Improbable Favored in Wide-Open Preakness

With the first four finishers across the wire in the May 4 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) passing on the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1), the mantle settled on Improbable.  

The City Zip colt who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby—fifth before the disqualification of Maximum Security—was made the 5-2 morning-line favorite after drawing post 4 for the $1.5 million Preakness May 15 at Power Plant Live! in downtown Baltimore. Second on the morning line is Gary Barber's War of Will (4-1), who drew the rail in a field of 13 for the race at Pimlico Race Course.

Elliott Walden, president of WinStar Farm, said he was "happy" with post 4 for Improbable, who is owned by WinStar in partnership with China Horse Club and Starlight Racing. The blaze-faced chestnut is trained by seven-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert.

"We're fine," Walden said. "Posts are usually anticlimactic in the Preakness because there are no more than 12-14 horses and there's a long stretch. We have Mike Smith riding him, and he'll know what to do."

Improbable, who was bred in Kentucky by Ian Banwell's St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr., was second in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) before the Run for the Roses.

For Mark Casse, who trains the multiple graded stakes-winning War of Will, déjà vu was not a pleasant experience. After landing the rail in the Kentucky Derby, the 3-year-old son of War Front  will once again break from post 1.

"The odds of getting post 1 in the Derby and Preakness are 260-1," Casse said. "Nothing is ever easy. I would have preferred to draw outside, but it is what it is, and we have to deal with it."

The Kentucky-bred, produced by Flaxman Holdings, was bumped by Maximum Security in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby and was elevated from eighth to seventh.

Peter Redekop B.C.'s Anothertwistafate wound up with post 12 for the Preakness, but trainer Blaine Wright saw a silver lining in it.

"He's a big, long-striding horse, so we wanted to get him outside," Wright said about the son of Scat Daddy. "It's OK. We wanted somewhere between 7-9, but we'll be fine."

Anothertwistafate, who was second most recently in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3), was bred in Kentucky by Pursuit of Success. He was pegged at 6-1 on the morning line.

Runnymede Racing's Alwaysmining, a winner of six straight, drew post 7 and will be ridden by Daniel Centeno. The Stay Thirsty  gelding, bred by Avla Pitts, will attempt to become the first Maryland-bred Preakness winner since the J. William Boniface-trained Deputed Testamony in 1983.

"It's our first time we've been through something like this," said Runnymede's Greg Bentley. "We drew No. 7. Our son, Andrew, when he was young always rooted for No. 7. Wouldn't it be great for this horse to win his seventh in a row as No. 7."

Alwaysmining, a private purchase last summer, won Laurel Park's Federico Tesio Stakes in his last outing April 20. He is trained by Kelly Rubley, who will saddle her first Preakness starter and hopes to become the first female to condition a classic winner.

Bourbon Lane Stable and Lake Star Stable's Bourbon War, second in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and fourth in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1), drew post 2. Trained by Mark Hennig, the son of Tapit  will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. and will be equipped with blinkers for the first time.

"At least we aren't going to get hung out wide, and he'll be a little more tractable with the blinkers," Hennig said. "He can fall in behind the pacesetter and save some ground.

"The blinkers are to put him a little more into the bridle," Hennig continued. "We tried breezing him in them, and they seemed to make him a little more aggressive. We're not looking for him to be on the lead, but like in the Florida Derby, Code of Honor started his run before we did and we ended up having to (go) around him. Going wide cost us some ground. We just want to get first run on some horses. We've been getting second and third run on some horses, and it has cost a placing a time or two."

Hennig is saddling his first runner in the Preakness in 15 years. He sent out Personal Hope to a fourth-place finish in 1993, and Eddington finished third in 2004.

Ten Strike Racing and Madaket Stables' Warrior's Charge is 12-1 on the morning line and will break from post 3 under Javier Castellano. He's one of two runners for trainer Brad Cox, who also will send out Lexington Stakes winner Owendale for Jim Rupp's Rupp Racing. The two will be the first classic starters for Cox.

"We're near the rail, and hopefully we'll break well and get a good trip on or right off the lead," said Ten Strike Racing's Marshall Graham. "We put up the supplemental payment, so, sure, I've handicapped the race, and we fit numbers-wise. It will be interesting to see what the pace is, and if we can be out there under a favorable pace scenario, we have a big shot."

Warrior's Charge, by Munnings , has won his last two races, but the Preakness will be his first against stakes company.

The full draw with morning-line odds:

(Post, Horse, Jockey, Odds)

1. War of Will, Tyler Gaffalione, 4-1

2. Bourbon War, Irad Ortiz Jr., 12-1

3. Warrior's Charge, Javier Castellano, 12-1

4. Improbable, Mike Smith, 5-2

5. Owendale, Florent Geroux, 10-1

6. Market King, Jon Court, 30-1

7. Alwaysmining, Daniel Centeno, 8-1

8. Signalman, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1

9. Bodexpress, John Velazquez, 20-1

10. Everfast, Joel Rosario, 50-1

11. Laughing Fox, Ricardo Santana Jr., 20-1

12. Anothertwistafate, Jose Ortiz, 6-1

13. Win Win Win, Julian Pimentel, 15-1