Three Things to Watch: The End of the Road

It all started Sept. 15 at Churchill Downs when Cairo Cat prevailed by a half-length in the $150,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3). Cairo Cat has not raced since then, but in the course of the past seven months, 32 other stakes in the Road to the Kentucky Derby have put hammer and nail to the framework for the May 4 opening leg of the Triple Crown.

And now, April 13, the final two races in the series—the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park—will divvy up the final batch of qualifying points and determine who will be included among the field of 20 in the Run for the Roses. Given what's at stake, the best bet of the weekend is that emotions will be on overdrive during both races, and in the end there will be considerable amounts of both joy and heartbreak as the final steps are taken on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

1. Hey Nineteen (first verse): While there will be 20 starters in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), only 19 spots are up for grabs as one berth already belongs to Japan's Master Fencer. There's the potential for a second international runner—this one from the European Road to the Derby—but at this time it appears unlikely that anyone will cross the Atlantic to follow that path to Louisville. The cutoff at No. 19 is currently 37.5 points, a total belonging to Omaha Beach, second choice in the Arkansas Derby. Because the Lexington offers only 20-8-4-2 points to the top four finishers, there are only two horses with a realistic chance of crashing the Derby party: Anothertwistafate (30 points) or Sueno (28). Knicks Go, with 18 points, would need a win, some prayers answered in the Arkansas Derby, and a final decision to contest the Derby.

2. Hey Nineteen (second verse): Speaking of which … the top two finishers in the Arkansas Derby can pack their bags for Louisville because it's a 100-40-20-10 race. Yet what adds to the intrigue is 8-5 favorite Improbable and Omaha Beach have yet to lock up spots. In theory, even a modest fourth-place finish by Omaha Beach should be good enough for him—provided an off-the-board finish doesn't rattle his connections' confidence in him. Improbable has 25 points and cannot afford to finish worse than third. Country House is also within shouting distance of the cutoff with 30 points.

3. Holding 'Court' in Kentucky: Of the 21 3-year-olds in the two stakes, only Arkansas Derby starter Long Range Toddy is ensured of a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Winner of the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), he has 53.5 points and is 11th on the leaderboard, giving him enough of a cushion to weather Saturday's "Bump Day" and create the possibility of a Kentucky Derby for the "ages." Riding the son of Take Charge Indy will be Jon Court, who at the age of 58 would love nothing better than to be the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby, supplanting 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker.

"As long as I'm healthy and able to compete at this level … and have the opportunity to ride these big races, I feel the dream is always still alive," Court said. "Even though I know as well as anyone that my age comes into play for a lot of people, it doesn't come into play as much for me. … I do hear that subject matter about my age quite regularly."