When a new year arrives, about 99% of the racing stables across the nation have expectations for a better year than the previous one.
Sol Kumin falls into the one percent.
The first few months of 2019 have done nothing to convince Kumin that he will never top his horses' remarkable and certainly unprecedented accomplishments in 2018.
"I don't think there's any way I can ever have another year like last year," the 43-year-old Kumin said. "I can't imagine that will ever happen again. We were very lucky and it's just not repeatable."
For as much debate as Kumin's successful business model has generated in the sport, there is indeed no arguing with his view about 2019. How could it possibly be better than 2018?
He didn't just own a piece of the Horse of the Year and one of the other two finalists for the sport's most coveted award.
He owned a share of the undefeated Justify , who became the sport's 13th Triple Crown winner. His stable also owned the majority share of Monomoy Girl, a Tapizar filly they purchased at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale for $100,000. She was voted the champion 3-year-old filly of 2018 and a Horse of the Year finalist after winning six of seven 2018 starts, including the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) and the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). Oh, and Monomoy Girl's lone loss last year came when she was disqualified from first to second in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) and the victory went to Midnight Bisou, who races for Bloom Racing Stable, Allen Racing, and Kumin's Madaket Stables.
He also owns a part of Catholic Boy, winner of the Runhappy Travers Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) and the $1.2 million Belmont Derby (G1), and Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) victor Audible, and the list does not stop there.
According to BSW Bloodstock, Kumin savored the fruits of 24 grade 1 victories in 2018, part of an overall total of 73 stakes wins, 55 of them graded wins, accomplished by 40 different horses.He also had a staggering 15 starters at the Breeders' Cup World Championships.
While those totals would appear to make Kumin a slam dunk for an Eclipse Award, they do not fit into the sport's traditional ownership model. Since entering the sport five years ago, he has operated four main stables—Head of Plains Partners, Monomoy Stables, Madaket Stables, and Sheep Pond Partners—all of which involve several partners, people such as Jim Pallotta, founder of the Raptor Group and a co-owner and executive board member of the National Basketball Association's Boston Celtics, and Jay Hanley, who was instrumental in convincing Kumin to buy into his first horse in 2014.
Using those groups, Kumin will buy some horses at sales, but for the most part, he will spend his money to build a roster of about 100 horses, most of whom have already raced, as he did with Justify after the Scat Daddy colt's first start.
As a result, the prosperous hedge fund manager may personally own about 5% of a horse such as Justify. That structure may work against Kumin in Eclipse Award balloting, where voters have showed a preference for stables that race independent of partners, yet while it can be frustrating, it has not spoiled the enjoyment he derives from the sport or diminished how successful he has been in a relatively short period of time.
"The whole key for Sol and his partners is that they enjoy the game and the more they enjoy it, the more they will continue to be involved in the game and be successful at it. He's in it for the right reasons. He's in it for sport and he's in it for passion. It starts there," said Bradley Weisbord, founder of BSW Bloodstock and Kumin's main racing adviser. "Everyone is doing what Sol does now. All of the leading groups are looking into buying proven horses. They have decided they know form better than (pedigrees). They are enjoying the process of finding and running these horses, which is good for the game. When we have more and more people paying more money for private acquisitions, it trickles down to everyone else. The breeders and pinhookers get more aggressive because they can get top dollar for horses who win one, two, or three races. That's good for the game, not bad."
In looking over the transition of Kumin's stable, it's much like the Duke University or the University of Kentucky men's basketball team in the way they lose a few NBA Lottery picks and then recruit more NBA-level talent to replace them for the following season.
Kumin may have lost stars such as Justify, Mind Your Biscuits, A Raving Beauty, and Long On Value to retirement, but he still has graded stakes winners Monomoy Girl, who is currently sidelined while recovering from a stomach ailment, Audible, Yoshida, Catholic Boy, Whitmore, Mind Control, Midnight Bisou, Coal Front, World of Trouble, Uni, My Boy Jack, and a newcomer in Ya Primo, winner of South America's richest race in his first start for Kumin, just to name a few.
"Just like the way (Kentucky coach John) Calipari and (Duke coach Mike) Krzyzewski continue to recruit the best players and field the best teams, as long as Sol keeps buying into fast horses and uses the best trainers and best jockeys, he's going to be successful," Weisbord said. "It's not a secret recipe. It's pretty obvious."
One of the carryovers from 2018 is that for a third straight year Kumin won a million-dollar graded stakes on the Dubai World Cup card. Continuing a tradition started by Mind Your Biscuits with wins in the Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Gulf News (G1) in 2017-18, the Todd Pletcher-trained Coal Front captured the $1.5 million Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City - District One (G2) for Kumin's Head of Plains Partners and Robert LaPenta.
"I did not think Coal Front was going to get there. Ten jumps from home, it was in my head, the horse ran a good race and we found out he doesn't need Lasix. It was a worthwhile trip. And then, all of a sudden, he kicks in and gets there. It was like last year when Mind Your Biscuits was off the screen and won over a speed-favoring track," said Kumin, who made the trip to Dubai with his daughter, Corey, and was joined by LaPenta, and his son, Robert Jr. "I love it over there. You look around the place and it starts getting darker that night and the place is packed. The stadium is spectacular. The treatment is amazing. The whole paddock is beautiful. The whole thing is first class. They know how to do it. It's an amazing place to win a race."
The 3-year-old front has been a different story for TOBA's 2015 New Owner of the Year. At the moment, barring a last-minute purchase, Kumin will be sitting out the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks after running 1-3-5 in last year's Run for the Roses with Justify, Audible, and My Boy Jack. He was also second in the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Exaggerator , who won the Preakness Stakes (G1) two weeks later.
Grade 1 winner Mind Control, a son of Stay Thirsty who Kumin owns along with majority owner Red Oak Stable, is being kept at sprint distances and won the seven-furlong Bay Shore Stakes (G3) April 6 at Aqueduct Racetrack. His Madaket Stables also bought a share of Outshine from Let's Go Stable and Richard Schibell, but that 3-year-old's Kentucky Derby hopes evaporated with a 10th-place finish as a 7-2 third choice in the Wood Memorial (G2).
His Kentucky Derby bid could come down to Tikhvin Flew (also owned by Bloom Racing Stable), who is a candidate for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 13 at Oaklawn Park.
For later in the year, Kumin is hoping to have a prospect for the important summer and fall stakes in Looking at Bikinis (Long Lake Stable, Thomas Coleman, and Doheny Racing Stable), a son of Lookin At Lucky who has not raced since winning his debut in September at Belmont Park.
"We'll see if an opportunity arises," Weisbord said about the possibility of acquiring a Kentucky Derby starter, "but Sol will not overpay just to run in the Kentucky Derby. He's in the game for the long run, not just one race."
On another front, Kumin added to his grade 1 win totals on the April 6 card at Aqueduct when the Kantharos 4-year-old World of Trouble (Michael Dubb and Bethlehem Stables) posted a half-length victory in the $400,000 Carter Handicap (G1) on the main track at Aqueduct for his third-straight win since finishing a close second in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1).
"He's one of the most exciting horses in the stable," said Kumin, an avid Boston sports fan who has owned horses with several past and present members of the New England Patriots and brought Patriots coach Bill Belichick to last year's Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) as his guest. "World of Trouble is so versatile, we still don't know if he's best on turf or dirt."
Looking ahead to this weekend, Kumin will be quite busy with several horses scheduled to run in graded stakes. Aside from Tikhvin Flew, he will have Midnight Bisou in the $700,000 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn Park April 14, Rymska (Tom Coleman, Team Hanley, Elayne Stables) in the $350,000 Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T) at Keeneland April 13, and Whitmore (LaPenta, Southern Springs Stables) in the $400,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park April 13.
"We're super excited about Rymska," Kumin said. "If we get lucky, it could be a huge weekend."
Plans for Coal Front as well as Audible (China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm) and Yoshida (Starlight Racing and WinStar Farm), who were fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (G1), have yet to be mapped out following their trips to Dubai. Meanwhile, in the next month or so grade 1 winners Catholic Boy (LaPenta, Siena Farm, Twin Creeks Racing Stable), Uni (Dubb, LaPenta, Bethlehem Stables) and My Boy Jack (Don't Tell My Wife Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds) are expected to make their 2019 debuts.
Ya Primo, a 4-year-old son of Mastercraftsman, captured the $500,000 Longines Gran Premio Latinoamericano (G1T) March 10 in Chile and is expected to start his U.S. career with trainer Chad Brown in the summer at Saratoga Race Course.
A change in Kumin's stable is that he will have an increased number of 2-year-olds this season. He expects to have as many as 50 after usually racing 20-25 a year. That could inflate Kumin's holdings to about 150 horses once the 2-year-olds reach the racetrack.
"It's a different look but the private market is getting tough. A lot of people are on to our model and are buying horses privately. The prices have gotten higher and it is tougher to buy those horses for the prices we want to pay. So we're given the unproven market more of a go," said Weisbord, adding that BSW Bloodstock partner Liz Crow, who picked out Monomoy Girl, played a lead role in targeting a sizeable number of horses in Kumin's upcoming 2-year-old class.
With some luck, those 2-year-olds could generate considerable excitement for Kumin and his partners, which is all anyone can really ask after a once-in-a-lifetime year in 2018.