War of Will Seeks FG Triple in Louisiana Derby

After a weekend of intrigue at Oaklawn Park, where the Triple Crown trail didn't play out as expected, Gary Barber's War of Will is in a unique position ahead of the $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) March 23 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. 

Another emphatic win—after clear victories in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2)—and the War Front  colt could end up as a Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) favorite.

But there's a reason the trio of Fair Grounds 3-year-old preps have only been swept twice since the turn of the century (Friesan Fire  in 2009 and International Star in 2015). Keeping a horse on that path, when little issues can derail any smooth sailing, is hard enough. But coming out on top in all three requires talent and, in most cases, good luck.

"I've been down this road before," said War of Will's trainer, Mark Casse. "You run into little problems. If you run in the Breeders' Cup or late in the year, when do you get them a rest? … But with him, he was doing good, so I ran him. I just run them when they're doing good."

War of Will ran in the Breeders' Cup and again later in the year and continued to roll on once the calendar flipped to 2019. He finished fifth as a maiden in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T), then broke his maiden in his main-track debut at Churchill Downs in late November when he routed a maiden special weight group in the Kentucky slop.

So if War of Will handles himself the way he has during his first two Fair Grounds tries this year, the Louisiana Derby is his race to lose, and he has factors working in his favor.

The main aspect is his tactical acuity. There is a trip that wins the modern Kentucky Derby—speed to be within reach, but ability to settle off the pace—and War of Will has carved it out in each of his last two starts at Fair Grounds. 

In the Risen Star, he was even more impressive because of the difficulty of his draw (post 13), but with speed and ability to get into position, it had little effect. He worked out that just-off-the-pace trip and won by 2 1/4 lengths under Tyler Gaffalione.

"Good horses win when things don't go right. I'm not ready to call him great yet, but he's very good, and they win when things don't go perfect," Casse said. "It helps he's an easy horse to ride, so you're able to maneuver wherever you want him to be. Most of the time, you go into the race saying, 'If things go right, we can win.' But with him, I feel we don't need to worry about that.

"I've trained a couple champions—World Approval and Tepin—and they were that type, too. They can sit a trip and don't need anyone to help them."

Back to challenge in the Louisiana Derby are the four horses who finished immediately behind War of Will in the Risen Star.

Country House, who closed from 12th to finish second, appears to be not only the main challenger but a candidate to take a step forward in the Louisiana Derby. Still lightly raced with just four starts, the Bill Mott trainee showed his inexperience during the Risen Star stretch run as jockey Luis Saez did his best to keep him from lugging in multiple times as he tried to get to War of Will.

Third-place Risen Star finisher Roiland also closed from the clouds to place but has made a habit of breaking poorly. Fourth-place finisher Hog Creek Hustle, another deep closer who finished second in the Lecomte, could improve if he gets clear sailing.

New faces in New Orleans that could have an impact are speedy last-out maiden winner Lemniscate; Sueno, who has finished second in his past two starts, the Southwest Stakes (G3) and the Sham Stakes (G3); and Spinoff, who romped by 11 3/4 lengths in an allowance race last time out Feb. 22 at Tampa Bay Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher.

But if all goes well for War of Will, he should go into the Kentucky Derby with momentum, and his connections will have to rework their game plan to train toward the Run for the Roses.

"This will be his last race before the Derby," Casse said. "We will change things up, and I haven't had to do it because he's been in a nice series. But we'll train him a little harder and probably get some bigger breezes in. But that's not a problem because he'll do whatever you want him to do."

Entries: Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2)

Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, Saturday, March 23, 2019, Race 13

• Grade II
• 1 1/8m
• Dirt
• $1,000,000
• 3 yo
• 5:13 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Roiland (KY)	James Graham	122	Thomas M. Amoss	12/1
2	2Lemniscate (FL)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	122	Kenneth G. McPeek	15/1
3	3Limonite (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	122	Steven M. Asmussen	20/1
4	4Sueno (KY)	Corey J. Lanerie	122	J. Keith Desormeaux	8/1
5	5By My Standards (KY)	Gabriel Saez	122	W. Bret Calhoun	12/1
6	6War of Will (KY)	Tyler Gaffalione	122	Mark E. Casse	6/5
7	7Mr. Money (KY)	Adam Beschizza	122	W. Bret Calhoun	20/1
8	8Country House (KY)	Luis Saez	122	William I. Mott	9/2
9	9Bankit (NY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	122	Steven M. Asmussen	20/1
10	10Spinoff (KY)	John R. Velazquez	122	Todd A. Pletcher	8/1
11	11Hog Creek Hustle (KY)	Miguel Mena	122	Vickie L. Foley	12/1