Three Things to Watch: A Super Saturday of Derby Preps

It's Super Saturday on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Three major stakes—the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2), Toyota Blue Grass (G2), and Santa Anta Derby (G1)—boasting 100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the top four finishers may add some long-awaited clarity April 6 to the Triple Crown chase. Then again, confusion could again be the order of the day—although, at the very least, the bubble will be set up for the final two qualifying races April 13 when the Derby field of 20 will finally come into focus.



1. "Game" Time for Baffert?

The 3-year-old debut of reigning division champ Game Winner did not go exactly as planned. Trained by two-time Triple Crown winner Bob Baffert and owned by Gary and Mary West, the 2-year-old male champion made his first start since winning the Nov. 2 Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and finished second—a nose behind Omaha Beach—in a division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park March 16. Though it was Game Winner's first loss in five career starts, he ran well off a layoff of more than four months. Afterward, Gary West said Game Winner was at about 85% fitness for the Rebel and that he figures to be at 90-95% for the Santa Anita Derby.

In one regard, the Santa Anita Derby is not a must-win for Game Winner, whose 45 qualifying points have likely secured a spot in the Run for the Roses. Yet handicappers will be keeping a close eye on him to see if losing that stretch duel was just a glitch or a sign that he's another juvenile champ/young Breeders' Cup winner who struggles to dominate at 3. The answer is particularly important because Game Winner could be the betting favorite in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), preferred status that belonged to the past six winners of the race.



2. Who Will Punch Their Tickets in the Toyota Blue Grass?

Of Saturday's three preps, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will have the most profound impact on the Kentucky Derby field. None of the 14 starters was among the top 20 3-year-olds in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series after last weekend's preps, and with 100 and 40 points awarded to the top two finishers, at least two of them should be ensconced in the field for the opening leg of the Triple Crown.

Somelikeithotbrown (20 points, 21st), Signalman (18, 23rd), Vekoma (10, 30th), and Win Win Win (10, 31st) are the closest to the cutoff, so the battle for third and fourth in the Blue Grass could produce a very lively stretch duel if they are involved.



3. Will Tacitus Emerge from Hidden Scroll's Shadow?

Go back to February and the sport was buzzing about the possibility of a highly talented, inexperienced Juddmonte Farms colt playing a starring role in the Kentucky Derby. That could indeed happen but not in the expected manner.

Juddmonte's Hidden Scroll was the talk of the industry after winning his Jan. 26 debut by 14 lengths. The hype was so strong that not only was he favored when he made his second start in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), he was also favored in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1), even after finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth. A disappointing sixth-place finish in the Florida Derby knocked Hidden Scroll off the Derby trail, but Juddmonte still figures to be represented on the first Saturday in May.

Tacitus won the March 9 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and, with 50 qualifying points, his spot in the Kentucky Derby is locked up. Yet how he runs in the Wood Memorial will provide evidence of how he would fit against the division's best runners. His victory by 1 1/4 lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby was impressive under any conditions, but to cover the 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.90 in just his third career start and first at 3 speaks well for Tacitus' quality and trainer Bill Mott's work with him.

Yet the question begging for an answer in the Wood involves whether he, unlike Hidden Scroll, can move forward off a powerful performance early in his career and again ignite buzz for a Juddmonte 3-year-old.