Handicapping an all Graded Stakes Cross Country Pick 5

Three of the last four 170-point qualifying races for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) will be run April 6, as juvenile male champion Game Winner goes in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Tacitus looks to prove he's the real deal in the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2), and Vekoma heads a 14-horse renewal of the Toyota Blue Grass (G2).

As you have surely noticed, favorites have been taking it on the chin in many Derby preps. Here is just a partial rundown of the upsetters we've seen over the past couple of months: Harvey Wallbanger (29-1); Well Defined (7-1); Super Steed (62-1); Tacitus (8-1); Long Range Toddy (8-1); Omaha Beach (4-1); By My Standards (22-1); and Maximum Security (9-2).

As the sophomores continue to sort themselves out, handicappers playing Saturday's "cross-country pick five" linking stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack and Keeneland may want to try and get through the first three legs—the Madison (G1), Carter Handicap (G1) and Central Bank Ashland (G1)—with a minimum number of contenders, and spread in the last two, the Wood and Blue Grass.

Madison (Kee, race 8, 5:10 ET): We're going to lean pretty heavily on Shamrock Rose (9), who is back to doing what she does best after the reigning female sprint champ got worn down late in the two-turn Azeri Stakes (G2) by Midnight Bisou and Elate, who have won nine graded stakes between them.

Shamrock Rose repeats the same distance cutback that propelled her to victory in the Lexus Raven Run Stakes (G2) on this track last fall, and she drew favorably on the outside.

The lone backup is Late Night Pow Wow (6), a  remarkable West Virginia-bred filly who drops four pounds off a game score in the Barbara Fritchie (G3), and who is a half-length away from being undefeated through a dozen starts.

A - 9

B - 6

Carter Handicap (Aqu, race 9, 5:22 ET): Maybe it's a fool's errand to look past even-money favorite World of Trouble (8) after four consecutive supersonic efforts, but those races were either on turf or in the slop, and the speedster will get at least some pace pressure from Skyler's Scramjet, who laid down fast fractions before fading to fourth in the Tom Fool Handicap (G3) last out.

Then again, beaten favorites trained by Jason Servis are few and far between nowadays, and his seven rivals will need to step it up a notch in order to run down World of Trouble.

The backups are Vino Rosso (2) and Honor Up (7). Vino Rosso captured last year's Wood, and is on a good figure pattern after showing improved tactical speed to take the Stymie in his 4-year-old debut--his third win from as many local starts. The New York-bred Honor Up likes the track as well (4-2-0 from six trips), and has won four of five since transferred to Michelle Nevin last fall.

A - 8

B - 2, 7

Ashland (Kee, race 9, 5:45 ET): Four months after wrapping up the 2-year-old filly crown in the Tito's Handmade Vodka Juvenile Fillies (G1), Jaywalk was empty and faded to fourth at 1-5 in the Davona Dale (G2) behind Jeltrin, a 51-1 bomb with only a maiden-claiming win going in.

The half-full view is that the Davona Dale's third finisher, Champagne Anyone, returned to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Moreover, Jaywalk's effort brought to mind Code of Honor's equally empty effort in the Mucho Macho Man first time out this year, which was followed by a bounce-back win in the Xpressbet Fountain Of Youth (G2).

After chasing in the Davona Dale, Jaywalk should be able to control the pace in this matchup.

Restless Rider (6) has never been worse than second in six outings, and the Juvenile Fillies runner-up is back for another shot at the champ in her first start of the season. She took the Darley Alcibiades (G1) over this track and trip, and may be ready to roll after a trio of progressively faster five-furlong workouts.

The backups are Lady Kate (3) and Feedback (5), although the latter is also entered in Sunday's seven-furlong Beaumont Presented by Keeneland Select (G3) and may opt for that softer spot.

Stretched out off a debut sprint win, Lady Kate was an encouraging second in the Suncoast, and figures to take another forward step after a series of improved works, the latest a bullet over the Keeneland surface last Saturday.

A - 4, 6

B - 3, 5

Wood Memorial (Aqu, race 10, 6:00 ET): Tacitus (2) and Outshine (10) ran one-two in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and figure to be tough in this rematch against Withers (G3) winner Tax and Gotham (G3) winner Haikal (4).

Tacitus is bred to like 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct, as his sire Tapit took the 2004 Wood, and his dam Close Hatches won the 2013 Gazelle (G2) at the distance, before going on to be champion older female the following year. The Juddmonte Farms homebred commands respect for taking the Tampa Bay Derby four months after notching his maiden win at the Big A.

Outshine was a solid second to Tacitus four weeks ago, and has now produced two improved races at age 3 for Todd Pletcher, who has sent out five of the past nine Wood winners.

In the spirit of the current season, we're also including Hoffa's Union (3), who was purchased and transferred to Mark Casse after winning his debut at Laurel Park by over 15 lengths; and the Jason Servis-trained Final Jeopardy (5), who is owned by Gary and Mary West, who also campaign Game Winner and Maximum Security, the co-favorites on the morning line for Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Final Jeopardy shied in and out from the whip in a good-figure win off a two-month break March 3, suggesting there is room for additional improvement.

A - 2, 10

B - 1, 4, 5

C - 3, 4

Blue Grass (Kee, race 10, 6:23 ET): Vekoma (2) looks logical enough after finishing evenly for third in the Fountain of Youth, but we're also taking the position that Signalman (3), who finished off the board, is also entitled to improve second time back.

For what it's worth, Signalman had a big gallop-out in the FOY, and has since posted three sharp five-furlong works. Noteworthy too is his second-place finish in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland first time going long for Ken McPeek.

Of the foursome coming out of the Tampa Bay Derby, we're featuring beaten favorite and third finisher Win Win Win (8), and also including Admire (7), who ran seventh.

Last time out, Win Win Win may have still been feeling the effects of his track-record performance in the Pasco. He may rebound second time going two turns. Admire is a trainer-pattern possibility, as Dale Romans won the 2016 Blue Grass with Brody's Cause  (for this owner), who was also off the board in the Tampa Bay Derby right before that.

Somelikeithotbrown (1) has already won twice at nine furlongs, starting with his maiden win, which was scheduled for 1 1/16 miles but became 1 1/8 miles when the gate was positioned incorrectly. From the rail, and coming off a front-end win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), he may capitalize on an overall lack of early speed. It may pay to forgive his lone try on dirt, which was an off-the-turf sprint in the slop as a first-time starter.

A - 2, 3, 8

B - 1, 7