Gulfstream 2-Year-Olds: Home Run or Whiff

Everything about the Thoroughbred business is a pretty high-risk gamble—we know that. But of those who invest in the breeding and auction sales sector of the business, pinhooking 2-year-olds must be about the highest-risk gamble of all. On March 27 at The Gulfstream Sale, Fasig-Tipton's premier sale of 2-year-olds in training, fewer than one-third of the horses cataloged (59 of 188, 31.6%) were listed as sold. But those 59 that did sell grossed $29,115,000—a 24% rise from 2018—and averaged a spectacular $493,475, an increase of 28% over last year's sale. 

At the inaugural Gulfstream sale in 2015, 89 2-year-olds—50.9% of the 175 cataloged—grossed $20,095,500 and averaged $225,792. Since that time, the gross has increased by 45% and the average has more than doubled—but the number sold is down by 34% and the clearance rate from the catalog is down by 38%. Fasig-Tipton president Boyd Browning Jr. and his team have once again done a great job of catering to the top of the market, but they'd be the first to concede it's a small market.

Six years ago when Fasig-Tipton moved to Gulfstream, Ocala Breeders' Sales expanded its March 2-year-old sale from one to two days of 300 horses cataloged per day, increasing the size of the catalog to roughly 600 2-year-olds. In 2015, OBS March saw 326 horses sold for $55,432,000 at an average of $170,037. This year, 313 sold for $44,718,500—a drop of 19% from 2015 (though 6% higher than last year)—and averaged $142,871, which is 16% lower than the 2015 average.

OBS sold 56 more 2-year-olds in March than last year, a near 10% improvement in the clearance rate from the catalog, from 44.9% to 54.2%. The two sales combined had 372 juveniles sell, 17% more than in 2018. The gross for the two sales totaled $73,833,500, a 12% gain from last year, while the combined average dipped by 4% from $206,824 to $198,477.

Of course, the biggest 2-year-old in training sale is the OBS April Sale (scheduled for April 23-26), which catalogs over 1,200 horses, of which it will hope to sell around 700, gross $70 million, and average $100,000. Last year, there were 1,222 cataloged to OBS April, of which 698 sold (57.1% of the catalog), averaging $98,474. That is by far the biggest single 2-year-old sale—about 30% of the entire North American/European 2-year-old auction marketplace—so at least as much as the premier Gulfstream sale, OBS April will tell us a lot about the health of the broader market for 2-year-olds in training. But what the Gulfstream sale did tell us is that there is still plenty of competition—and strong competition at the top.

Out of 372 horses sold, there were a total of 21 sires who had three or more sell and average $200,000-plus, according to a table first published under Eric Mitchell's byline in the March 29 edition of Blood-Horse Daily (p. 22). Nine of the 21 are first-year sires, headed by Ashford's American Pharoah , whose eight 2-year-olds to sell so far have averaged $610,625. Darby Dan's Sky Kingdom , a dual grade 3 winner at 1 1/2 miles by Empire Maker , had a blockbuster $875,000 colt catapult his average to $335,667. The same firm's Tapiture  had four for an average of $285,000 at OBS March. WinStar's Carpe Diem  comes next, with an average of $261,667 for six sold.

With the $3,650,000 sale topper, Curlin  leads all sires on average with three or more sold, the average standing at $1,671,667. Tapit , who is having a scorchingly strong season, has had three average $933,333, and Medaglia d'Oro  has three averaging $783,333. American Pharoah ranks fourth among all sires, and rounding out the top five is Into Mischief , who had 11 2-year-olds average $516,818. Because he has been having crops averaging 140 horses rather than 35, like he started with, Into Mischief has proven a remarkably consistent top-class sire both on the racetrack and at the sales.

For more columns by Bill Oppenheim, APEX sire ratings, Brianne Stanley's Weekly Sales Ticker, and much more, visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter: @billoppenheim