Litfin At Large: Oaks and Derby Edition

THE OAKS/DERBY EDITION

Let the record show this to be Exhibits A & B why it is inadvisable to seriously handicap Oaks/Derby weekend until A) factoring in late scratches, and B) having a clear idea about weather and track conditions.

So of course, Exhibit A is the fact Omaha Beach was declared from the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) the day after the draw for post positions due to an entrapped epiglottis; and Exhibit B is a soggy forecast calling for steady rain the morning of Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) Day and continued rain into Derby Day.

No matter. We keep calm and handicap on because this is an outdoor sport, after all. All times are Eastern.

OAKS DAY

Edgewood Presented by Forcht Bank (CD, race 6, 1:17): Newspaperofrecord (1) swept her three races by 20 lengths last year. Her biggest threat could be stablemate Cambier Parc (2), who won both of her turf starts in South Florida over the winter.

A - 1

B - 2

Alysheba Presented by Sentient Jet (CD, race 7, 2:00): McKenzie (1) will try to hold off Seeking the Soul (8), with Tom's d'Etat (2) the only other conceivable threat.

A - 1, 8

B - 2

La Troienne Stakes (CD, race 8, 2:53): The main opinion here is against morning-line choice Secret Spice (9), who has never been this far, has never won away from Santa Anita Park, and makes her first start outside the Southern California circuit. She's a Julie (1) looms the logical alternative after a sharp score in the Bayakoa Stakes (G3) in her seasonal bow.

A - 1

B - 9

TwinSpires Turf Sprint Presented by Massmutual (CD, race 10, 5:04): This is a likely free bingo square as World of Trouble (6) gets back to sprinting on turf after going outside his comfort zone to get a hard-fought decision in the Carter Handicap (G1). Contrarians may also be using proven local lawn lovers Angaston (7), Undrafted(8), and Will Call (9) underneath.

Longines Kentucky Oaks (CD, race 11, 6:12): Looking for an upset here with Lady Apple (3), Positive Spirit (6), and Champagne Anyone (10) as keys, while relegating Bellafina (4) to backup status along with Motion Emotion (8), and to a lesser extent Out for a Spin (1).

Bellafina's worst race came over this track, her two best figures have come in sprints, and her three wins this year have come in very short fields. She has been amply hyped and seems vulnerable at a short price.

Positive Spirit (30-1), a half-sister to 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming , has won or placed in two starts at nine furlongs including a big win in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2), while Lady Apple (20-1) has won both of her two-turn starts including the Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

A - 3, 6, 10

B - 4, 8

C - 1

DERBY DAY

Humana Distaff (CD, race 6, 1:13): Marley's Freedom (7) was ostensibly "short" when fourth at odds-on in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), but she has no such excuse cutting back from a defeat at 1-2 in a slow-paced Beholder Mile Stakes (G1). Amy's Challenge (5) will try to make every pole a winning one.

A - 7

B - 5

Longines Churchill Distaff Mile (CD, race 7, 1:55): You won't get 6-1 like last year when Proctor's Ledge (3) won this race, but she will still be a square price against the likes of Precieuse (6) and Capla Temptress (7), who come off graded stakes wins at Gulfstream, and Valedictorian (10), who is in the best form of her life and will look to cross over with the early lead.

A - 3, 6

B - 7, 10

Churchill Downs Presented by TwinSpires (CD, race 8, 2:45): Defending titlist Limousine Liberal has been withdrawn (and retired), and Do Share (1) figures to bounce off a big-figure win in the Tom Fool Handicap (G3).

Whitmore (12) had to play watchdog chasing after Mitole (8) in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) last out, but the durable runner gets a better setup here thanks to the presence of speedball Promises Fulfilled (6).

A - 8, 12

B - 6

American Turf Presented by Ram Trucks (CD, race 9, 3:37): A Thread of Blue (1) is the one to catch and beat from the rail after sweeping his three starts at Gulfstream, but the $430,000 colt by Hard Spun  has no demonstrable edge numbers-wise over several opponents, notably Social Paranoia (2), Seismic Wave (5), Forever Mo (6,) and Casa Creed (7).

A - 1, 2

B - 5, 6, 7

Pat Day Mile Presented by LG And E And KU (CD, race 10, 4:28): Instagrand (10) is the one to beat cutting back after setting the pace in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but Mr. Money (7) has some appeal at a price.

The backups are Durkin's Call (1), Mr Money Bags (4) and Dunph(5).

A - 7, 10

B - 1, 4, 5

Old Forester Turf Classic (CD, race 11, 5:25): As usual in major grass races, Chad Brown holds a formidable hand with the trio of Raging Bull (2), Ticonderoga(10), and Bricks and Mortar (12).

Markitoff (5) ran Bricks and Mortar to a nose photo at 62-1 recently, and ran quite well on a yielding course at Churchill Downs last fall. Synchrony(9) rallied for third in this race a year ago on yielding turf.

A - 2, 12

B - 5, 9, 10

Kentucky Derby (CD, race 12, 6:50): Vekoma (6) benefits from a pace perspective due to the absence of Omaha Beach, which makes things easier for him up front, and also (potentially) from the prospect of a wet track with Speightstown  as his broodmare sire.

The Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) hasn't produced a meaningful contender since Funny Cide and Empire Maker in 2003, but that may change thanks to Tacitus (8), who has shown a willingness to rally through traffic and trouble, and whose dam, Close Hatches, was champion older mare of 2014 after winning both the Personal Ensign (G1) and Azeri (G2) on wet tracks.

No knocks on reigning champ Game Winner (16), other than another anticipated wide trip, and the fact that some others have caught up to him in terms of maturity.

Improbable (5) and Code of Honor (13) could work out comfy trips off an expected fast pace, while Maximum Security (7) remains a wildcard unbeaten and virtually untested through four daylight wins by better than 37 lengths. Roadster (17) displayed a good turn of foot to edge past Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but the fact that Mike Smith abandoned him for Omaha Beach is a negative.

A - 8, 16

B - 5, 6, 13

C - 7, 17