Three Horses Capable of Upsetting Eagle in Lecomte
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Horses break out of the starting gate at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
We are one week closer to Kentucky Derby 141, and with that we have another stakes race for 3-year-olds that offers qualifying points for the 2015 run for the roses. The Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds will be contested on Saturday, and 11 horses are entered to race for the $200,000 purse.
As you peruse your past performances in search of a winner in the Lecomte, you will notice that morning-line favorite Eagle will be starting from the extreme outside post position (#11). While I think that Eagle is a very nice horse and can be a Triple Crown competitor moving forward, I believe that this disadvantageous post position will be too much for the young colt to overcome on Saturday. With that being said, below you will find three horses I think have the best chance of upsetting Eagle in the Lecomte:
#2 Tiznow R J: This colt really seemed to like running at Fair Grounds in his effortless win there on Dec. 11. Since that race, it appears that Tiznow R J has been training well in the mornings, and considering his sire (father), Tiznow, won two editions of the 1 ¼-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic, I have to believe he is one of the horses best suited to the distance of the Lecomte. It doesn’t hurt to have trainer Steve Asmussen in your corner either, as he owns a 23-percent winning percentage in graded stakes races, the best of any trainer in the Lecomte field.
#4 War Story: There is nothing wrong with backing a horse who is undefeated, and War Story is 2-for-2 after the first two races of his career. The second of those two victories came at Fair Grounds, so we know he likes racing on this track. That information looks even better when you take a deeper look at this horse’s connections (the humans involved with his racing and training) because you will find some pretty brilliant statistics. Trainer Tom Amoss is winning 42-percent of his races so far at this Fair Grounds meet, and jockey James Graham currently holds a healthy lead in the jockey standings as well. When James Graham and Tom Amoss team up at Fair Grounds, they win 38-percent of the time. If nothing else, War Story has an awfully good chance in the Lecomte based on his human connections alone.
#6 Savoy Stomp: This is another colt that is linked with some pretty flashy human connections. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is a six-time winner of the EclipseAward for outstanding trainer and a finalist again for the 2014 award on Saturday evening. Savoy Stomp's jockey, Mike Smith, was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2003 and also is a two-time Eclipse Award winner. Savoy Stomp cost $875,000 at auction as a yearling, and from a pedigree perspective he certainly looks ready to take on a two-turn race for the first time. This colt has recently been stabled and training in South Florida and will be shipping to New Orleans for this race, but Pletcher made a similar move on two separate occasions with Intense Holiday last winter, resulting in a win and a second-place finish, so I don’t envision the added travel being a negative factor.
Betting Strategy
$3 exacta box: 2, 4, 6 = $18
$200,000 Lecomte StakesSaturday, Fair Grounds, Race 11, 6:24 PM E.T.One Mile and Seventy Yards, Three-Year-Olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
1
International Star (NY)
Miguel Mena
122
Mike Maker
2
Tiznow R J (FL)
Robby Albarado
116
Steve Asmussen
3
Four Leaf Chief (LA)
Florent Geroux
122
Steven Flint
4
War Story (KY)
James Graham
118
Tom Amoss
5
Hero of Humor (KY)
Alexander Reznikov
116
Gennadi Dorochenko
6
Savoy Stomp (KY)
Mike Smith
116
Todd Pletcher
7
Runhappy (KY)
Shaun Bridgmohan
116
Laura Wohlers
8
Killingit (KY)
Jamie Theriot
116
Laura Wohlers
9
Dekabrist (KY)
Sal Gonzalez, Jr.
120
Gennadi Dorochenko
10
Another Lemon Drop (KY)
Calvin Borel
118
Phillip Bauer
11
Eagle (KY)
Brian Hernandez Jr.
120
Neil Howard