Tip of the Week: Overly Ambitious

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Ambition can get the better of anyone, including a horseman.
As proof, consider the seemingly endless array of horses that are placed in races far too difficult for them. These, of course, are the daily collection of hopelessly overmatched runners whose gargantuan odds can spark wild-eyed dreams of a payoff large enough to fund a vacation to a tropical destination.
Yet for all of the euphoria they can create before the start of a race in the hearts and minds of some folks, in most cases those hopes usually come crashing back to earth once the horses cross the finish line. There are always exceptions, but 75-1 longshots are generally 75-1 longshots for a highly valid reason. One could be that the other horses are too fast and classy and the horse belongs in a more realistic spot. Another might involve a declining form cycle.
Choosing between those two possibilities can sometimes lead to a payoff down the road. Not at 75-1 odds. But, then again, anything towers over the pile of ripped up mutuel tickets created by a 75-1 shot who finishes up the track.
A good example of this angle was offered by Annelle in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 21. The 5-year-old mare had last raced at Gulfstream on Dec. 6 and had finished 12th in a field of 13 at 38.90-to-1 odds.
Ugly, right? But there were extenuating circumstances. Annelle arrived at Gulfstream on the heels of two solid wins at Parx Racing in which she used her sharp early speed to prevail in a $7,500 claimer and then a $12,500 claimer. Off those two victories, Annelle was then shipped south and ambitiously entered in a Claiming Crown stakes with a purse of $108,000. With that much money on the line, Annelle was being asked to take on significantly better competition than she faced at Parx – and she was not up to the task of handling it, beating just one rival.
Now fast forward to Dec. 21, when Annelle returned to the races. This time, she was in a $6,250 claimer and was listed at a morning-line price of 9-2. The question now facing handicappers was whether Annelle could rebound while racing in a much more realistic spot.
A key factor in being optimistic about that possibility involved the fractions of the mile-long Claiming Crown race, which were a stiff :23.35 and :46.08. Annelle led after the opening half-mile but was gassed after that and retreated to the back of the pack.
Meanwhile, in her previous two starts at Parx, Annelle also raced at a mile, but set or pressed the pace through much less demanding half-miles of :48.09 and :48.30 and cruised to the winner’s circle.
Back in a low-level claimer, it seemed logical that Annelle would face a much easier pace scenario and would be tougher to reel in during the stretch run than she was two weeks prior in the Claiming Crown race.
Looking through her past performances, Annelle sported a sharp :59.25 workout at Gulfstream on Nov. 29, indicating she arrived in Florida in sharp form. There was also a jockey switch for the Dec. 21 race to Rafael Hernandez, who is winning races at a 28-percent clip this year.
There were definitely signs that Annelle was nicely positioned to rebound after being overmatched in her last start, and those that heeded them were rewarded when Annelle grabbed the lead at the start and pulled away in the stretch to win in a 6 ¼-length romp.
The payoff? It was $7.40 for every $2 wagered on the 5-2 second betting choice. That was paltry compared with her 38-1 odds in her previous start. But at least this time, when Annelle was placed in a more realistic spot, there was money to be collected at 5-2 not wasted at 38-1.
THE LESSON: Do not discount the possibility that longshots who are ambitiously placed when in good form can quickly rebound from a poor effort when they return to their proper class level.
ANNELLE'S RECENT PAST PERFORMANCES