Handicapping Final Two Road to the Kentucky Derby Races

The final stops on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are in Hot Springs, Ark. and Lexington April 13, with the Arkansas Derby (G1) bestowing 100 qualifying points to the winner and Stonestreet Lexington (G3) providing 20 potentially pivotal points to its winner.

The $1 million Arkansas Derby tops a solid card at Oaklawn Park that also features Whitmore trying to catch the speedy Mitole in a bid to win the $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) for the third straight year, and a wide-open renewal of the $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Unfortunately, the forecast says thunderstorms are a sure thing, with two to three inches of rain expected.

The $200,000 Lexington is the third leg of an all-stakes pick four at Keeneland that begins with the Ben Ali (G3) and the Giant's Causeway, and climaxes with the Coolmore Jenny Wiley (G1T). There were some early-morning showers Friday, but conditions should be fast and firm.

Oaklawn Handicap (OP, race 9, 5:22 CT): Tenfold (1) and Quip (7) meet for the first time since last year's Arkansas Derby, when the former faded to fifth in his stakes debut and the latter ran second after forcing the pace.

Both had useful efforts when returned as 4-year-olds recently. Tenfold gets blinkers on after lugging in through the late stages of a high-end optional claimer behind the 5-for-6 Exclamation Point, while Quip dueled through a sharp pace in the Hal's Hope (G3) and wound up third to Prince Lucky, who appears bound for the Met Mile (G1) after coming back to win the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) by almost five lengths.

Giant Expectations (6) was four wide on the turns and beaten less than a length by Rated R Superstar (9) in the recent Essex Handicap, and gets a four-pound shift relative to that winner in the weights.

A - 1, 7

B - 6

Arkansas Derby (OP, race 11, 6:43 CT): It's tough to see past Improbable (1) and Omaha Beach (3), who emerge from divisions of the Rebel (G2) that featured virtually identical fractions and final times.

Improbable suffered his first loss when edged at the wire by Long Range Toddy (11) in the Rebel, but raced wide every step of the way while Long Range Toddy benefited from a smooth inside-out trip. That also was Improbable's first race of the season, and he moves from the outside post to the rail, along with a switch to Jose Ortiz and the addition of blinkers.

Omaha Beach held off Game Winner in the second division (with more than eight lengths back to third), and has since posted two bullet workouts. He relished the slop two starts back, and the only other entrant with experience on a sealed sloppy surface is Jersey Agenda (10).

Jersey Agenda was shuffled back badly on the far turn behind Omaha Beach last out. He's our bust-out backup at 30-1 on the morning line.

A - 1, 3

B - 10

Ben Ali (Kee, race 7, 4:24 ET): This contentious opening leg of the pick four is a good place to spread, as little separates Flameaway (4), Hence (5), Solomini (6) and Bonus Points (8) when they bring their A-game.

Third Day (3) gets blinkers after losing position on the far turn of his stakes debut in the Mineshaft Handicap (G3), and the lightly raced 5-year-old still has upside making just his seventh start overall.

Nun the Less (10), who took an off-the-turf entry-level allowance in the mud at Keeneland way back in 2014, has won four of his past six, but his fastest races have come either in the mud or on synthetic surfaces, and the post draw did not treat him well.

A - 4, 5, 8

B - 3, 6, 8

C - 10

Giant's Causeway (Kee, race 8, 4:57 ET): Surrender Now (4) found her calling last summer winning both of her turf sprints. She has won twice previously off workouts, and her stalking tactics should find her in the garden spot off a couple of longshot need-to-lead types.

Morticia (8) projects to be well-placed too, and is on the same schedule as last year when third in this dash.

At prices, we're also using Mrs. Ramona G. (3), who has won three of four turf sprints and goes well fresh; and Excessivespending (10), who was up for a win over this course last fall and gets a switch back to Julien Leparoux.

A - 4, 8

B - 3, 10

Stonestreet Lexington (Kee, race 9, 5:34 ET): With 30 points in his account, this is essentially a win-and-you're-in race for Anothertwistafate (4), who was nipped in the Sunland Derby (G3) by Cutting Humor, who set a track record of 1:46.94 seconds for nine furlongs. That effort for Anothertwisafate came on the heels of three front-running wins, and he showed a new dimension by vying for the early lead between horses, dropping back off the pace slightly, and rallying through the stretch to narrowly miss.

Anothertwistafate has since turned in a bullet half-mile work and figures to be forwardly placed in a matchup that has several early-speed types, notably Knicks Go (7), a grade 1 winner over the surface last fall who has yet to find his best form this year.

Shang (1) and Sueno (3) are on healthy development patterns after pairing up peak figures. Harvey Wallbanger (5) could benefit from a hotly contested pace, and the Lambholm South Holy Bull (G2) winner is a candidate to rebound after chasing wide in a slow-paced Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1).

A - 4

B - 1, 3, 5

Coolmore Jenny Wiley (Kee, race 10, 6:12 ET): This latest episode of the Chad Brown Turf Show finds the three-time Eclipse-winning trainer sending out the first three morning-line choices in Rushing Fall (2), Rymska (4) and Onthemoonagain (8).

Rushing Fall makes her initial start against older rivals after wrapping up her sophomore season with a score here in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup Presented by Lane's End (G1T). The dual grade 1 winner is classy and versatile and will likely control the pace as she looks for her seventh win from eight outings.

Rymska is favorably weighted under the conditions as she drops two pounds off a win in the Hillsborough (G2T).

The 1 1/16-mile trip seems a little short for Onthemoonagain, but she classes up off a placing in the Flower Bowl (G1T) last fall, and had a useful effort off a five-month layoff when nosed for second in the Hillsborough.

A - 2

B - 4, 8