Long Range Toddy Upsets First Rebel Division
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Photo: Coady Photography
Long Range Toddy (outside) just gets past Improbable in the first of two editions of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
Improbable was going to win the first division of the $750,000 Rebel Stakes (G2).
Under jockey Drayden Van Dyke, the heavily favored chestnut trained by Bob Baffert breezed past a pair of rivals at the top of the lane March 16 at Oaklawn Park and was primed to be anointed as the next big thing.
But the cumulative impact of the trip kicked in during the stretch run as Willis Horton Racing's homebred Long Range Toddy surged in the final furlong and just got up to beat the 2-5 choice in the final strides.
The trip carved out by jockey Jon Court aboard Long Range Toddy was nothing if not masterful.
After a good break from post 2 at 8-1 odds, the Take Charge Indy colt trained by Steve Asmussen had the lead as the field entered the first turn of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel but was being pressured on the outside by Classy John, so Court decided to let the longshot go as Galilean took up pressing duties early in the backstretch.
Court continued to be patient on the rail, as Galilean and Extra Hope both went at the leader through the backstretch run, and the half-mile fraction went in :47.58. Improbable, who was wide in the first turn and four wide through almost all of the second bend, even got the jump on Long Range Toddy, but again Court bided his time behind a wall of horses as the field turned for home.
"I was able to get settled and hoped I had left enough for a big punch. I also hoped I hadn't let him get too far in front," Court said. "Believe me, I was sweating bullets, but I had a lot of confidence in him. I had watched his races and I had worked him before the race. It's great when a plan comes together as well as this one did."
The first to drop out of contention was Classy John, who got burned up by his classy challengers, and the three Southern California shippers—Improbable, Extra Hope, and Galilean—lined up late in the turn to vie for the lead.
Now multiple lengths behind the leaders, Court got Long Range Toddy to the outside, and his colt just started to kick in as Improbable appeared to kick away. But the final furlong was owned by Long Range Toddy, and he got his neck in front to finish the distance in 1:42.49.
"Jon gave him a beautiful trip today, and I love how he earned it late," Asmussen said. "The horse is extremely kind. Jon worked him the other day, and his comment was that he was push-button. The horse was away well and got a good spot. They went about their business, and he relaxed down the backstretch. You could tell coming into the stretch he was loaded. He waited until they all lined out, didn't waste any ground, and wheeled him out late, like he should, and got rewarded for it."
The Rebel was the first win for Long Range Toddy since the Dec. 16 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park, where he made the first four starts of his career. In his first two starts at Oaklawn this season, he came in a neck behind Gray Attempt in the Jan. 25 Smarty Jones Stakes and a troubled third in the Feb. 18 Southwest Stakes (G3).
After a slow break and a rush to the front, Galilean held third, 2 1/4 lengths behind Improbable and a length ahead of Extra Hope in fourth. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John completed the order of finish.
Long Range Toddy has a 4-1-1 record from seven starts and $851,125 in earnings. He was bred in Kentucky out of the winning Unbridled's Song mare Pleasant Song, whose last reported foal was a 2017 full brother to Long Range Toddy.
The Rebel was the first loss of Improbable's career, and the first start of his 3-year-old campaign for WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing, the same connections that campaigned Triple Crown winner Justify . The City Zip colt went undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old, including a score in the Dec. 8 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1).