Betting the Jerome Stakes on a $20 Budget
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El Kabeir won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in his last start. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
For the first few months of every new year, 3-year-olds are the talk of the horse racing world. Within a group of many hopefuls only the best 3-year-olds will emerge as contenders, and ultimately runners, in the Kentucky Derby. On Saturday, we get one of our first look at this year's group of hopefuls in the $200,000 Grade 3 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct - a race that was won exactly 140 years ago by Aristides, the eventual winner of the very first Kentucky Derby.
This year's Jerome Field is headlined by Zayat Stables' El Kabeir. The Florida-bred son of Scat Daddy is the only graded stakes winner in the race, coming off of a victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Prior to that, he finished second to Blofeld (another well regarded horse in this year's 3-year-old crop) in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct.
El Kabeir's game is pretty simple; he likes being on the lead and when he gets to dictate the pace, he runs well. What remains to be seen in the Jerome is whether El Kabeir can establish an easy lead, given the fact that he's drawn out widest of all and that the horse just inside of him, Nasa, showed really good speed from the gate last out. If he faces any pressure at all, it's certainly possible that El Kabeir could tire in the late stages of the Jerome. That said, a few of the longer priced contenders in the race are a bit more appealing from a betting perspective.
Perhaps most intriguing is Ackeret. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez and owned by Pick Six Racing (the same team behind 2013 Jerome winner Vyjack) and Silver Streak Stables, Ackeret will be stretching out to a route distance (longer than a mile) for the first time in his career. If the race sets up as expected, look for Ackeret to sit just off the pace and put in a big late run.
ACKERET BREAKING HIS MAIDEN AT BELMONT
Photo by NYRA/Coglinese Photos
Ackeret blew away a field of first level allowance horses last out at Parx and broke his maiden (won his first race) in similarly easy fashion at Belmont. Sandwiched between those victories is a race that doesn't look great on paper but, in reality, wasn't that bad. He finished fifth in the $100,000 James F. Lewis III Stakes at Laurel Park but made up good ground late on a track that wasn't favorable to closers. The horse who edged him out for fourth was also charging from off the pace and he returned to win a stakes race next out. The winner of the James Lewis, Cinco Charlie, also came back to win another stakes race.
Rounding out our list of top contenders is Ostrolenka. He was out of his element and asked to do too much when he travelled in midpack while extremely wide throughout the Grade 2 Remsen last out. It was unrealistic for him to make any impact on the race, which was run over another speed favoring track. He'd previously raced on or near the lead and had done well, breaking his maiden and winning the $250,000 Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont. Look for an improved effort here with a better trip. Also note that top Aqueduct jockey Jose Ortiz hops off of another contender in here, General Bellamy, to ride Ostrolenka.
Given the fact that our top pick Ackeret is listed at 4-1 on the morning line, we may have to get bold if we want to turn our $20 into a large score. That's what we're going to try to do, anyhow. So, here we go:
$20 Betting on a Budget Wagering Strategy
$4 exacta 7 over 3, 4, 9 ($12 total)
$1 trifecta key 7 with 3, 4, 9 with 3, 4, 9 ($6 total)
$200,000 Jerome Stakes
Saturday, Aqueduct, Race 8, Post time 3:48 p.m. ET
1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt for 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
1
Mini Cosmo (KY)
Angel Arroyo
117
Graham Motion
2
Royal Burgh (KY)
Manuel Franco
115
Todd Pletcher
3
Tencendur (NY)
Jeremy Rose
115
George Weaver
4
Ostrolenka (NY)
Jose Ortiz
119
Todd Pletcher
5
Now We Are Free (KY)
Fernando Jara
117
Michelle Nevin
6
General Bellamy (FL)
Junior Alvarado
115
Bill Mott
7
Ackeret (FL)
Irad Ortiz Jr.
117
Rudy Rodriguez
8
Nasa (PA)
Kendrick Carmouche
119
John Servis
9
El Kabeir (FL)
Calvin Borel
122
John Terranova II