Ohio Derby Could Add up for Math Wizard

There's a good deal of interesting stakes action on the first official Saturday of summer. The spotlight shines brightest on the Jersey Shore as Monmouth Park puts on four stakes highlighted by the United Nations (G1T), which is the only grade 1 event in North America. The undercard includes the Eatontown (G3T), Philip H. Iselin (G3) and $100,000 Lady's Secret.

Meanwhile Cleveland rocks with the $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3) as Thistledown hosts the richest race on this side of the Atlantic Ocean. 

An 11-horse renewal of the Wilshire (G3T) kicks off closing weekend at Santa Anita Park. And on the outskirts of Toronto, the Singspiel (G3T) at Woodbine looks like a showdown between Tiz a Slam, fresh off a front-running score in the Louisville (G3T) and Melmich, a tough-luck veteran who has been second in six of his past eight graded stakes including the 2018 Singspiel.

While tackling races with "A-B-C" contender rankings is the usual approach in this space, this week's races seemed to lend themselves more to single-race play, focusing on sleepers that may get overlooked. 

Ohio Derby (Tdn, race 9, 5:10 ET): With Global Campaign's foot issues expected to keep him out, the focus will obviously be on the two horses exiting Triple Crown races: Owendale (2), who rallied for third in the Preakness (G1), and Long Range Toddy (3), who was sawed off behind Maximum Security in the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1).

Owendale has developed into a deep closer, which may work here since the two outside horses—Bethlehem Road (6) and Dare Day (7)—are undefeated speed horses stretching out. And should Long Range Toddy run back to his last race on a fast track, a determined win over Improbable in a division of the Rebel (G2), he is logical enough, too.

All that said, I'm inclined to fool around with Math Wizard (1), who has had a seven-week freshening since coming up a flat fourth in the $300,000 Oaklawn Park Invitational as the 5-2 favorite. He'll be a much better price here as the blinkers come off, and if he runs back to his penultimate effort gaining 10 lengths through the mid-stages of the Wood Memorial Presented By NYRA Bets (G2), he's on the board somewhere.

United Nations (Mth, race 11, 5:28 ET): Chad Brown and Mike Maker each send out two contenders. Brown, who put Tony Gallardo on Funtastic  for a 23-1 front-end shocker in last year's renewal, puts Gallardo on 12-1 longshot Arrocha(3) and Jose Ortiz on 2-1 favorite Focus Group (4). Maker counters with Bigger Picture (1), who won this race in 2017 and finished third a year ago, and hard-knocking Zulu Alpha (6), winner of the Mac Diarmida (G2T) and William L. McKnight (G3T) earlier this season.

The pace complexion for this three-turn affair is murky, and Catcho En Die (5) may be the one to capitalize on the lack of early speed. Three starts after being claimed for $40,000 last spring, he took the Stars N Stripes (G3T) flagfall to finish at 8-1, and it's conceivable he controls the tempo following a useful comeback against Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan (G1T).

It's also possible Catcho En Die isn't good enough, so if it comes down to who's got the best closing kick Monarchs Glen (8) may have what it takes as the 15-1 outsider on the morning line. The homebred gelding by Frankel gets more distance after rallying belatedly in his first two U.S. outings. He just ran the final three furlongs of the Monmouth (G2T) in a shade over 34 seconds.

Philip H. Iselin (Mth, race 10, 5:00 ET): Diamond King (5) was edged by Runnin'toluvya (3) after a long duel in the rich Charles Town Classic (G2) at equal weights, but gets seven pounds from him in this rematch. A likely scenario finds them hooking up again, and if they deep-fry each other up front, the prime beneficiary should be Monongahela (7), who has been running in longer routes since early winter and is finally back at his best distance.

The likeliest longshot possibilities seem like Just Call Kenny (4), whose last victory was the 2017 edition of the Iselin, and Zanotti (6), whose only local appearance was a close second in the 2018 Monmouth Cup (G3). Zanotti, who raced wide in a sprint prep in his first start of the year, is 5-5-0 from 11 starts under Jorge Vargas Jr., who returns to the saddle.

Lady's Secret (Mth, race 12, 5:57 ET): There's no clear-cut favorite in this filly-and-mare route. My Miss Lilly (1) is the tepid 3-1 choice as she looks for her first win since the Gazelle (G2) in April of last year. The co-second choices at 7-2 are Pink Sands (3), who was beaten a dozen lengths in the Ruffian (G2) most recently, and Alberobello (8), who is drawn widest and may get caught up dueling for the lead with Coffee Crush (6).

If it weren't for the presence of Alberobello, I'd kind of like Coffee Crush going turf to dirt, since her pedigree (by Medaglia d'Oro  and out of a Najran mare) and running style are both conducive for the surface switch.

But with a contested pace expected, things could fall into place for Crimson Frost (2), another turf-to-dirt proposition who was back on short rest when claimed for $62,500 by Michelle Nevin at Belmont Park in early May. Just seven days before that, Crimson Frost chased a loose Alberobello around Big Sandy and wound up a clear second (her seventh straight in-the-money finish). I can envision a cozy inside-stalking trip at 8-1 or so in this match-up.

Wilshire (SA, race 8, 4:36 PT): This might be the best betting race on this week's stakes menu, as no fewer than eight contenders are single-digit odds on the line.

Storm the Hill (2) is a lukewarm 7-2, and will be hard to beat if she puts forth the kind of effort that won her the 2018 Wilshire from off the pace at nearly 10-1. But she hasn't been out since last fall, when she improved to 5-0-2 from seven local starts by winning the Senator Ken Maddy (G3T) down the hill.

Maybe she's ready, maybe she needs a race. In any event, we're going with the two runners exiting the Gamely (G1T), Ollie's Candy (1) and Meal Ticket (5), who both wound up off the board.

Ollie's Candy was making her first start since a neck loss in the Del Mar Oaks (G1T) last fall, and never really got rolling until it was way too late. Meal Ticket (5) put in a middle move to be positioned just off the leaders leaving the backstretch, but was hemmed in through the far turn and into the stretch. Even so, she wound up less than three lengths behind Vasilika and Rymska, who have combined for 11 graded stakes victories.

Ollie's Candy has subsequently turned in a pair of bullet workouts, and she figures to improve second time back. Meal Ticket picks up Mike Smith, and clear sailing may be all that she needs.