The Case For (and Against) the Horse of the Year Finalists
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A compelling case can be made for each of the 2014 Horse of the Year finalists, and there has been no shortage of spirited debate in print and social media about the merits of Bayern, California Chrome and Main Sequence.
Let’s take a look at the case for and against each of the three finalists (in alphabetical order) as we approach the Eclipse Awards on Jan. 17 at the Sport of Kings Theater at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla.
CASE FOR BAYERN: Bayern won most important unrestricted (open to both sexes and all ages) race — the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic — in U.S. to cap his 2014 season. He made his career debut in a maiden special weight race in January 2014 and ended the season with a win against the best dirt horses in the world. Four of nine 3-year-olds who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic also were named Horse of the Year.
Bayern started 10 times in 11 months with six wins, including four in graded stakes. When Bayern was on his game, he was dazzling. He won the Grade 2 Woody Stephens by 7 ½ lengths, the Haskell Invitational Stakes by 7 ¼ lengths and the Pennsylvania Derby by 5 ¾ lengths. He had two Grade 1 wins among three wins in races with purses of $1-million or more. Bayern defeated California Chrome in two of three head-to-head matchups, including by 7 ¼ lengths in Pennsylvania Derby.
Bayern’s four graded stakes wins came at distances ranging from seven furlongs to 1 ¼ miles. He led all North American horses by purse earnings in 2014 with $4,389,680.
BAYERN (INSIDE) WINNING THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
CASE AGAINST BAYERN: Bayern had no impact in the most important 3-year-old races: the Triple Crown. As dazzling as he could be when on top of his game, when he was bad, Bayern was really bad. He finished last of 10, beaten by 20 lengths in the Travers Stakes, and ninth of 10, beaten by 21 lengths, by California Chrome, in the Preakness. One clunker is forgivable, but two? His most important win was shrouded in controversy. Bayern sideswiped previously unbeaten Shared Belief at the start in Breeders’ Cup Classic, which led to a chain reaction that impeded several other horses, including the horse expected to challenge Bayern for the lead, Moreno.
HOW BAYERN WINS: Eclipse Awards voters place a high value Bayern’s win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and his record of two wins in three head-to-head starts against California Chrome.
CASE FOR CALIFORNIA CHROME: California Chrome won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes during a 2014 five-race winning streak in which he won those races by a combined margin of 21 1/4 lengths. He raced nine times during a tough campaign from January through the end of November and won four Grade 1s, including at least one in three states — California, Kentucky and Maryland.
A Grade 1 winner on dirt and turf in 2014, California Chrome came up 1 3/4 lengths short of becoming first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and was, without a doubt, the biggest story in the sport of horse racing in 2014. He turned in, arguably, the best season by a 3-year-old male since Curlin during his 2007 Horse of the Year campaign. California Chrome’s six stakes wins and five graded stakes win are more than any of the finalists.
CALIFORNIA CHROME WINNING THE PREAKNESS
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
CASE AGAINST CALIFORNIA CHROME: California Chrome lost to Bayern in two out of three meetings. While he only lost the Breeders' Cup Classic by three-quarters of a length, he did fail to win a single race against older horses. Since Affirmed’s Horse of the Year campaign in 1978, only Charismatic in 1999, who was injured in the Belmont Stakes, from nine 3-year-olds to win Horse of the Year did not defeat older males. California Chrome threw in an absolute clunker in the Pennsylvania Derby in his first start after the Belmont Stakes in a race in which Bayern dazzled. While he did dance almost every dance, his only win in the second half of the year came against a fairly weak group of 3-year-old on the grass in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby.
HOW CALIFORNIA CHROME WINS: Eclipse Awards voters value California Chrome’s body of work with more stakes and graded stakes wins than the other finalists plus a bid for the Triple Crown that captivated a national audience.
CASE FOR MAIN SEQUENCE: Perfection is tough to argue against and Main Sequence went undefeated in four starts in 2014, all against Grade 1 competition. He has never lost on U.S. soil. Main Sequence capped the year with a win against the best U.S. turf horses and several elite European runners in the $3-million Breeders’ Cup Turf. Main Sequence, who became sick when he was shipped to the U.S. in December and spent a month at a veterinary clinic before he returned to training, won at four different tracks in three different states and rates as the most consistent of the three finalists. The Horse of the Year award has been dominated by male horses who excel on dirt throughout history, but the last five awards have gone to turf runner Wise Dan (twice) and three females.
MAIN SEQUENCE WINNING THE BREEDERS' CUP TURF
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
CASE AGAINST MAIN SEQUENCE: His four starts are by far the fewest of the finalists. Only two times has the Horse of the Year in the U.S. raced four times or less (although the tables below show a full schedule is becoming less critical). Main Sequence won all of his races by a half-length or less, so he was exciting but not dominant. The quality of competition in his three Grade 1 races prior to the Breeders’ Cup has been questioned. The 17 horses Main Sequence faced in those three races before the Breeders’ Cup Turf won 19 of 110 starts combined in 2014 and went a combined 2-for-54 in Grade 1 or Group 1 races last year. Main Sequence had 10 straight losses in Europe before coming to U.S., and there are some voters who might shy from awarding U.S. racing’s top prize to a horse who won once in 10 group stakes attempts in Europe and was winless in five Group 1 races.
Fewest Starts by Horse of the Year through 2004
Horse
HOY Season
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Native Dancer
1954
3
3
0
0
Ghostzapper
2004
4
4
0
0
Count Fleet
1943
6
6
0
0
Seattle Slew
1977
7
6
0
0
All Along
1983
7
4
1
1
Spend a Buck
1985
7
5
1
1
A.P. Indy
1992
7
5
0
1
Point Given
2001
7
6
0
0
Starts by Horse of the Year since 2004
Horse
HOY Season
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Saint Liam
2005
6
4
1
0
Invasor
2006
5
4
0
0
Curlin
2007
9
6
1
2
Curlin
2008
7
5
1
0
Rachel Alexandra
2009
8
8
0
0
Zenyatta
2010
6
5
1
0
Wise Dan
2012
6
5
1
0
Wise Dan
2013
7
6
1
0
HOW MAIN SEQUENCE WINS: Eclipse Awards voters focus on 2014 and reward Main Sequence for an undefeated season capped by a win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, while Bayern and California Chrome split the votes from voters who focus on the more mainstream dirt races.
PREDICTION: California Chrome narrowly prevails in a close race between three very deserving horses.