Three Things to Watch: Louisiana Derby a Test of 'Will'

A victory in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) can ensure a 3-year-old a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), but getting to Churchill Downs can be tricky—and it has nothing to do with Google Maps.

While the March 23 stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course is the first of seven preps that offers 100-40-20-10 points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series to its top four finishers, its timing, six weeks before the Kentucky Derby, can pose a problem in preparing for the Run of the Roses.

Is it best to run in the Louisiana Derby and then train up to the Kentucky Derby, following the lead of last year's winner at Fair Grounds, Noble Indy? He was 17th at Churchill Downs.

Then again, Gun Runner , the 2016 Louisiana Derby winner, followed that same path and was third in the Kentucky Derby.

Yet the only two runners from the Louisiana Derby with a Kentucky Derby victory to their credit in the last 50 years, Grindstone (1996) and Funny Cide (2003), both ran in one more prep before heading to Kentucky. Grindstone was second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), while Funny Cide was runner-up in the Wood Memorial (G2).

Beyond that, if a horse fails to pick up enough points in the Louisiana Derby to crack the Kentucky Derby field, races such as the Arkansas Derby and Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) can provide a final opportunity to pick up those much-needed points. So it's definitely worth noting that the Louisiana Derby is likely the one 100-point prep that may not offer a final glimpse of a Kentucky Derby candidate.

1. Is War of Will the Second Coming of Cigar?

It's uncertain if War of Will is truly unconquerable, invincible, or unbeatable, but so far he's doing a keen imitation of Cigar. Just like the two-time Horse of the Year (1995-96), War of Will has made a quantum leap since switching from turf, where he made his first four starts, to dirt. He's 3-for-3 on the main track, with two of those victories coming at Fair Grounds, and he tops the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 60 points. He overcame post 13 to win the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in his previous start and figures to be an odds-on choice here. His first start on dirt for trainer Mark Casse was last year at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track, and a victory here should move him a step closer to Louisville.

2. Let's 'Start' With What Will Country House Do?

Speaking of Cigar, his trainer, Bill Mott, has one of the top threats in this race in Country House. Second behind War of Will in the Risen Star, Country House has been hampered by a slow start in his past two races. He was 12th early on in his last effort when he rallied five-wide to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind the even-money Risen Star winner. The added distance of the Louisiana Derby should help his cause, but he also needs to put those tardy beginnings behind him or things could get ugly when he's involved in a 20-horse scrum breaking from the gate in the Kentucky Derby.

3. Can Todd Pletcher Keep his Kentucky Derby Streak Alive?

It appears as if Todd Pletcher's 15-year reign as the leading trainer at Gulfstream Park's Championship Meet is about to come to an end, courtesy of Jorge Navarro. Now, his 15-year streak of saddling a Kentucky Derby starter could be in jeopardy. Pletcher's top horse on the leaderboard is Outshine, the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) runner-up, who is a tenuous 14th with 20 points and could lose some ground by the end of the weekend. The seven-time Eclipse Award recipient is represented here by Spinoff, an 11 3/4-length winner of a Feb. 22 allowance-optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs in his first start in six months, and a top-two finish should be enough to ensure Pletcher of stretching his presence at the Kentucky Derby to a sweet 16.