Handicapping all Graded Stakes Pick 4 at Fair Grounds
Image:
Description:
March 23 is the climactic day of the season at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, where the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) are the first 170-point qualifying races (100-40-20-10) for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).
The $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks and the $1 million Louisiana Derby are at the end of an all-stakes pick four that starts with the $400,000 New Orleans Handicap (G2) and $300,000 Muniz Memorial Handicap (G2T).
The only other graded stake in the country Saturday is the six-furlong Hutcheson (G3), which drew a field of five sophmores as the featured attraction at Gulfstream Park. If the six-furlong stakes are your thing, there are three in the Cross Country Pick Five from Aqueduct Racetrack and Oaklawn Park: the Nodouble Breeders' and Gazebo from Oaklawn, and the Cicada at the Big A.
Let's look at the Fair Grounds sequence.
New Orleans H. (FG, race 10, 3:34 CT): The first two finishers from the 2018 Louisiana Derby meet again, and this will be the second start of the year for both Noble Indy (4) and Lone Sailor (2), who were separated by a neck a year ago. Noble Indy's form has unraveled ever since then, while Lone Sailor went on to post in-the-money finishes in several graded stakes before getting up to win the Oklahoma Derby (G3) and rallying mildly in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
A few weeks ago, the deep-closing Lone Sailor had what looked like a classic prep in a slow-paced renewal of the Mineshaft Handicap (G3), finishing sixth as the favorite behind Silver Dust (6). The latter has raced on a once-a-month schedule since last September, and he has held solid form in increasingly tougher spots.
The pace figures to be an honest one set by Mr. Buff (8), whose five wins at the 1 1/8-mile trip are as many as the rest of the field combined. This will be the New York-bred's first start outside his home circuit, though, and he will likely be pressed by Copper Bullet (10), whose initial route try was a sharp second in the Razorback Handicap (G3).
Souper Tapit (3) didn't have the smoothest of trips finishing sixth in the Razorback, but can threaten based on two wins at Gulfstream over the winter, notably the Sunshine Millions Classic.
Bandua (9), cross-entered in the Muniz, rates a look if his connections opt to try him on dirt. His pedigree (by The Factor out of a Seattle Slew mare) and up-close running style are suitable for the surface switch, and he recently worked a bullet half-mile ranked 1/98 over the track.
A - 2, 8
B - 3, 6, 10
C - 9
Muniz Memorial (FG, race 11, 4:10 CT): Bricks and Mortar (7) was probably the best 3-year-old grass horse of 2017, and while he missed virtually all of 2018, he was obviously back in top form taking the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1T) over a bog at Gulfstream.
Bricks and Mortar totes high weight of 125 pounds, two more than Synchrony (3), who is 4 for 4 over the local course and on the same schedule as last year, when he captured the Fair Grounds Handicap (G3T) and Muniz.
Divisidero (2), First Premio (5) and Inspector Lynley (8) are the backups. Divisidero and Inspector Lynley were less than a length apart in two recent meetings. First Premio is a potential rebound play after delivering a peak effort to win the Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap off a layoff, followed by a flat fifth behind Synchrony four weeks later.
A - 3, 7
B - 2, 5, 8
Fair Grounds Oaks (FG, race 12, 4:44 CT): The one to catch and beat is obviously Serengeti Empress (2), who led several of these fillies on a merry chase in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and was eased up late to score by better than four lengths over 23-1 longshot Liora (8).
Liora is the only other graded stakes winner in the field, having upset the Golden Rod (G2) in the slop last fall (at 27-1). She will add blinkers, often a productive equipment addition by trainer Wayne Catalano, and the Candy Ride filly presumably had them on for a bullet five-furlong workout March 12.
The backups are Sweet Diane (4), third in the Suncoast behind the unbeaten Point of Honor; and Eres Tu (6), lightly raced and headed the right way after a decent third in the Rachel Alexandra.
A - 2, 8
B - 4, 6
Louisiana Derby (FG, race 13, 5:13 CT): War of Will (6) has won his first three dirt starts and will try to sweep the local preps after beating a handful of these convincingly in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2).
Spinoff (10) looms the main danger in the wake of an eye-catching return win over first-level allowance/optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs. The son of 2007 Lecomte winner Hard Spun was making his first appearance since running third in the Saratoga Special (G2), and relished the stretch-out to two turns. The fact that Hall of Famer John Velazquez went across the state to ride this Todd Pletcher-trained colt on a weekday indicates this colt is highly regarded, and they teamed up to win this race with Noble Indy last year.
Sueno (4) and Country House (8), the respective runner-ups in the Southwest (G3) and Risen Star last month, figure to be rallying late.
My one wild idea here is Lemniscate (2), a son of 2000 Risen Star winner Exchange Rate, who showed promise in two starts at six furlongs over the main track at Gulfstream before stretching out on turf for a front-running maiden win. He has since come back to post a bullet five-furlong work for Kenny McPeek, who excels with this surface switch.
A - 6, 10
B - 4, 8
C - 2