Litfin: Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Edition

This year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) has become a never-ending story, and with none of its first four finishers under the wire returning for the sequel two weeks later, a baker's dozen will line up for the 144th running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course May 18.

In addition to being the second half of a two-day double that starts with Friday's Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) for 3-year-old fillies, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown concludes a $1 million all-stakes pick five and a $2 million pick four. The Dixie (G2T) for older turf routers is positioned as the penultimate leg for both of those sequential wagers.

Preceding Friday's Black-Eyed Susan is the Pimlico Special (G3), which has been lengthened to 10 furlongs for the first time.

Let's start with the weekend headliner.

SATURDAY

Preakness (Pim, race 13, 6:48 ET): Bob Baffert has won this race seven times, but never with a horse coming off three straight defeats. That is the obstacle facing morning-line favorite Improbable (4), who ate a ton of slop and ran fifth in the Derby (elevated to fourth) as the lukewarm 4-1 choice.

There is a 20% chance for showers Saturday, but Improbable is likely to benefit greatly if he can get back on a fast track, following two very different trips in the muck and mire. He ran a solid second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after being maneuvered outside into the clear early on. In the Derby, though, he was covered up behind and between horses for the first mile, and did not seem at all comfortable with the kickback he was forced to absorb. 

Up to this point, Improbable is the only legitimate grade 1-type runner in the field, and he will be very difficult to stop.

Based on the Derby outcome, Bourbon War (2), is a generous 12-1 on the morning line as he exits a fourth-place finish in a slow-paced renewal of the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) behind Maximum Security and Code of Honor, who were first and third under the wire in Louisville.

Bourbon War adds blinkers, and the stretch-running son of Tapit  will almost surely get a better setup this time. Both of his wins have come off workouts—as a first-time starter and off a 48-day layoff—o coming in off a seven-week break is a potential plus.

Brad Cox could have them coming and going with Warrior's Charge (3) and Owendale (5), who are double-digit odds on the line as they go up in class and distance off impressive wins with competitive figures.

Warrior's Charge improved steadily through four starts at Oaklawn Park, culminating with two lopsided wire-to-wire scores over maidens and first-level allowance foes. Javier Castellano, who was aboard Anothertwistafate (12) for a runner-up finish in the Stonestreet Lexington (G3), picks up the mount as Florent Geroux opts to stay with Lexington winner Owendale. 

Owendale unleased a sweeping five-wide move to win the Lexington, and could get another favorable pace scenario if Alwaysmining (7) and Anothertwistafate take shots at his barn mate early.

A - 4

B - 2, 5

C - 3, 12

Dixie (Pim, race 12, 5:39 ET): Inspector Lynley (11) and Catholic Boy (12) drew outside as the first two betting choices. That could open things up for a bit of speculation, but they are the most accomplished members of this group. 

Catholic Boy is the class of the field as a grade 1 winner on turf and dirt, but hasn't been out since being eased in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) first time against older horses. Moreover, he will not get the kind of "summer-firm" turf that was underfoot for all four of his prior wins on grass.

Inspector Lynley has won stakes races each of the past four years, including two already this season, and the durable 6-year-old has a rate-and-finish style that should not be too adversely affected by an outside draw.

The backups are Just Howard (2), who has won three of four at the distance and had some stretch traffic first time back from a layoff; and Have At It (5), who won the Hill Prince (G2T) before being inexplicably sent to the lead in the Hollywood Derby (G1T) to wind up an otherwise-promising sophomore campaign.

A - 11, 12

B - 2, 5

FRIDAY

Pimlico Special (Pim, race 10, 4:14): You're to Blame (13) is a candidate to move up off his initial outing of the year. The same holds true for Rally Cry (2), who appeared poised to pounce but came up empty as the favorite when edged for third by War Story (scratched today) in the Charles Town Classic (G2).

The razor-sharp local runner Cordmaker (6) has won three of his past four, and he has considerable appeal if anything close to the 12-1 quote.

Also in the mix are Tenfold (8), who was a close third in last year's Preakness, two starts before winning the Jim Dandy (G2); and Flameaway (11), a multiple stakes winner who looms the one to catch.

A - 13

B - 2, 6

C - 8, 11

Black-Eyed Susan (Pim, race 11, 4:48 ET): Despite the presence of several others with early speed, Cookie Dough (4) looks like the best of them, and her win in the My Dear Girl division of the $400,000 Florida Sire Stakes last fall indicates she is not merely a need-the-lead sort. She has had a breather since a pair of good-figure efforts in the Davona Dale (G2) and Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), and gets a major rider switch to reigning Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr.

In the event that Cookie Dough gets deep-fried up front, Point of Honor (8), who has also been freshened since the GP Oaks, appears to own the most potent closing kick.

The backups are Todd Pletcher's pair of Always Shopping (6) and Off Topic (2), who were first and third in the Gazelle (G2) last out.

Always Shopping has won both of her nine-furlong starts and is improving steadily, while Off Topic may prefer to be positioned farther off the pace than she was in the Gazelle.

A - 4, 8

B - 2, 6