestone, 'Coulda, woulda, shoulda.'"
Santa Anita Park, Saturday, February 16, 2019, Race 9Entries: Santa Monica S. (G2)
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M/L
1
1Paradise Woods (KY)
Joel Rosario
120
John A. Shirreffs
7/2
2
2Selcourt (KY)
Joseph Talamo
120
John W. Sadler
3/1
3
3Marley's Freedom (KY)
Drayden Van Dyke
124
Bob Baffert
2/1
4
4Dream Tree (KY)
Mike E. Smith
124
Bob Baffert
4/1
5
5Mopotism (KY)
Mario Gutierrez
120
Doug F. O'Neill
12/1
6
6Escape Clause (MB)
Tyler Baze
122
Don Schnell
6/1
7
7Amuse (KY)
Rafael Bejarano
120
Richard E. Mandella
12/1