Sizing Up Saturday's Stakes at Woodbine

Saturday, June 29 is a huge day for our horseplayer friends in We The North Nation, as the $1 million Queen's Plate headlines a six stakes program at Woodbine Racetrack that also includes the Dance Smartly (G2T) and the Highlander (G1T), which is Saturday's only grade 1 race in North America. 

Those three races are packaged in another Cross Country Pick Five with two races from Belmont Park—the Mother Goose (G2) and a starter allowance turf sprint.

Saturday is also closing day at Churchill Downs, which cards three stakes including the Debutante and Bashford Manor (G3), a pair of $125,000 events for 2-year-olds.

And down in South Florida, five sprint stakes go on Summit Of Speed Day at Gulfstream Park, highlighted by the Princess Rooney (G2), a Breeders' Cup Challenge race for the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1); and the Smile Sprint (G3). Kathleen O'Connell sends out the favorites in both races, with Stormy Embrace a 4-5 choice to win her second straight Princess Rooney and Jalen Journey 9-5 to keep rolling after three blowout victories over the track. Ironically enough, the marathon 14-race Summit of Speed card has evolved into something of an endurance test for all concerned.

In race order, let's have a closer look at the four stakes that begin the 50-cent Cross Country pick five.

Dance Smartly (WO, race 8, 4:18 EDT): Named in honor of the only filly to sweep the Canadian Triple Crown, the Dance Smartly has two obvious favorites in Holy Helena (1), who won the 2017 Queen's Plate and was third as the favorite in this race a year ago; and Starship Jubilee (2), whose four wins over the local turf course include the 2017 Dance Smartly.

Holy Helena enters off a troubled fourth in the New York (G2T), and prior to that turned in a peak performance to wear down Ickymasho, who has since won two stakes and been beaten a head in another. How you rank Holy Helena ought to be a race-day decision dependent on weather, because the Adena Springs homebred has not handled rain-softened ground well in two prior attempts.

Starship Jubilee is following the same schedule as last year, stretching out after weakening late in the one-mile Nassau (G2T). She was done in by a speed duel in the 2018 Dance Smartly, but may get an unpressured lead this time.

We'll use the two Augustin Stable runners in backup mode. Lift Up (7) makes her seasonal debut for Michael Dickinson. She won several times with two months or more rest between starts, and Dickinson is 6-for-14 to start the year. I also like the switch back to Alex Cintron, who is 3 for 3 aboard the mare on grass. Rock my Love (8) is first-time Lasix in her United States debut for Jonathan Thomas, and her close second in the Shadwell Prix de la Nonette (G2T) at Deuaville last summer suggests she classes up. Consider moving her to "A" status if it rains.

A - 1, 4

B - 7, 8

Highlander (WO, race 9, 4:51 ET): Caribou Club (2) is back from a fruitless trip to Dubai, but his North American form includes a win over this course in the 2018 Connaught Cup (G2T) and a game score over two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1T) winner Stormy Liberal before going overseas. That's too much for these.

Six furlongs could be a touch short for the favorite, though, so we're also keying White Flag (8), a three-time winner at the distance in a spot where the others are collectively 0-for-6 going six on turf.

At tempting prices, the B-team consists of Tricks to Doo (6) and Wet Your Whistle (7). Tricks to Doo has shown some ability in four turf sprints going five and 5 1/2 furlongs, but he was fine going six on dirt in his formative races and I actually think the added ground will benefit him greatly because all his wins have come when right on top of the pace and he's just been out-quicked in the shorter dashes recently. Wet Your Whistle had a breakthrough effort shipping up to Woodbine for an allowance win on the synthetic surface last December and has returned better than ever with two sharp wins in turf sprints, followed by two bullet workouts.

A - 2, 8

B - 6, 7

Mother Goose (Bel, race 8, 5:18 ET): Dunbar Road (1) will be heavily favored to notch her first stakes win for Chad Brown.

Brown has been aggressive with Dunbar Road, putting her in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) for a grinding second-place finish right after a debut maiden victory and then entering her in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), where she did not make the field from the also-eligible list. Dunbar Road, a $350,000 sales graduate from the 2017 Keeneland September Sale, prepped for this with a facile romp over allowance rivals and will be hard to stop over the same course and trip.

The X-factor is the Mark Casse-trained Wings of Dawn (6), an improving $600,000 buy out of the same sale who was scratched from last Saturday's grassy Wild Applause Stakes to try dirt here for the first time. She has the pedigree, by Medaglia d'Oro  and out of the Mineshaft  mare Juanita, who was a dual grade 2 winner on dirt. She also got a great draw, as the outside post in a short field of six will enable her to avoid kickback.

I don't know if Jeltrin (4) has the firepower to take this but I find it heartening that, while Dunbar Road and Wings of Dawn went for a total of $950,000 and have earned back only a fraction of it, Jeltrin hammered for all of $7,000 at the very same auction and has won nearly 35 times her purchase price, thanks in large part to a win in the Davona Dale (G2) at better than 50-1. You go girl!

A - 1

B - 6

Queen's Plate (WO, race 9, 5:36 ET): Sam-Son Farm has won the Queen's Plate a record five times, including the 1991 edition with Dance Smartly, and they have the only filly in the race as their homebred Desert Ride (1) takes on 13 males in this 1 1/4-mile test of stamina. 

Nine fillies have won the Queen's Plate including three of the past five renewals: Lexie Lou (2014), Holy Helena (2017) and Wonder Gadot last year. Desert Ride rallied relentlessly for a last-to-first triumph in the Woodbine Oaks three weeks ago, and it's worth noting the fractions and final time were all faster than the Plate Trial that was run a race earlier. 

We shall therefore forsake the six runners coming out of the Plate Trial, which was more than a full second slower than the Oaks, and focus on the trio of Skywire (10), Tone Broke (11) and Avie's Flatter (14) as additional inclusions.

Early at the meet, Skywire won the Wando decisively, and he was then compromised by a very slow pace when second in the Marine (G3).

Tone Broke comes off a solid second in the Sir Barton behind King for a Day, who returned to upset Maximum Security in the Pegasus at Monmouth Park. Note that Tone Broke's damsire is Smart Strike, winner of the 1996 Philip Iselin for Sam-Son Farm, back when it was a grade 1.

Avie's Flatter is 2 for 2 over the track for Josie Carroll, a two-time Queen's Plate-winning trainer. His two grass races in Kentucky during the spring put him on a nice development pattern, and he would've rated as an "A" were it not for drawing post 14.

A - 1, 10

B - 11, 14