When last seen Feb. 2, the 3-year-old gelding Tax was standing in the winner's circle after the Withers Stakes (G3), looking like a bona fide candidate for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).
Much has happened on the Triple Crown trail since that day at Aqueduct Racetrack, most of it unexpected. Two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert has not won a race in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series since the first Saturday in February. Horses emerging from maiden races won the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2), a division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2). A pair of American horses traveled to Dubai to finish 1-2 in the UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) and land among the top 11 in the Derby points race. Maximum Security, a 3-year-old who started his career in a $16,000 claimer, won decisively in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1).
Against this backdrop of confusion, Tax has been quietly training in New York under the watchful eye of trainer Danny Gargan, re-energizing from his effort in the Withers and pointing for his chance to register another big effort in a prep race and put another former claimer in the Run for the Roses.
All of which happens April 6 back at Aqueduct when Tax and 10 rivals square off in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2), a race that will award 100-40-20-10 qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby to the top four finishers and should send at least two horses—and possibly more—on to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
For his part, Gargan likes what he has seen in Tax, a Kentucky-bred son of Arch, during the last two months. The trainer hopes the two-month spacing between races will be as beneficial as it was in the Withers, which was contested at the same 1 1/8-mile distance as the Wood.
"I gave him time off because I'm a numbers guy. He ran a big number for us in the Remsen (G2), and we gave him two months off and he ran another big number in the Withers. So I believe that by giving him time, he can turn in another big effort and be right there in the Wood," Gargan said. "He's been training phenomenal. He couldn't work any better. He's really good right now. I just hope we get a clean trip."
Like most of the horses in the field, Tax will probably need a 1-2-3 finish to keep the Kentucky Derby hopes alive for the ownership group of Hugh Lynch, Corms Racing Stable, R.A. Hill Stable, and Reeves Thoroughbred Racing. He has just 12 points and is 24th in the battle to land one of the 20 starting berths in the May 4 opening leg of the Triple Crown.
"Everybody is trying to get in the Derby," Gargan said. "It's wide open among the 3-year-olds. It's the most wide open I've seen it in a while, which kind of hurts because everybody is chasing points. We need to be 1-2-3 to get in, and I'm hoping the months off will help us."
Unlike Maximum Security, Tax was claimed when he raced for a $50,000 tag in an Oct. 21 maiden race at Keeneland. He went to Lynch, who prevailed in a six-way shake for the gelding originally owned and bred by Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider. Lynch added his current slate of partners before and after Tax finished a solid third behind Maximus Mischief in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes Dec. 1 at Aqueduct, his first race off the claim and last before he prevailed by a head in the Withers over fellow Wood starter Not That Brady.
Heading the competition are Haikal and Tacitus, two horses who have 50 points and are among the top nine in points. That total should be more than enough to put them in the Derby field, provided all goes well in the Wood and beyond.
Shadwell Stable's Haikal won the March 9 Gotham Stakes (G3) and will be racing around two turns for the first time.
"I'll be disappointed if he doesn't improve at two turns," said Rajiv Maragh, who will ride the homebred son of Daaher . "The great thing about him is that we haven't seen the best of him yet. He hasn't hit his ceiling. So he just might be a superstar horse who gets better each time."
Juddmonte Farms' Tacitus exits a victory for trainer Bill Mott in the Tampa Bay Derby and also has 50 points. Unlike his more heralded stablemate Hidden Scroll, who was knocked off the Derby trail by losses in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby after a huge debut victory, Tacitus' inexperience has not been a hindrance. The Tampa Bay Derby was just the third career start and first in 2019 for the son of 2004 Wood winner Tapit out of the multiple grade 1-winning mare Close Hatches.
Tacitus, who was fourth in his debut, broke his maiden Nov. 10 at Aqueduct, his final start at 2.
"I think the experience that Tacitus got by racing as a 2-year-old put him ahead (of Hidden Scroll) mentally, although Hidden Scroll behaved well at the races. But in a race under pressure of pace conditions, Hidden Scroll might burn a bit more energy midrace than a more experienced Tacitus," said Juddmonte Farms general manager Garrett O'Rourke. "Hidden Scroll always looked faster, but Tacitus had the classic look and Bill always had a confidence that the further they go, the better he will get value from his long, smooth stride. From the day we started training him, his fluent stride was an eye-catcher. Obviously, the expectations for any horse with a pedigree like that of Tacitus brings Derby dreams. Maybe we should have been more specific on which Derby on our wish list!"
Trainer Jason Servis, who stunned the racing world by transforming Maximum Security from a claimer into a Florida Derby winner, will take two swings at picking up another Kentucky Derby starter, sending out the duo of Final Jeopardy and Grumps Little Tots in the 94th edition of the Wood. Neither horse has Derby qualifying points entering a race that has not been won by a Kentucky Derby victor since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
"Who are Gary and Mary West?" is the correct question as to who owns Final Jeopardy, and the son of Street Sense could give them a third Derby starter to go along with Maximum Security and 2-year-old champion Game Winner, who will run later Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Final Jeopardy, purchased for $110,000 from Taylor Made Sales Agency's consignment to the 2016 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, won a March 3 optional-claiming allowance race at Gulfstream Park going a mile last time out and will be making his first start around two turns.
Michael Dubb, Coyle Boys Stable, and Bethlehem Stables' Grumps Little Tots posted a 6 1/2-length maiden win going a mile at Aqueduct Feb.18 in his second start at 3 and fourth overall.
"Both horses are doing good," Servis said. "When Final Jeopardy won at the mile, it was a great race, but it wasn't easy for him. He broke good, was up on the pace, and even though he didn't get to lag back and make that big late run of his, he still went on and won. He's a beautiful horse with a great pedigree, and I could be wrong, but with his pedigree and the way he trains, he'll get the distance.
"'Grumpy's' first two races weren't terrible. He was third to Mind Control in his debut. We gelded him after his second race. First-time gelding, he lost by a nose and then ran real well, so we wanted to take a shot in the Wood. He's a big, lanky horse. Distance shouldn't be a problem. It's the company."
Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the Wood five times, including last year with Vino Rosso, will also send out two starters, saddling Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Outshine, who is 22nd with 20 points, and Overdeliver, the Pasco Stakes runner-up who has no points.
The Wood can be seen on NBCSN as part of a program that also features the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby. The broadcast begins at 5:30 p.m. (ET).