Three Things to Watch: Road Runs Through Florida, Dubai

The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) makes two diverse stops March 30, taking 3-year-olds to Florida and Dubai for races at opposite ends of the prep spectrum.

While the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners, 24 of them to be precise, the UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) has laid a goose egg. Thirteen horses have traveled from Dubai to Louisville, and not one has finished better than fifth in the Run for the Roses. Will those trends continue? With a deep and solid field in the Florida Derby and a UAE Derby field that lacks a star along the lines of last year's winner, Mendelssohn , it's certainly looking that way.

1. Kentucky Derby, Preakness, or Woody Stephens?

There's surely a great amount of talent in Juddmonte Farms' Hidden Scroll. It's just a matter of how far it will take him. To the Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 miles? Or the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) at 1 3/16 miles? Or the June 8 Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs?

The Florida Derby should determine that path. The horse who looked as big as the Pegasus statue in the track's parking lot when he broke his maiden by 14 lengths around one turn seemed more lifelike when he faded to fourth in the final furlong of the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at two turns. Perhaps a brutal pace contributed to the setback, so the Florida Derby figures to be the test of whether he can carry his speed over a nine- or 10-furlong distance.

Another issue for the son of Hard Spun  is that he'll probably need a top-two finish to earn enough points to wrap up a spot in the Kentucky Derby. If Hidden Scroll turns in a good effort while finishing third or fourth and fails to rack up enough points to crack the field of 20 at Churchill Downs, Juddmonte general manager Garrett O'Rourke said the Preakness is an option. Yet if Hidden Scroll weakens in the stretch once again Saturday, it's probably one-turn miles or sprint stakes that await him in the future.

2. Will There Be a 'Security' Threat?

On one level, Gary and Mary West's Maximum Security is easy to dismiss in the Florida Derby despite winning his three career starts by a combined 34 1/2 lengths. He's coming off wins in starter races, has never raced beyond seven furlongs, and began his career in a $16,000 maiden claimer, which is hardly the proving ground for champions.

But—and this is a major but at Gulfstream Park—he's trained by Jason Servis, who is winning races at a 45% clip (33 of 73) at the meet through March 27. If anyone can coax nine furlongs against graded stakes company out of a 3-year-old from such humble roots, it's Servis. Besides, contrary to what happened in the Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park does favor speed horses, and Maximum Security definitely fits that bill.

3. 17, 18, 19, or 20 Americans? 

The UAE Derby may or may not produce the Kentucky Derby winner, but it could have a profound impact on the complexion of the field. As a 100-40-20-10-points race, the UAE Derby winner has a guaranteed spot in the starting gate. The runner-up will get 40 points, and that should crack the top 20.

Beyond that, the UAE Derby field includes Japan-bred Derma Louvre, whose connections are eager to run in the Kentucky Derby. Even if he's unplaced in Dubai, they might use the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby as their ticket to Louisville as he could hold up as the points leader who also accepts the bid there.

Then there's the European Road to the Kentucky Derby, which could send another foreign runner to Churchill Downs. While it's unlikely all four will be on hand on the first Saturday in May, there's the potential for those spots going to international horses, depending on what happens in the UAE Derby. As a result, there would only be 16 spots for American runners, and the cutoff from a points perspective could jump into the 40s based on the 42, 40, and 44 points belonging to the No. 16 entrant the last three years.