Who Will Reign in the (Expected) Rain?

With the 3-year-old preps in the books and Easter and Passover being celebrated this weekend, the stakes schedule for Saturday, April 20 is somewhat scattered.

There are four graded stakes across North America, topped by the $1 million Charles Town Classic (G2) in West Virginia, where there was a high probability of rain Good Friday but only a slight chance of showers on, ahem, 4/20.

Wet weather will likely be much more of a factor in Lexington, where it was almost 80 degrees Thursday but not expected to get out of the mid-40s—along with a chilly rain—for Saturday's Dixiana Elkhorn (G2T) scheduled for turf.

Out at Santa Anita Park just five older sprinters signed on for the Kona Gold Stakes (G2), headed by Dr. Dorr and Kanthaka, the second and third finishers in the recent San Carlos (G2).

Saturday is also opening day at Woodbine, where the featured Whimsical Presented by Irish Thoroughbred Marketing (G3) attracted six female sprinters, four making their seasonal debuts.

Laurel Park cards seven stakes, including the Federico Tesio, which could produce a local threat for the Preakness (G1) four weeks down the road.

Charles Town Classic (CT, race 11, 5:37 ET): The durable geldings Imperative (5), Something Awesome (7) and War Story (9) certainly have made their presence felt in the past several editions of this three-turn route. Imperative beat heavily favored Game On Dude to win it in 2014, and after finishing second in 2015 and fourth in 2016, he took a close decision over War Story in 2017—not bad for a horse who was claimed from his final start of 2013! Something Awesome, meanwhile, edged the tough-luck War Story through a stretch duel in last year's renewal.

Questions of form hover over all three of them, however. Something Awesome has been beaten more than 57 lengths in three subsequent tries in graded stakes; Imperative has been in the money just once from eight starts since the 2017 Classic; and War Story has lost all five outings since last year's Classic, including two at odds-on and a 23-length drubbing in the Marathon (G2) when last seen on Breeders' Cup Friday last fall.

The logical alternatives are Rally Cry (4) and Discreet Lover (6), who upset the 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cuo (G1) when the pace completely melted down. The latter was too close early when sixth in last year's Charles Town Classic, but his typical come-from-the-clouds style doesn't typically play well on this tight-turning layout. 

The Todd Pletcher-trained Rally Cry, on the other hand, is a stalker who should be poised to pounce off likely pacesetter Nanoosh (2) in his first start since contesting the pace from post 14 in the 2018 Woodward Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1). Note that Pletcher has been firing lately with stakes horses first time back: Prince Lucky took the Hal's Hope (G3) off a 259-day layoff and came back to repeat in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2); Vino Rosso won the Stymie after being away 196 days; and Always Shopping took the Gazelle (G2) off a two-month break to earn a spot in the upcoming Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

A - 4

B - 2, 7

Dixiana Elkhorn (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): Mike Maker sends out the first three choices on the morning line in Soglio (4), Bigger Picture (7) and Zulu Alpha (10), all of whom have run well over the turf at Keeneland. The latter is particularly adept over rain-softened ground, having taken the Sycamore (G3T) over this course and trip on good-to-yielding footing last fall, as well as the William L. McKnight (G3T) over a bog on the Pegasus World Cup undercard.

Canessar (5) was fifth behind Zulu Alpha and Soglio in the McKnight after some early trouble, and that also was his first outing since nipping Soglio for second in the Stars and Striples (G3T) early last summer. Canessar had some late trouble in the Pan American (G2T) three weeks ago. The French import was beaten less than three lengths in the 2018 Elkhorn on firm turf, and has winning experience on heavy ground overseas that could move him up.

A - 5, 10

B - 4, 7

Kona Gold (SA, race 5, 3:12 PT): With no races to be run on the downhill course in the foreseeable future, Cistron (2) winds up on the main track in his first appearance since a runner-up finish in the San Simeon (G3T).

While the aforementioned Dr. Dorr (1) and Kanthaka (5) are more accomplished on dirt, Cistron did win the 2017 Northern Spur at Oaklawn Park. He is quick enough to get a clear early lead in this short field, and a good showing would give him some options going forward. He's worth a token win wager at 3-1 or better, but that's the extent of our involvement here.

Whimsical (WO, race 8, 4:51): With the benefit of recent racing, Sly Beauty (4) and Shakopee Town (5) have a potential conditioning edge over their four rivals in the six-furlong meet opener.

Sly Beauty repeats a Gulfstream-turf-to-Woodbine-synthetic switch that produced a win in the Star Shoot Stakes last spring, and will take some beating as the 9-5 choice on the line.

Shakopee Town has won four of 10 starts on dirt and may vie for favoritism as she tries the synthetic stuff for the first time. She outworked 99 other half-mile workers with a 46 3/5-second breeze on the track last week, and the Louisiana-bred daughter of Jersey Town  makes her initial start for trainer Kevin Attard.

A - 4

B - 5