Handicapping Focus on Oaklawn Park Saturday

It's all about Oaklawn Park Saturday, March 16, where two divisions of the Rebel (G2) comprise half of an all-stakes pick four, flanked by the Azeri Stakes (G2) and Essex Handicap, which are each worth $350,000.

All four races are at 1 1/16 miles. The only other graded stakes on the schedule is the Inside Information (G2) for older filly-and-mare sprinters at Gulfstream Park, where Tequilita and Teresa Z are the only entrants to have won graded stakes in the United States, and Mexican-bred Jala Jala tries to follow up on a hard-trying second in the Royal Delta (G3) last month.

The Rebel was split into two $750,000 divisions in reaction to the San Felipe being canceled because of the shutdown at Santa Anita Park. Bob Baffert has a pair of unbeaten odds-on favorites making their seasonal debuts in each one: Improbableis 3-5 in the first heat, and juvenile male champion Game Winner is 4-5 in the second.

The winners of each division receive 37.5 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) on May 4.

Baffert has already won six editions of the Rebel, and if both of his relatively inexpensive 2017 Keeneland September yearling buys ($200,000 and $110,000) run as expected, the pick four won't amount to a life-changing score regardless of what else happens. On the other hand, neither will be fully cranked first time back, and as we've seen countless times, they don't run the races on paper and sometimes stuff happens. That's when ticket structuring can pay off handsomely.

Azeri (OP, race 7, 4:21 CT): Four of the six fillies and mares are grade 1 winners including the last two winners of the prestigious Alabama Stakes (G1), Eskimo Kisses (4) and Elate (5); last year's champion female sprinter Shamrock Rose (6), and hard-knocking Midnight Bisou (2). 

Midnight Bisou, who has never finished out of the money, banked more than $1.5 million at age 3, and returned from a 12-week freshening to take the $300,000 Houston Ladies Classic (G3) after overcoming a slow pace. That win upped her record to 5 for 5 at 1 1/16 miles.

Elate's biggest victories have come at nine to 10 furlongs, so she could find the distance a touch shorter than her best as she starts for the first time since a knockdown-dragout battle with nemesis Abel Tasman in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga Race Course. On the plus side, she gets a break in the weights the way the conditions are written.

Eskimo Kisses failed to fire in the Juddmonte Spinster (G1) first time against older mares and was put away for the season after that. While it's true she capitalized on a perfect pace setup for a last-to-first win in the Alabama, it could be a mistake to dismiss her chances back at Oaklawn, where she won or placed in all three starts last winter.

On dirt, Shamrock Rose has been best as a closing sprinter and it's difficult to envision her beating all three of the others.

A - 2, 5

B - 4

Rebel 1st division (OP, race 8, 4:57 CT): Improbable (9) was a bit slow to settle when stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1), but finished strongly to draw off from Mucho Gusto. The latter flattered that effort after returning to take the Robert B. Lewis (G3) by almost five lengths.

Extra Hope (1) was a distant third to Improbable at Los Al, but got a freshening after that. He came back and skipped along on a sloppy strip to beat preliminary allowance-optional claiming company.

Long Range Toddy (2) captured the $400,000 Remington Springboard Mile to close out his 2-year-old season with three straight wins. He has since run well twice at Oaklawn: a close second in the Smarty Jones, followed by a tough-trip third in the Southwest Stakes (G3) when shuffled back behind a tiring speed horse approaching the stretch.

Galilean (8) has faced restricted or state-bred opposition through four starts thus far, and beat up on a much softer group most recently in the California Cup Derby.

A - 9

B - 1, 2, 8

Essex Handicap (OP, race 9, 5:29 CT): This is the place to cast as wide a net as possible because no one is without flaws, starting with morning-line favorite Giant Expectations (8). He breaks toward the outside with a history of gate problems, and his last win came over 14 months ago when allowed to waltz along on an easy lead in the 2017 San Antonio (G2).

Clustered anywhere from 9-2 to 8-1 are: Dalmore (1), who has never won away from Santa Anita; Hence (2), the deepest of deep closers; Sonneteer (3), also without a win in 14 months; Heavy Roller (6), vastly improved in two starts for Joe Sharp; and Snapper Sinclair (7), who just beat optional claimers for his first win in nearly a year-and-a-half.

We're "buying the race" this way:

A - 1, 6, 8

B - 2, 3, 7, 9

C - 4, 5

Rebel 2nd division (OP, race 10, 6:06 CT): Game Winner (5) showed versatility sweeping all four starts last year. He can duel up front, sit just off the pace, or rally from mid-pack depending on circumstances. Moreover, he's getting weight from Gunmetal Gray, a horse he beat handily twice last fall.

Due to a snafu when entries were taken, according to Daily Racing Form, four of Steve Asmussen's six Rebel hopefuls wound up in this division. The most intriguing is Laughing Fox, an improving $375,000 son of Union Rags  who has won both two-turn starts.

Omaha Beach (6) was a four-time beaten favorite before finally notching his maiden win at 7-10 six weeks ago. He comes off a scintillating six-furlong workout in 1:10 3/5 at Los Al last Saturday.

Our Braintrust (7) adds blinkers after lugging in through the stretch when third in the Withers (G3) first time off a private purchase and trainer change to Mark Casse.

A - 5

B - 2, 6, 7