Buena Vista Stakes Sets up for Late Runners

The stakes schedule is fairly light Feb. 23, with the $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes (G2T) at Santa Anita Park and $100,000 Hal's Hope Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park the only graded races to be run in North America.

The other six-figure affairs are a pair of $100,000 restricted sprints at six furlongs: the Franklin Square for 3-year-old New York-bred fillies at Aqueduct Racetrack and the Downthedustyroad Breeders' Stakes for Arkansas-bred fillies and mares at Oaklawn Park. They are the first and fourth legs of another "Cross Country Pick 5" offered by the two tracks, and will be part of a "Fox Sports Saturday At the Races" show from 4-6:30 pm ET on FS2, along with coverage of the Hal's Hope and Texas Glitter, a $75,000 five-furlong dash for sophomore turf sprinters carded after the Hal's Hope.

Buena Vista (SA, race 8, 4:20 PT): It's a clash of titans where Fahan Mura, 6-1-0 from seven starts over the local course, will go to the front and try to hold off Vasilika, who is 8-1-0 on the same layout and the only mare who has been able to catch Fahan Mura at The Great Race Place.

Fahan Mura (6) is back in her element after being overmatched in the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1T) against males on yielding ground, but will have her hands full early with Ms Bad Behavior, who has been unable to hold clear leads in the stretch three straight times.

The pace scenario favors Vasilika (9) and it could also work to the advantage of Elysea's World (8), who makes her seasonal bow off a trainer change from Chad Brown to Richard Baltas.

The mile distance is a tad short for Elysea's World, whose three graded stakes wins have come at nine furlongs, but she owns the most potent closing kick in the field, has won previously when fresh and reunites with Joel Rosario, who is riding in top form.

At a price, Amandine (6) is worth using as a backup. She didn't run her race when off the board behind several of these in the Megahertz (G3T), perhaps disliking the off going, and prior to that she was overstretched in the American Oaks (G1T) at 10 furlongs.

A - 8, 9

B - 4, 6

Hal's Hope (GP, race 11, 4:58 ET): Layoffs are a major theme in this mile race out of the chute, as Tale of Silence (1), Quip (5) and Prince Lucky (9) were all shut down through the second half of 2018.

Quip scratched out of last week's Mineshaft (G3) after a poor outside draw, and faces older in his first appearance since chasing Justify  through the slop in the Preakness (G1). The Distorted Humor  colt has won both of his previous starts off workouts—a debut victory at 2 and the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) to begin a brief 3-year-old campaign.

If they fire their best shots, Breaking Lucky (3) and Copper Town (7) look like the ones to fear. Last time out, Breaking Lucky spun his wheels behind the leaders around the far turn in a sloppy edition of the Fred Hooper (G3), but found his best stride after wheeling to the far outside and came on for second behind Aztec Sense, who was winning for the ninth straight time. Copper Town is worrisome as a speed horse with a propensity for trouble at the gate, but a clean getaway could put him on the lead in a matchup without a great deal of early speed.

As a potential bomb, Sir Anthony (8) is more appealing than most horses you'll find at 20-1  on the morning line. The versatile and consistent Illinois-bred son of Mineshaft has won four in a row, capped by an upset of Audible at nearly 26-1 early at the meet, and those wins have come on dirt and synthetic surfaces labeled fast, good and sloppy.

A - 3, 7

B - 5

C - 1, 8, 9

Texas Glitter (GP, race 12, 5:28 ET): Yes I am Free (4) and Standup (5) will vie for favoritism off their respective debuts Jan. 17, when the former set a pressured pace and held on to win, and the latter came from out of the clouds to get second.

The backups are R Boy Bode (1) and Never Have I Ever (8), who won their only turf sprints, albeit against maiden claimers. R Boy Bode had a good tightener in his recent return on dirt against Maximum Security, who remained unbeaten after three starts when he romped by over 18 lengths earlier this week. Never Have I Ever was claimed from his winning bow by Jorge Navarro.

A - 4, 5

B - 1, 8

Franklin Square (Aqu, race 8, 4:26 ET): The three main contenders look to be Stonesintheroad (3), Forgotten Hero (4) and Flush (6) in this short field of six.

All three of these lightly raced fillies have displayed similar run-and-gun styles so far. However, Stonesintheroad and Flush benefited in their last races according to RacingFlow.com Closer Favorability Ratios (CFR), which had them rated at 4 on a scale of 1-100. Meanwhile Forgotten Hero prevailed in the Fifth Avenue division of the New York Stallion Series despite bucking a closer-favoring 93 rating.

A - 4

B - 3, 6

Downthedustyroad Breeders' Stakes (OP, race 8, 4:41 CT): The 3-4-5-6 finishers from last year's running reconvene, but of that foursome we're only using Ms Fifty First St. (9) as a backup.

Also featured underneath are the comebackers Superstar Bea (3) and Usual Suspect (6), who have both trained steadily over the Oaklawn surface in preparation for their first starts since July and May respectively. Usual Suspect is first-time Karl Broberg, who sent out 509 winners last season.

The key for us is Georgia's Reward (7), another layoff runner, who makes her first appearance since an off-the-board finish against open company in the slop at Keeneland last fall. She won twice from three starts at Oaklawn last winter including the Rainbow Miss at odds-on.

A - 7

B - 3, 9

C - 6