Preview: Road to Preakness Has Been Highly Improbable

It's interesting that the colt named Improbable is the favorite for the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1), which is missing the first four across the wire of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). It's also interesting Improbable is winless in three starts this year and will be facing 12 highly charged 3-year-olds in the 1 3/16-mile race at venerable Pimlico Race Course, home of the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Only four runners from the roughly run Derby in the mud at Churchill Downs May 4 have made their way to Baltimore: Improbable; War of Will, who was the most hindered runner on the turn behind Maximum Security; Bodexpress, who took a little extracurricular activity; and Win Win Win. The "new shooters" outweigh the Derby entrants, with each holding the promise of breaking through at the classic level.

To some, the race might seem to have "fallen apart." That's highly inaccurate. This appears to be one of the more intriguing renewals in some time.

It's time to put aside the issues surrounding the Derby and focus on the Preakness.

The future of the host track is in a tug of war between the city of Baltimore and the Maryland Jockey Club's parent, The Stronach Group. Many side with a move to Washington, D.C.-based Laurel Park, but many Marylanders cling to the sport's history and place at Pimlico. They have a point.

A few old-timers speak of the exploits of Maryland-bred Challedon in 1939 and Calumet Farm's run through the 1940s. More recall the Bill Boniface-trained Maryland-bred Deputed Testamony's score in '83 and the electricity of the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer duel of 30 years ago. Many haven't forgotten Forty Niner's rough play with Winning Colors in 1988 that set the table for Risen Star, Smarty Jones ' 11 1/2-length runaway in 2004, and Scrappy T's errant pass into Afleet Alex 's path at the head of the lane in 2005.

Those classic moments, along with the plant's physical issues—from electrical outages to water main breaks outside the clubhouse entrance to the closure of its ancient wooden grandstand—continue to add baubles to Old Hilltop's charm bracelet.

Horsemen love the Pimlico surface, the camaraderie of the stakes barn, and the MJC's Mason-Dixon Line hospitality.

Derby winner or not, Marylanders turn out to fill the infield and the nooks and crannies of the aging facility. Preakness Day is a pleasure cruise in a rust bucket.

Trainer Bob Baffert takes aim at a record-tying eighth Preakness with the copper-coated Improbable, owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing. The same team took last year's Preakness—and the Triple Crown—with Justify . Though winless at 3, Improbable lost a heartbreaker in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G1) in March and was a length behind Omaha Beach in the April 13 Arkansas Derby (G1) while finishing 5 3/4 lengths ahead of Derby hero Country House. "Big Money" Mike Smith being aboard adds considerable leverage as the son of City Zip makes his third start in six weeks.

Gary Barber's War of Will, the first Preakness horse on the grounds this week, has cut a figure each and every time he's gone to the track. Trainer Mark Casse has shown confidence in his runner, who is seemingly none the worse for wear after breaking from the inside post in the Derby. War of Will also drew post 1 for the Preakness, but the inside spot is not nearly as deadly as it is in a 19-horse Derby field. American Pharoah  in 2015 did just fine breaking from the wood. A clear run at Pimlico should put the son of War Front  in the frame.

The state's best hopes lie with Runnymede Racing's Alwaysmining, who will break from post 7. Bred by respected horsewoman Avla "Poppet" Pitts, the son of Stay Thirsty  seeks his seventh consecutive win in Maryland since being purchased privately. Trainer Kelly Rubley, based at Greg and Caroline Bentley's barn at nearby Fair Hill Training Center, is a rising star and seeks to become the first female trainer to win a North American classic. Expect the local handicappers to cut his price below his 8-1 mark on the morning line.

Local trainer Michael Trombetta, who worked on the backstretch of Pimlico when he was a high school senior, brings Win Win Win from Fair Hill. A confirmed closer, Win Win Win, bred in Florida and owned by Charlotte Weber's Live Oak Plantation, should get the pace he'll need to be successful Saturday.

Another closer in the Preakness field is Bourbon War, who was a game second to Code of Honor in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and a closing fourth behind Maximum Security in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). Trainer Mark Hennig is adding blinkers to the son of Tapit  to sharpen the colt's focus and, hopefully, help him engage with his rivals a bit sooner.

A $410,000 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale weanling, Bourbon War races for Bourbon Lane Stable and Greg Burns' Lake Star Stable. Hennig will saddle his first Preakness starter since third-place finisher Eddington in 2004.

Trainer Steve Asmussen won the 2007 Preakness with Curlin  and has brought Alex and JoAnn Lieblong's Laughing Fox to the Preakness Party. The chestnut with the large blaze earned a starting berth at Pimlico with a score in the inaugural Oaklawn Park Invitational Stakes on Derby Day in Hot Springs, Ark.

While Baffert (seven wins) and D. Wayne Lukas (six wins; trains Robert Baker and William Mack's Market King) are the straws that stir the Black-Eyed Susans, trainer Brad Cox makes his Preakness bow with a pair of live wires in Rupp Racing's Owendale and Ten Strike Racing and Madaket Stables' Warrior's Charge.

Both runners are "stout" horses according to Cox, and the connections of Warrior's Charge are stout enough in their conviction to pony up the $150,000 supplemental fee to enter. Warrior's Charge exits back-to-back two-turn victories by six and 6 1/2 lengths, with speed figures that continue to climb the charts.

Owendale, a $200,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase by superagent Mike Ryan for Jim Rupp, has blossomed over the last several weeks like his stablemate. Cox set the "reset" button off a poor showing in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), and the son of Into Mischief  responded with a sharp win in Keeneland's Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) over Anothertwistafate.

Outliers in the field are Signalman (30-1), who is rested off a third-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2); Top Racing, Global Thoroughbreds, and GDS Racing Stable's Bodexpress (20-1), who is still a maiden; and Calumet Farm's Everfast (50-1), who was late to the party, joining the field May 15.