Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Jan. 10-12

When you’re going well, it’s easy to get lazy.
When the opinions are good, sometimes you take them for granted.
Even if you have a surface feel for a game, or a race, it’s still important to dig deeper. Collecting information can strengthen your opinion, weaken it, or in extreme cases, even change it.
Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall and winter, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch… and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
I’ll be the first to admit it. My opinions weren’t good last week and the performance was even worse.
The unlikely safety tipped the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers game over the total, and even though they didn’t cover, I would play the Dallas Cowboys minus the points against the Detroit Lions all over again.
Arizona Cardinals QB Ryan Lindley was just horrible against the Carolina Panthers, and without A.J. Green, the Cincinnati Bengals didn’t have enough weapons to keep up with the Indianapolis Colts. I should have seen both of those scenarios coming.
When you have a bad opinion, don’t make excuses for it. Learn, file the information and move on. It can help you win later.
Pro Football Superfecta
Last week: 0-4 (.000)
Season Total: 24-30-2 (.444)
Saturday, Jan. 10
New England Patriots (-7) vs. Baltimore Ravens and UNDER 47.5 (4:35 p.m. ET)
When you have a lockdown corner like the Patriots do in Darrelle Revis and the opposition’s best receiver is Torrey Smith, you can focus on stopping the run. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has amazing playoff stats, but the reality is he’s going to have a tough time moving the ball in New England. The Patriots are well rested and you can rest assured that they will attack the Ravens defense through the air.
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers and UNDER 39.5 (8:15 p.m. ET)
The Panthers are playing their best football of the year, but their five straight wins came against four non-playoff teams and an Arizona squad that was led by a QB who shouldn’t even be in the league. On defense, the defending Super Bowl champs are every bit as good as they were last year. Richard Sherman will lock down rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin and the Seahawks will be able to focus on stopping the run.
Sunday, Jan. 11
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys and UNDER 52.5 (1:05 p.m. ET)
Relax Packers fans. Aaron Rodgers’ calf is a slight concern, but even if his mobility is limited, the offense will adjust. The Cowboys were very fortunate to win last week against the Lions. They didn’t play very well, and that’s a concern a week later heading into Lambeau Field to play a well-rested Packers team that can pound the rock and fling it all over the field. 
RODGERS IS ALWAYS TOUGH AT LAMBEAU

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Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Denver Broncos and OVER 54 (4:40 p.m. ET)
An improved running game has brought some balance to the Indianapolis offense and the defense played really well against Cincinnati. The defense isn’t dominating but the arrow is pointing up. Andrew Luck’s vertical weapons are dangerous and healthy.  Denver will score points, but so will Indy, and I think they have enough to keep it close or potentially post the upset.
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Bowl Season Record: (17-12)
On to the National Championship ...
#2 Oregon (-6) vs. #4 Ohio State and UNDER 75.5 (Monday, Jan. 12, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Well, it all comes down to one game to decide the king of college football. It’s always been that way, the two “best” teams battling for the right to call themselves National Champions. What’s clearly different about this game is that it wouldn’t have happened last year, or the year before that and so on. It would have never happened.
That’s why the newly installed College Football Playoff system is such a resounding success. Not because both semi-final games were excellent to an extent, and not because these games smashed all sorts of cable TV ratings records.
We are seeing something that wasn’t possible before. Why? The BCS system would have had an Alabama vs. Florida State title game in all likelihood. On paper, that would have drawn huge numbers, created juicy story lines, pitted heroes against villains … and more.
Just one problem: the best teams are decided on the gridiron. Not written on paper, not calculated by a computer and not voted on by coaches and media.
Thank you, College Football Playoff system.
This game will have everything — crushing hits, incomprehensible tempo, high-flying action up and down the field. Both the Buckeyes and the Ducks can really, really score. They can also hit you in the mouth when given the opportunity.
Ohio State may have college football’s smartest coach on the sideline (Urban Meyer). Oregon counters with college football’s brightest on-field captain, leading an offensive system that has developed into a juggernaut on it’s own.
I’ll keep my explanation simple as to why Oregon wins and covers. It’s not just Marcus Mariota. It’s Marcus Mariota in that offense. The 2014 Heisman winner will not be denied. Oregon will get its first-ever win over Ohio State and its first-ever college football National Championship. Not a bad Monday evening to be a Duck.
MARIOTA IS LETHAL IN THE DUCKS OFFENSE

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In regards to the total, I’ll keep this explanation short as well. Whenever I look at the over/under, especially when two powerhouse offenses collide, I harken back to 2011. Why 2011? Because that’s when Cam Newton and Auburn beat Oregon in a national title game that had an O/U at 72. That number was huge four years ago … it’s just a big number now.
Auburn beat Oregon 22-19, and it probably should have been even lower scoring. (if you’re still keeping score, that’s wayyyyyy UNDER).
Yes, Oregon hasn’t scored under 42 points since losing at home to Arizona in its only loss of the season. Yes, Ohio State put up 42 on Alabama … freakin’ Alabama! Oregon beat Florida State by nearly 40! Not scored, beat! Won by 40 points over Florida State!
Everyone can make the above arguments, but exactly none of the aforementioned victories and scores by these two teams occurred in the National Championship. That’s why this game is different, and why this game will be special. Enjoy. 
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
We recovered some of our NFL losses by playing the ponies.
Both of the horses we picked who entered the starting gate ran second, Ready for Rye as the Spectacular Bid Stakes favorite and Ami’s Flatter as a 13-to-1 longshot in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.
Mom’z Laugh, my hunch play in the Ginger Brew Stakes, was scratched. My mom can’t laugh right now, so I guess the non-participation made sense.
Last week: 2-0-2-0 ($2 WPS * $12 wagered * $20.80 returned)
Season Total: 52-18-8-3 ($2 WPS * $312 wagered * $390.10 returned = $7.50 ROI)
Saturday, Jan. 10
Gulfstream Park - Hallandale, Fla.
Race 7 – Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3), 3:34 pm. ET
#3 Valid (morning-line odds, 2-1)
His name says it all. This legit 5-year-old gelding is getting better with age. He just missed to a very talented foe in the season debut and should be even better this time around. He’s speedy, but rateable, and the presence of the come-backing Lea, last year’s winner who also upset the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, should make our horse playable. 
Race 8 – Marshua’s River Stakes (G3), 4:03 p.m. ET
#4 Strike Charmer (morning-line odds, 4-1)
At the age of five, this lightly raced mare appears to be primed for her best season. Since adding blinkers four starts ago, she posted a win and two seconds. Two back, she was a Kentucky Downs runner-up behind the multiple stakes-winning I’m Already Sexy and last time out she posted an upset when facing 13 rivals in the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap at Churchill. She’s maintained fitness in training, but I hope jockey Chris Landeros recognizes the lack of pace on paper and keeps her close to the early proceedings.
Race 10 – Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2), 5:01 p.m. ET
#3 Mshawish (morning-line odds 4-1)
This 4-year-old was legitimate on the international scene and he now appears to be well adjusted to the North American style. He won the El Prado Stakes smartly four weeks ago and the workouts in between runs have been sharp. There’s no reason to think he won’t run another huge race.
MSHAWISH WINNING EL PRADO

Photo by Natalie Fawkes/Gulfstream Park