Despite Race Losses, Baffert's Derby Hand Still Strong

It's that time of the year again.

Most of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) preps are worth 100 points to the winner and two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert has a formidable hand for the Triple Crown that he says he "loves."

Baffert currently has four intriguing candidates for the Kentucky Derby, including three ranked among the top six in the latest National Thoroughbred Racing Association Top 10 3-year-olds poll.

His two leading candidates, 2-year-old champion Game Winner and grade 1 winner Improbable, both suffered their first defeat while finishing second by a narrow margin in separate divisions of the March 16 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but Baffert stands a solid chance of returning to the winner's circle March 24 when he sends out the favored Mucho Gusto in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3), which awards 50-20-10-5 Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers.

"We'll see how he does, though I hate the post (the rail in a field of 10)," Baffert said. "All of the speed horses are next to him. Something has to give there and hopefully he gets the job done."

Owned by Michael Lund Peterson and bred by Teneri Farm and Bernardo Alvarez Calderon, the Kentucky-bred son of Mucho Macho Man  was purchased for $625,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale and has won three of four career starts. Runner-up by five lengths to stablemate Improbable in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) at 2, in his lone effort as a 3-year-old he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park Feb. 2 and is tied for sixth in the NTRA poll.

While the Sunland Derby awards only 50 points to the winner, that should be enough to nail down a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.

The other 3-year-old stakes on Baffert's calendar are worth 100 points for a victory. Improbable, owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International, and Starlight Racing, is headed to the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 13 at Oaklawn Park, while Game Winner, owned by Gary and Mary West, and Roadster are targeting the $1 million Santa Anita Derby April 6.

Whether Roadster runs in the Kentucky Derby will be determined by how he fares in the Santa Anita Derby. The Quality Road  colt has only started three times in his career and his lone start at 3 was a 2 1/2-length win in a March 1 allowance/optional claimer race at Santa Anita Park. Currently with no points, and the Santa Anita Derby worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers, Roadster would most likely need a top-two finish to earn enough points to move on to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

"Roadster has to prove himself. The last prep race is the most important one and he has to show up and run well. He has to be first or second and run a big race. You want to go into the Kentucky Derby off a positive race," Baffert said about the 3-year-old owned by Speedway Stable and bought from breeder Stone Farm for $525,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. "I'm happy with him. I fell behind with him. He's a light, lean horse and it didn't take a lot to get him ready. He put in a very impressive race off the layoff. He ran lights out and has worked well since."

While Roadster could be facing some formidable rivals in the Santa Anita Derby such as Game Winner and Omaha Beach, who beat Game Winner by a nose in the Rebel, Baffert has little interest in shipping east to find potentially easier competition in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland Race Course or the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack.

"He has to earn his way in," Baffert said about Roadster's Kentucky Derby outlook. "I didn't want to ship him. If he runs a good race, fine. If not, we'll think about the Preakness (G1). I'm thinking about the horse and trying to do what's right for him. My main concern is giving the owners the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby and that's what I'm doing."

Though the losses by Game Winner and Improbable were disappointing, Baffert believes both will benefit from the races and take steps forward in their next race.

"You want to win but I was happy with the way they ran and that they showed that they are good horses. April is when the good ones separate themselves from the others. They ran gallant races and got beat but they are still in the hunt. The races didn't take anything out of them," Baffert said. "Game Winner wants to go farther but that was the right trip for him. He wasn't standing right in the gate and got away a half-step slow but then got back into it, showing how good he is. The one that beat him is a good one.

"Improbable was hindered by his post (outside in a field of seven), but got a lot out of it. He's green and a young horse. When Improbable got to the front, he idled a little but maybe it was a little overconfidence. Overall, with the crowd, and all of the excitement in the paddock, it was a mini-Kentucky Derby experience for both horses and it should be educational for them."

While Game Winner tops the NTRA poll, the grade 1-winning Improbable is third after suffering his first loss in four starts when the 2-5 favorite opened a length lead at the eighth pole but was collared in the final yards by Long Range Toddy and lost by a neck.

Improbable, who had not raced since winning the Dec. 8 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1), was purchased for $200,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. A son of City Zip bred in Kentucky by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr., he originally was purchased by Taylor Made Sales Agency for $110,000 at the 2016 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

While the California-based Baffert has a pair of candidates for the Santa Anita Derby, hovering in the background is the reality that Santa Anita has been closed since March 3 and there have been 22 equine fatalities at the meet, which began Dec. 26.

After considerable work on the racing surface, workouts resumed at March 13 and racing is slated to resume March 29. Baffert is hopeful all the work on the racetrack, and measures to improve safety, will result in bringing some "normalcy" back to the sport.

"Even with everything going on, Santa Anita is the best place to get ready for the Kentucky Derby. A lot of it was the rain. That was the main culprit. Hopefully we'll catch a break going forward," said Baffert, who did not lose any horses during the spate of fatalities. "When I didn't like the track, I didn't work my horses, but as trainers we have to be more aware of what's going on out there and don't take the game for granted. This affects everyone in horse racing and we need to work as a team to get back to normalcy.

"If I didn't have confidence in the surface, I would have been out of here by now.  It was an eye-opener for everyone involved but it's an exciting time and we need to get the focus off Santa Anita and put it on the positive things. There's a lot of good things happening in racing and no one mentions it."

And if all does indeed go well for Baffert's horses in their training and final preps, the 66-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner should be well stocked for a run at a sixth victory in the Kentucky Derby.

"It's pretty wide open, but I love my horses. They all get beat and you want them ready in May," Baffert said. "I feel we have a chance and there's nothing more exciting than going to the Kentucky Derby with a horse who has a chance to pull it out."