Improbable Brings Justify's Connections Back Together

One year after Justify  became only the 13th horse in history to sweep the Triple Crown, the majority of his connections have returned to the May 4 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) with the another white-blazed chestnut colt. 

WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing will try to repeat last year's success with Improbable, the colt who took over Justify's stall in Bob Baffert's Southern California stable.

While stablemate Game Winner was the 2-year-old star Nov. 2 at Churchill Downs scoring for owners Gary and Mary West in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Improbable became a buzz horse after taking the Street Sense Stakes on the undercard by 7 1/4 lengths. 

"It's incredible to think we're in a position again to have a chance at winning the Kentucky Derby," said WinStar's president and CEO, Elliott Walden.

WinStar has run 21 horses in the Derby since 2006, going only one year without a contender. Their first winner was Super Saver  in 2010.

"We've only won it twice, which is great, but you know, there's a lot of times that we get beat," Walden said. "So expectations are that we go in, we have a chance, and that's all you can ask for."

After the Street Sense, Starlight Racing bought SF Racing's share of Improbable's racing rights. The son of City Zip finished his season with a five-length victory in the Dec. 8 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1), kicking off his Derby trail campaign.

"He was even more impressive than the Juvenile winner, I thought," said Jack Wolf, who founded Starlight with his wife, Laurie. "Getting a race like that over the Churchill surface, and as you probably have already seen, his works over the surface are really impressive. A combination of his race record and his looks and being trained by Baffert is why we wanted to get into it."

Since arriving at Churchill Downs April 15 after a runner-up finish to the scratched Derby favorite Omaha Beach in the April 13 Arkansas Derby (G1), Improbable has had two works over the Louisville track. He drilled a half-mile April 22 in :48 flat and last tuned up with a five-furlong breeze April 28 in 1:00 3/5.

Improbable was a $200,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase by Maverick Racing (WinStar's racing arm) and China Horse Club, from Taylor Made Sales Agency's 2017 consignment. He was one of 13 purchases the partnership made at the sale together, two more than the year before when they bought Justify for $500,000 from Glennwood Farm.

"I think from the standpoint of what we saw in him as a yearling, he's very athletic," Walden said. "Liked the City Zip part of it, and his bottom side as well. Being out of an A.P. Indy mare (Rare Event), we hoped that he would be able to carry the speed that City Zip gives him two turns.

"He trained well here at the farm. We sent him to Bob. Pretty much I think it was the weekend that—it actually was around June and I know that Bob had him in Los Al and sent him to Del Mar when Justify was retired right after he had his parade at Del Mar and came back to the farm. Improbable actually went in his stall at Del Mar."

It didn't take long for people to draw comparisons between Improbable and Justify, especially with both chestnuts running in WinStar's white silks at Churchill Downs. But the two have always had their differences.

For starters, Justify never raced as a 2-year-old.

"Justify was a bigger horse, but both of them have extreme balance, and I think Improbable's real strength is his stride," Walden said. "He has a tremendous stride and great way of moving, similar to Justify. He gets over the ground really well. That's always beneficial in a race like the Kentucky Derby because of the distance and the demands of the race being a mile and a quarter, and just being able to get in that rhythm and get into that stride hopefully will prove beneficial—but that's his real strength is his stride."

That same stride helped Improbable accomplish a close runner-up finish in his sophomore debut, Oaklawn Park's March 16 Rebel Stakes (G2), where Long Range Toddy edged him by a neck at the wire. In the Arkansas Derby, Improbable was only a length behind frontrunning Omaha Beach at the wire. He finished 5 3/4 lengths ahead of Country House over a sloppy (sealed) track.

"In the first race, he was pretty wide. I'm not sure we learned a whole lot about the first race, but the second race, he didn't have a good incident at the gate, and he got really antsy in there," Walden said. "We had tried the blinkers on him to help him focus a little bit because as a 2-year-old, some of his workouts, he wanted to look at the grand stand a little bit and cock his head over to the outside, and so we tried to correct that with a very, very minor blinker. But the way that he acted in Arkansas for the Arkansas Derby, we decided to go ahead and take that off. Bob felt like that it wasn't a benefit, and, also, they kind of grabbed his tail when he started acting poorly in the Arkansas Derby, and that made him even worse."

Walden reported gate schooling had gone well for Improbable while stabled at Churchill Downs. Irad Ortiz Jr. is scheduled to ride Saturday from post 6. Improbable is co-second 5-1 choice along with stablemate Roadster, owned by Speedway Stable. Game Winner is the 9-2 favorite following Omaha Beach's scratch.

Starlight, who has run nine previous Derby starters, will also be taking a shot with Cutting Humor, who picked up Mike Smith as the jockey with Omaha Beach out. Local jockey Corey Lanerie was originally assigned to ride. The First Samurai  colt broke through for trainer Todd Pletcher in the March 24 Sunland Park Derby (G3).

Cutting Humor and Smith will break from post 11.

"One thing I like about him is that he's 30-1," Wolf laughed. "But on the serious side, he's working as well as he's ever worked. He's coming out of a race with a long enough break that he won't bounce off the big numbers that he put up in the Sunland Derby. He set a track record in the Sunland Derby, went a mile-and-eighth 1:46 4/5, which is a good three seconds faster than any of the other horses in this race have gone, so there's a lot to like."

Rain is in Saturday's forecast throughout the day, but both colts have experience in the slop. Cutting Humor ran over an off track in his debut race in September and finished second, and Improbable ran a credible race in the Arkansas Derby.

"The first two runs were designed to hopefully have him peak on Derby day," Walden said of Improbable. "And I think we would've loved to have won those starts, but I think in both starts, he ran incredibly well. I think it moved him forward. I think we learned a little something about him, and so hopefully he'll put his best foot forward next Saturday."