Analyzing a Blockbuster Card at Belmont Park

Saturday's blockbuster program at Belmont Park features eight grade 1 stakes races, climaxed by the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets, and including the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, which is without a doubt the race of the year for older males thus far.

There is an early pick five (races 1-5) with a $500,000 guaranteed pool, as well as a $500,000 pick six (6-11) and a $1.5 million late pick four (8-11). The latter is an all-grade 1 sequence made up of the Woody Stephens Stakes Presented By Mohegan Sun, the Met Mile, the Manhattan, and the Belmont. National TV coverage begins with NBCSN from 2:30-4 p.m. EDT, before switching over to NBC from 4-7.

The Belmont is often referred to as the "Test of the Champion," but while the remarkable Triple Crown winners Justify  and American Pharoah  certainly fit that description, bear in mind that many not-so-remarkable types have won this 12-furlong affair—and even Justify is on a long list of Belmont winners that never won again.

Let's start with the Belmont and the Met Mile, followed by opinions on the earlier races. (All times Eastern.)

Belmont (race 11, 6:37): Many will view this as a two-horse race between War of Will (9) and Tacitus (10), but they are somewhat difficult to gauge and neither has a big edge on several others based on their peak performances.

It's hard to say where War of Will would have ended up in the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) had he merely stayed on the rail around the far turn and slipped through inside Maximum Security. Indeed, he did exactly that two weeks later in the Preakness (G1) and enjoyed a dream run to take control through upper stretch.

At least in theory, this seems like Tacitus' race to lose. The regally bred son of Tapit , who has sired three of the past five Belmont winners as well as 2015 runner-up Frosted , was playing catch-up winning the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2), and showed the toughness to overcome traffic and trouble in those formative races. He was a bit slow to settle into stride while eating slop first time through the stretch of the Kentucky Derby (only his fifth start), but he never gave up and finished with good courage. With five weeks off and three solid workouts on the track, he appears primed for a big effort.

If we've been right about enough of the earlier races, however, it would be nice to have some or all among Everfast (2), Spinoff (6), Sir Winston (7) and Intrepid Heart (8) still in the mix.

Everfast and Sir Winston figure close based on their respective second-place finishes in the Preakness and Peter Pan (G3), but it's just hard to fathom exactly where those efforts came from, since the races were light years better than anything they had done previously.

Spinoff and Intrepid Heart should make their presence felt for Todd Pletcher, who has won the Belmont three times in addition to a couple of nasty beats with Commissioner  (2014) and Destin  (2016), who were both nipped at the wire.

Intrepid Heart is a half brother to Commissioner (who also used the Peter Pan as a prep), and the Tapit colt will likely benefit from the addition of blinkers.

Draw a line through Spinoff's Derby, which is easy to do since he never appeared comfortable in the sloppy going, and he displays a pattern of steadily improving races, notably a sharp try in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) when five lengths clear of the third finisher.

In Todd we trust.

A - 10

B - 6, 8, 9

C - 2, 7

Met Mile (race 9, 4:46): This absolutely stellar renewal is spiced up by the presence of Coal Front (1) and Thunder Snow (4), who make their first starts since taking the Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum City-District One (G2) and the Dubai World Cup Presented By Emirates Airlines (G1).

That was the second consecutive Dubai World Cup win for Thunder Snow, whose earnings now total more than $16.3 million, and he handled this surface well in a fast-paced edition of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last fall prior to a gutsy third in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). A mile isn't really his best distance, though, and the long-range goal is another shot at the Classic.

I'm going to key off McKinzie (2), Firenze Fire (7) and Prince Lucky (9). 

Bob Baffert went 4 for 4 in graded stakes on the 2017 Belmont Stakes undercard, including the Met Mile with Mor Spirit , and he has the deserving favorite in McKinzie, who is a graded stakes winner at four different distances and comes off a push-button performance to win the Alysheba (G2).

Firenze Fire is the horse for the course, as his fastest races at ages 2, 3, and 4 (all wins) have been delivered over Big Sandy beginning with the 2017 Champagne.

Prince Lucky was tremendous winning the Hal's Hope (G3) and Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) when returned from a layoff early this year, and after that he merely reaffirmed his dislike for off going as the even-money choice in the Westchester (G3). I simply can't resist him as a bounce-back play at 12-1 on the morning line.

Meanwhile, Mitole (3) hasn't lost in well over a year, and the crack sprinter showed a new dimension using stalk-and-pounce tactics to take the Churchill Downs Presented By TwinSpires.com (G1).

A - 2, 7, 9

B - 3, 4

Quick takes on the six supporting grade 1 races:

Longines Just A Game (race 4, 1:22): Rushing Fall (4) is a neck away from being undefeated through eight starts, and the six-time graded stakes winner should control the pace. The main danger is the streaking Beau Recall (3), who has won three of four since transferred to Brad Cox.

A - 4

B - 3

Ogden Phipps (race 5, 2:01): Midnight Bisou (2) and her 7-for-7 record at the distance will take some beating, but 20-time winner Escape Clause (4) ran her to a desperate photo in the Apple Blossom (G1) despite early trouble.

Come Dancing (1) has been other-worldly this year, romping in the Distaff Handicap (G3) and Ruffian (G2), and she could shake loose from the rail.

A - 2

B - 1, 4

Jaipur Invitational (race 6, 2:41): World of Trouble (8) has won four in a row since getting edged late in the Breeders's Cup Turf Sprint (G1), and those wins have come on all kinds of footing, including a sloppy renewal of the Carter Handicap (G1).

He will have to hold off Disco Partner (6), who has won the past two Jaipurs, beginning with a world-record six furlongs in 1:05.67 seconds in 2017. The 7-year-old is 9 for 14 on Belmont turf and just 1 for 10 on other grass courses.

The durable mare Belvoir Bay (7) fires every time, and has beaten the boys before.

A - 8

B - 6, 7

Acorn (race 7, 3:22): I'll use Serengeti Empress (1) as an A with some trepidation because she is an all-or-nothing type and under the hammer breaking from the rail in a matchup loaded with speed.

It's impossible to say how good Guarana (7) might be off a lengthy debut win in the slop, but drawing toward the outside gives her options if Cookie Dough (3) and/or Fancy Dress Party (5) take it to Serengeti Empress from the outset.

Queen of Beas (8) and Ce Ce (9) also drew favorably. The former is 2 for 2 on fast tracks, while the latter showed considerable ability in two starts at Santa Anita Park, the latest against older fillies and mares.

Jeltrin (2) never fired behind Serengeti Empress in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), but fits here off a 51-1 shocker in the Davona Dale (G2) out of the chute at Gulfstream Park.

A - 1, 8, 9

B - 5, 7

C - 2

Woody Stephens (race 8, 4:04): Complexity (4) makes his first start since faltering badly as the second choice in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but we know he's good off workouts and his win in the Champagne (G1) indicates the talent is there.

Mind Control (9) has been freshened since a three-race campaign at Aqueduct Racetrack that produced wins in the Jerome and Bay Shore (G3) sandwiched around a placing in the Gotham (G3).

The Juddmonte Farms homebred Honest Mischief (1) is a half brother to First Defence, who captured the seven-furlong Forego (G1) in 2008. Moreover, his dam, Honest Lady, was a four-time grade 1/grade 2 winner at seven-eighths of a mile.

Much Better (2) was finished early in the slop last out, but was a good second to Mind Control in the Bay Shore prior to that.

Unlike last year's Woody Stephens, in which Met Mile contender Promises Fulfilled set a screaming pace of 21.46 and 43.68 while being chased by World of Trouble, there isn't an abundance of speed in this edition. Landeskog (5) could get brave up front, and it could prove noteworthy that his sire is Munnings, a three-time graded stakes winner at seven furlongs beginning with the 2009 Woody Stephens by over five lengths.

A - 4, 9

B - 1, 2, 5

Manhattan (race 10, 5:36): Chad Brown sends out four of the 10 horses in the field, topped by Bricks and Mortar (8), who is going after his third win in a seven-figure stakes this season.

Of Brown's other three, Robert Bruce (3) and Olympico (7) have the most appeal. Robert Bruce had a bunch of excuses when off the board behind Olympico in the Fort Marcy (G3T), as in first time out in six months, too close to the pace, boggy course, etc. He was beaten just a length in this race a year ago despite traffic.

Channel Maker (10) had some trouble when fifth behind Bricks and Mortar in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1T). Keep in mind, though, he ran without Lasix that day in favor of a nine-pound break in the weights.

A - 8, 10

B - 3, 7