Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Dec. 18-24

When it comes to non-random forms of gambling, two factors should inspire an investment.

A strong opinion
Fair value

In sports betting, value is relative, but in horse racing, it can fluctuate.
If you think fair odds on a horse you like are 5-1, yet he’s 2-1 on the toteboard, do you still back him with conviction?
The answer to that question can be circumstantial, but most often for me, the response is to pass.
Even if your opinion is strong, fair value is a must. 
Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls! 
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Last Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks won by 10 and pushed the number against the San Francisco 49ers. The Carolina Panthers edged the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but failed to cover. The Philadelphia Eagles were grounded at home by the Dallas Cowboys.
Pro Football Trifecta
Last week: 0-2-1 (.000); Season Total: 19-24-2 (.442)
Sunday, Dec. 21
Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET
In a game that could very well decide the NFC South, I think the Falcons offense can match strides with a Saints team that has proved quite vulnerable at home. Julio Jones set a franchise record for yards against Green Bay, but he was forced to sit out last week with a hip injury. He’s back, and chances are havoc will be unleashed in the New Orleans secondary.
New York Giants (+5) @ St. Louis Rams, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Rams haven’t given up a touchdown in the last three weeks. Their defense has been great, but the offenses they’ve been facing have contributed to the ineptitude. The Giants lost seven straight but won their last two, and the defense has shown some improvement. If Eli Manning can take care of the ball, and that’s a big IF, the Giants should be able to keep this one close.
ELI AND THE GIANTS COULD BE ALL SMILES ON SUNDAY

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Monday, Dec. 22
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Bengals have won four of their last five games, giving up 13 or fewer points in each of those wins, including a blanking of the Browns last week. Peyton Manning is not Johnny Manziel, but he hasn’t looked very fresh in recent weeks. All three of the Broncos losses have come on the road, and the home crowd is going to be rabid for this Monday night showdown. 
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
If you’re a college football fan, it doesn’t get any better than this.
Bowl season is money season.
The blinkers are on and I’m kicking down the stall.
College Football Pick 10 – Let’s Go Bowling!
Last week: (Bowl advance plays pending); Season Total: 48-52-1 (.480)
New Orleans Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette (+1) vs. Nevada (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET, ESPN)
The Ragin' Cajuns are becoming very familiar with the New Orleans Bowl and look to win their fourth consecutive edition of this game by opening up this year's bowl festivities with a win over Nevada. Louisiana-Lafayette finished the season strongly despite losing to Troy, while Nevada finished pretty softly despite blowing out hapless UNLV. I like the Cajuns, and I think New Orleans can be a little too distracting for outsiders.
New Mexico Bowl - Utah State (-10) vs. UTEP (Saturday, 2:20 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Miners are looking for their first Bowl victory in 47 years. I would think they were hoping to draw an easier foe than the Aggies of Utah State. The Aggies defense will control this one from the outset.
Las Vegas Bowl - Utah (-3) vs. Colorado State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Jim McElwain, the Mountain West Coach of the Year, will not be with his former team after taking the job in Florida for this contest. That will hurt but could also inspire the Rams and their amazing pitch and catch combo, which includes outstanding WR Rashad Higgins. Utah has seen far superior competition, and I think that will make a difference in a tight game. I think this one may actually push ... can you even bet on that?
Idaho Potato Bowl - Air Force (+1) vs. Western Michigan (Saturday, 5:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Teams finishing two great turnaround seasons face off in Idaho with this matchup, and these two are extremely evenly matched. Air Force has played up to competition this year (beating Boise State and Colorado State), and will have to contain Zach Terrell and the strong passing game of the Broncos. If the Falcons control the ball, and I think they will, Air Force will win this game.
WILL AIR FORCE HOLD OFF WESTERN MICHIGAN?

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Camellia Bowl - Bowling Green (+2.5) vs. South Alabama (Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
South Alabama's 6th season in the FCS produces a bowl appearance, and it's in the state of Alabama! That's a great story, but won't get them a win. Being in Alabama, and being in your very first bowl in program history, is a lot of pressure for 18 to 22-year-olds. Plus, that offense of Bowling Green is no joke. I think BG, easily.
Miami Beach Bowl - Memphis (-1.5) vs. BYU (Monday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN)
I've been extremely impressed with what's going on in Memphis. The nation of football fans will get to witness the Tigers win easily over bowl season vets BYU. Plus, Miami isn't the best town for a straight-as-an-arrow club and university such as BYU.  
Boca Raton Bowl - Marshall (-10) vs. Northern Illinois (Tuesday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
I love both these teams, and I think this is an excellent match-up. But Rakeem Cato wants to finish what he started, and his Thundering Herd will respond. I expect a double-digit victory for Marshall, given the circumstances, over a very good NIU squad that will see better days in the near future.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Navy (Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Qualcomm will be packed as San Diego State and Navy do battle on the Aztecs home field ... in a Navy city. Donnel Pumphrey is a guy I adore, and Navy will not be able to stop him.
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl - Western Kentucky (-3.5) vs. Central Michigan (Wednesday, noon ET, ESPN)
How can you predict a game being played in the Bahamas — Yes, THE BAHAMAS — between two Midwestern schools? Is Western Kentucky considered Midwestern? Well, they are now, and they also have a vaunted offense. So, in the Bahamas, let's go with the Hilltoppers!
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State (+2.5) vs. Rice (Wednesday, 8:00pm ET, ESPN)
Fresno State is the only team with a losing record to play in a bowl game. And for that very reason, I wanted to pick against them. Just because. But, Fresno State has really played well to round out the season, especially their defense. And Rice? Well, their offense has really sputtered toward the end of the year. A perfect recipe to spring a surprising blowout, let alone a minor upset. 
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
It was another Super Saturday for Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream Park, and we benefitted with a couple of short-priced stakes winners – Mshawish and Liam’s Map. Centrique failed to light to the tote, but we still showed a slight profit for the week.
Last week: 3-2-0-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $19.20 returned)
Season Total: 44-15-6-2 ($2 WPS * $264 wagered * $320.80 returned = $7.29 ROI)
Saturday, Dec. 20
Gulfstream Park - Hallandale, Fla.
Race 8 – Tropical Park Derby, 3:58 p.m. ET
#1 Sky Flight (morning-line odds, 10-1)
He didn’t debut until September, but patience seems to be paying off with this 3-year-old son of Sky Mesa, who showed improvement and versatility in all three Kentucky starts. Jose Lezcano is a nice fit in the saddle, and in a race that appears to be on speed overload, he should sit a relaxed, ground-saving trip from the rail.
Race 10 – Tropical Park Oaks, 4:57 p.m. ET
#4 Dancing House (morning-line odds, 4-1)
Competitive in graded stakes during her 2-year-old season, this 3-year-old daughter of Tapit disappeared until September. She ran big in both of her races this season, and the timing appears right for her to take the next step. She showed uncharacteristic speed in a recent allowance win at Keeneland, and the increased versatility makes her that much more dangerous.
DANCING HOUSE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Fair Grounds - New Orleans, La.
Race 8 – Letellier Memorial Stakes
#2 Promise Me Silver (morning-line odds, 9-5)
The winner of all three starts, at various venues, by a combined margin of 16 lengths, this talented filly has been visually impressive. Take note that jockey Robby Albarado chose this gal over fellow contender I’m a Looker. She gets the edge against a well-matched bunch.