Omaha Beach, Improbable Head 11 in Arkansas Derby

It's a race with a rematch of sorts within a rematch, a confusing state of events that serves as a fitting conclusion for a head-scratcher of a Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) prep season.

After surprises were the order of the day in a string of Kentucky Derby preps over the past few months, there was a shift last weekend. Predictability returned to the scene with two favorites taking the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2), and a Bob Baffert-trained second choice taking the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Each awarded the winner 100 qualifying points and the runner-up 40 points toward a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby, giving all of them safe passage to the May 4 Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

Now it's the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park that will close the 100-point preps April 13 with a race that could either showcase two of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby or leave two highly regarded candidates on the outside looking in.

The horses in question are Omaha Beach and Improbable, the likely favorites in the 1 1/8-mile stakes that attracted 11 3-year-olds. Fox Hill Farm's Omaha Beach currently owns the 19th and final available spot in the Kentucky Derby field (the 20th is slated to go to Master Fencer from Japan) with 37.5 points but will certainly be passed if he does not post a top-four finish and collect some of the 100-40-20-10 points up for grabs Saturday. Improbable—owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing—is 26th with 25 points.

That surely creates a pressure-packed situation, though Baffert, the two-time Triple Crown winner who trains Improbable, believes the cream will rise to the top—if it is indeed cream.

"If you have a Derby horse and he can't run first, second, or third, does he really belong in the Derby?" Baffert said. "I've never worried about points. The good ones will get in."

Baffert said he views Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Omaha Beach as the most formidable foe for Rebel runner-up Improbable, based on watching the Richard Mandella-trained son of War Front  train in California and testing him on the racetrack—though that measuring stick in the Rebel was a bit disjointed. Improbable and Omaha Beach ran in different divisions of the Rebel March 16 at Oaklawn. Omaha Beach beat another of Baffert's top Kentucky Derby candidates, 2-year-old champion Game Winner, by inches in the second division, following Improbable's loss in the first edition to 8-1 shot Long Range Toddy, who will return in the Arkansas Derby with a Kentucky Derby spot locked up (11th, 53.5 points).

"I have a lot of respect for Omaha Beach," Baffert said. "I see him train and watch him breeze, and he comes back really well. He's the horse to beat. He's the real deal, and I think our horse is the real deal. The California horses, they seem like they're pretty good."

The Rebel was Improbable's first start since Dec. 8, when he captured the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1). It also was the son of City Zip's first loss in four career starts, and the connections behind the Kentucky-bred believe their colt will benefit from his comeback effort in the Rebel.

"Bob's pretty straightforward. He'll tell you if the horse is not doing well, and he likes how the horse is training. We're taking a group over there and hope we can be in the winner's circle," said Starlight Racing managing partner and CEO Jack Wolf about the 8-5 morning-line favorite who drew the rail. "They're adding blinkers and a new rider, so they're trying things, and we'll see how it works out."

Baffert said he's adding a small set of blinkers after Improbable opened a length lead at the eighth pole but could not hold off a closing surge by Long Range Toddy, who prevailed by a neck.

"We're putting a small blinker on him because I think he needs a little focus," Baffert said. "In the stretch (of the Rebel), he lost a little focus, and (Long Range Toddy) came to him. Right now, I'm just trying to get to the next level with him."

In addition, after talking with WinStar Farm president and CEO Elliott Walden, Baffert brought in the more experienced Jose Ortiz to replace Drayden Van Dyke aboard Improbable for the Arkansas Derby. Though Ortiz is 25 and Van Dyke 24, Ortiz was the Eclipse Award-winning jockey in 2017 and is a staple in grade 1 races throughout the East.

"After the race at Oaklawn, we wanted to go with a more seasoned rider. If he had won the race, he'd be fine, but I feel there's a lot of pressure on Elliott, the group, and everyone. We want to get to the Derby and give the horse and the clients the best possible chance to win," Baffert said. "Sometimes it's like a manager taking a pitcher out early. I remember telling (former New York Yankees manager) Joe Torre about how I hate taking the rider off, and he told me he had to take the ball away from Hall of Fame pitchers in the World Series. When you're trying to win, you can't worry about that stuff."

Improbable was bred by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. and sold for $110,000 to Taylor Made Sales Agency at the 2016 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. He was then bought by WinStar's Maverick Racing and China Horse Club for $200,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Omaha Beach, the 2-1 second choice with Mike Smith aboard, has also been training well since he handed Game Winner his first defeat in Omaha Beach's third start—and second win—on dirt. He started his career with two seconds in three turf races and then broke his maiden on the main track with a nine-length win Feb. 2 at Santa Anita Park.

"He finally said to me after his last grass race, 'Boss, you ought to run on the grass, not me,'" Mandella said. "Once he got serious about running, his works have always been like a first-class horse. So it's not a surprise to us that he's that good. Probably the concern I have is that someday somebody will say how did I get him beat so many times."

Bred by Charming Syndicate in Kentucky, Omaha Beach was purchased privately after he had an RNA of $625,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Out of the Seeking the Gold mare Charming, he is a half brother to Take Charge Brandi, the champion 2-year-old filly of 2014.

Jon Court, who at 58 is hopeful of becoming the oldest rider to win the Kentucky Derby, will be back aboard Long Range Toddy and believes the extra sixteenth of a mile in the Arkansas Derby will help the chances of Willis Horton Racing's homebred son of Take Charge Indy. A hindrance for the Steve Asmussen-trained 3-year-old figures to be landing the outside post.

"Well, I believe his blood lines indicate that he can go further," said Court, whose horse is the 5-1 third choice. "The first time I swung a leg over him, after I had been told he was kind and intelligent, that impressed me. Then, after working him, I realized he had the talent that it would take to be running at the caliber level he's racing at."

Long Range Toddy has four wins in seven starts, along with a third in the Southwest Stakes (G3).

The field also includes Country House (24th, 30 points), Gray Attempt (30th, 10), and Galilean (34th, 7.5). Each is among the top 35 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

Entries: Arkansas Derby (G1)

Oaklawn Park, Saturday, April 13, 2019, Race 11

• Grade I
• 1 1/8m
• Dirt
• $1,000,000
• 3 yo
• 6:43 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Improbable (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	122	Bob Baffert	8/5
2	2Six Shooter (KY)	David Cohen	122	Paul E. Holthus	30/1
3	3Omaha Beach (KY)	Mike E. Smith	122	Richard E. Mandella	2/1
4	4Tikhvin Flew (KY)	Tyler Baze	118	Steven M. Asmussen	30/1
5	5Laughing Fox (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	118	Steven M. Asmussen	20/1
6	6Gray Attempt (KY)	Stewart Elliott	122	William H. Fires	8/1
7	7Galilean (CA)	Flavien Prat	122	Jerry Hollendorfer	10/1
8	8Country House (KY)	Joel Rosario	118	William I. Mott	12/1
9	9One Flew South (KY)	Calvin H. Borel	118	Doug F. O'Neill	50/1
10	10Jersey Agenda (KY)	Ramon A. Vazquez	118	Steven M. Asmussen	30/1
11	11Long Range Toddy (KY)	Jon Kenton Court	122	Steven M. Asmussen	5/1