Record Qualifying Points Likely Needed to Make Derby

With one final Road to the Kentucky Derby series weekend remaining, it's a safe bet that 2019 will set a new standard in terms of points required to qualify for one of the 20 starting spots in the May 4 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

Currently, the final spot is held by Omaha Beach at 37.5 points, which is already ahead of the previous standard for the final spot set in 2016 with the 32 points earned by Mo Tom, who finished eighth in the Run for the Roses. While horses currently with enough points for the race still could be withdrawn from consideration—which would lower the total points needed—the final two races in the series figure to put some qualifiers past the current 37.5 standard.

In the April 13 Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, which awards 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers—all eyes will be on Improbable, who at 8-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager is the fifth choice in that pool but currently has just 25 qualifying points (which ranks 27th). Even the connections of Omaha Beach, who earned all his current points by winning the second division of the March 16 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn, would feel more comfortable picking up additional points.

When Improbable finished second to Long Range Toddy in the first division of the Rebel, it left him with some work to do in terms of ensuring a spot in the Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert knows a top finish is needed—in terms of points, first or second would get him in, third may get him in, and fourth would require some defections.

"Improbable, now he has to run lights out in the Arkansas Derby. He needs to run first or second if he's going to get in the Derby," Baffert said. "So I think there's more pressure now because he didn't win (the Rebel). So it comes down to points. But then again if you can't run well (in the Arkansas Derby), do you need to be in this Kentucky Derby?"

Baffert added that he loved how Improbable has come out of the Rebel, where he raced wide throughout, and he expects him to run well in in his next effort. 

While the Arkansas Derby will award the most points Saturday, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland also could provide an avenue to the Derby to the winner with its 20-8-4-2 schedule. Among the probable Lexington starters is Sunland Park Derby (G3) runner-up Anothertwistafate, who currently has 30 qualifying points to rank 24th on the list; and multiple graded stakes-placed Sueno, who has 28 points and ranks 26th.

Last year My Boy Jack won the Lexington and then finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Standings

One reason the points standard to make this year's race has increased is because a dozen different horses have won races that awarded 37.5 points or more to the winner (the 37.5 points went to the winners of the split Rebel Stakes). Only Tacitus has won two of these races, picking up 50 for his victory in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and 100 for his score in the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2).

Another reason for the increased standard is this year's North American points race will award, at most, 19 spots instead of 20. This is because one spot is already reserved for Master Fencer through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

There's some possibility those 19 spots could be reduced to 18 should the connections of one of the top four qualifiers in the European Road to the Kentucky Derby decide to claim a spot. That series wraps up April 11 with the Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes on the Polytrack at Chelmsford City. 

Tacitus leads the points standings with 150 points. The only horse who could pass him at the top of the board would be Long Range Toddy, who enters the Arkansas Derby with 53.5 points. There's no special award for finishing atop the standings.