Litfin: A Few Stakes Picks Ahead of Derby Saturday

Pre-Derby Saturday offers a rather light stakes schedule, as the richest race in North America is the $250,000 San Francisco Mile (G3T) at Golden Gate Fields, and the only other graded event is the $200,000 Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita Park.

It's also opening night at Churchill Downs, where first post is 6 pm EDT and a 10-race card features the unbeaten Bulletin at odds-on against seven foes in the $125,000 William Walker.

Sprinters also are spotlighted in the six-furlong Bachelor at Oaklawn Park and the seven-furlong Elusive Quality scheduled for turf opening Saturday at Belmont Park.

"Yeah, but who d'ya like in the Derby?"

Funny you should ask! Obviously, nothing's finalized pending Tuesday's draw for post positions, final workouts and a clearer picture of the weather outlook. That said, I'm pretty much down to the same handful of contenders as most others, with Omaha Beach, Roadster, and Game Winner heading the list and Code of Honor kicking around in my head as a longshot.

First, though, we shall attempt to make some hay Saturday.

San Francisco Mile (GG, race 10, 5:10 PT): Many Roses (6) is back for a third try in this event after setting the pace to the stretch and winding up third each of the past two years. He hasn't run since last June, however, and is drawn outside a couple of opponents who also have speed, notably Blitzkrieg (2), who stretches out from pace-pressing efforts down the hillside course at Santa Anita Park.

The pace picture works in favor of the logical favorites: Bowies Hero (1), a five-time winner at the distance including the 2018 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1T); and River Boyne (10), a three-time graded stakes winner who was a close fourth in the latest Kilroe four weeks ago.

But with Bowies Hero unraced since August and River Boyne poorly drawn, it may be worth paying some attention to a sleeper like Grecian Fire (7) at 15-1 on the morning line. The 5-year-old gelding was sharp enough to get up at six furlongs when returned from a layoff recently, and his previous turf route was a placing in the California Dreamin' Stakes behind Fly to Mars, who subsequently finished second in a pair of grade 2 events.

A - 1, 10

B - 6, 7

Santa Margarita (SA, race 8, 4:50 PT): A rule of thumb says don't back chalk that hasn't won in over a year and a half, but rules were made to be broken when it comes to situations like Paradise Woods (8), a dual grade 1 winner who lays over her opponents in the Santa Margatita.

Granted, the 5-year-old daughter of Union Rags  has lost seven straight since taking the 2017 Zenyatta (G1), but that was also the last time she was able to control the early pace, and the sense is that new pilot Mike Smith will put her on the lead and let her roll.

This will be the third start back from a layoff for Paradise Woods, following an improved third in the Beholder Mile (G1) that featured a strong gallop-out, and she has posted a trio of improved workouts since that race. I would take the 9-5 morning-line price if it's offered.

The primary threats appear to be La Force (3), who is grade 1-placed but just 2-7-4 from 23 starts overall; andLemoona (6), who has bounced twice previously after the kind of peak effort she put forth last out.

A - 8

B - 3, 6

Bachelor (OP, race 9, 5:28 CT): "The race isn't always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet," advised Damon Runyon back in the day, so the legendary sports scribe would likely have landed on either Landeskog (1) or Gray Attempt (6), who have been fastest among these thus far.

The problem for both has to do with another old saying—"Pace makes the race"—since Landeskog is under the gun from the rail after a front-running win over maidens first time out, and Gray Attempt has notched all four of his victories on the lead. Breaking between them are Bano Solo (2), who dueled for the lead to midstretch in the Sanford (G3); and Classy John (3), who cuts back after dueling for six furlongs in a division of the Rebel (G2) against the big boys. Moreover, on the outside is Oil Money (8), a multiple front-end winner in the Southwest including the Zia Park Juvenile Stakes in 1:09 flat.

It's tempting to play for a meltdown and key the horses that will try to rally late: Nitrous (4), Ninth Street (5), and Frosted Ice (7). The latter may be prepping for a return to New York-bred competition first out since a romping win in the Bertram F. Bongard last fall, but the son of Bellamy Road has trained forwardly at Oaklawn since mid-winter for Ron Moquett, who is solid with layoff runners.

A - 4, 5, 7

B - 1, 6

Elusive Quality (Bel, race 9, 5:51 ET): Thunderstorms (90% chance) were close to a sure thing on Long Island Friday, so the turf will probably be something other than firm.

That's a potential plus for Emmaus (3), a European import making his seasonal and stateside debut, and who has won first time out of the box each of the past three years, capped by a minor stakes on heavy ground.

All those wins were at Saturday's seven furlongs over the straight course at Leicester, so perhaps the gradual bend on the Widener (outer) course will be a good fit. A concern is his penchant for breaking tardily overseas.

The pace figures to be contested between the two inside runners, Abiding Star (1) and Fixed Point (2), which ought to set the table for the likes of Krampus (4), Therapist (5), and Big Handsome (6).

Coming off a win in the Canadian Turf (G3T), Krampus had little chance in a slow-paced Appleton (G3T) last time, but still put in a final quarter-mile well under 23 seconds. Therapist has been gelded since concluding his sophomore season with a wide third in the Tropical Park Derby, and the New York-bred meets older horses for the first time.

Krampus and Therapist are a combined 5 for 5 locally, while Big Handsome's two wins over the Widener layout include the 2017 Paradise Creek at this distance on "good" footing. 

In the event of a switch to dirt, Abiding Star would prove difficult to catch and beat as a potential single for multi-race wagers. Otherwise...

A - 4, 5

B - 3, 6