Sham Stakes A Wide Open Affair

Horses break from the gate at Santa Anita. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $100,000 Sham Stakes, which awards points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby system, also starts the trek towards the Santa Anita Derby in April. Leading the field of eight in terms of accomplishments is Calculator, who finished second in both the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer and in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in the fall. Other contenders include recent winners Rockinatten and Hero Ten All as well as Rock Shandy and St. Joe Bay, recently third and fourth, respectively, in the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes.
Rockinatten ships in from Florida and moves to the barn of trainer Doug O'Neill, who managed Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another so well three years ago. Rockinatten improved his Equibase Speed Figure from 83 in his August debut to 86 then to 93 when winning by nearly nine lengths when last seen at the end of October, possibly aided by the addition of blinkers for that race. Considering Calculator ran fast enough to earn 97 and 101 figures when finishing second in a pair of grade 1 stakes races around the same time, and as a more mature horse nearly three months after his last race, Rockinatten could improve enough to win the Sham Stakes and put his name in the mix as a horse to watch on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Calculator, although still a maiden, finished second to top local two-year-old American Pharoah last summer and fall, first in the Del Mar Futurity then in the FrontRunner Stakes. Calculator was expected to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November but had to be withdrawn the day of the race due to a sore hoof. The horse he beat for second in the FrontRunner was Texas Red, who posted the upset to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Rested since the end of September, Calculator has already proven he fits with the best in the division. With 97 and 101 figures in his last two starts, by far the best in the field, Calculator could be the one to beat in this year's Sham Stakes.
Hero Ten All broke slowly in his debut around one turn but finished well to be second of 11 then improved markedly when running a mile around two-turns, improving his figure by nine points to 91. With more improving to do in his third career start and second route, if Hero Ten All can improve another nine points in terms of his speed figure then he could certainly run as fast at Calculator or some of the other improving horses and post the upset.
Pioneerof the West moves back to the main track following a ninth place finish on grass in the Eddie Logan Stakes last month. Prior to that, he won easily when leading from start to finish and before that he rallied for second, earning 88 and 90 figures, respectively. With an inside post to save ground early, jockey Corey Nakatani has the option of sitting off the pace if another horse wants the lead in the early stages, or taking the lead if it appears none of the other horses wants it. That versatility may give Pioneerof the West a shot at being a factor in the Sham at high odds.
The rest of the Sham field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Papacoolpapacool (88), Rock Shandy (91), St. Joe Bay (88) and Unblunted (87).
My Selections:
Rockinatten
Calculator
Hero Ten All
Pioneerof the West
In 2014, Ellis Starr’s top choice for Equibase’s Weekly Feature Race won 29 percent of the time. If you had wagered $2 to win on his top choice each week, you would have pocketed $155 – a 49 percent profit! You can get Ellis' detailed selections and analysis for the entire day of racing at Santa Anita HERE
$100,000 Sham Stakes
Saturday, Santa Anita, Race 6, 6:00 p.m. ET
1 mile, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

1

St. Joe Bay (FL)

Martin Pedroza

Peter Miller

2

Pioneerof the West (FL)

Corey Nakatani

Mark Casse

3

Rockinatten (FL)

Rafael Bejarano

Doug O'Neill

4

Unblunted (KY)

Joe Talamo

Michael McCarthy

5

Rock Shandy (KY)

Victor Espinoza

Peter Miller

6

Papacoolpapacool (KY)

Fernando Hernandez Perez           

Jeff Mullins

7

Calculator (FL)

Elvis Trujillo

Peter Miller

8

Hero Ten All (KY)

Tyler Baze

Jeff Mullins

Field assigned 118 lbs.