In Terms of Wagering, Midwest Stakes Catch the Eye

There is noteworthy stakes action all over the map Saturday, July 13, but handicappers may be forced to sit on their hands or tread cautiously in several instances.

At Los Alamitos Race Course, for example, Eclipse Award-winning Game Winner makes his first appearance since an eventful journey in the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1), and he will be no better than 1-5 in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3) against three rivals, one of which is a 0-for-12 maiden.

At Saratoga Race Course, a five-horse renewal of the Sanford Stakes (G2) goes as race 3,and everyone in the field is stretching out to six furlongs for the first time, which is par for the course this early in the summer. Cucina (3) is the 8-5 morning-line choice off a hard-fought maiden win in a sloppy off-the-turf dash for Mark Casse, but who knows how that transfers to Saturday's tougher conditions? Likely threats include Raging Whiskey (2), a Santa Anita Park invader purchased following a second-out maiden win at 4 1/2 furlongs and transferred to Doug O'Neill, who captured the opening-day Schuylerville with Comical; and By Your Side (5), a narrow first-out winner for Eddie Kenneally, who took the 2016 Sanford with Bitumen fresh off a debut win.

The first grade 1 of the Spa meet comes later in the card when six fillies and mares—four of them trained by Chad Brown—line up for the $500,000 Diana (G1T). Sistercharlie (4), who won the Diana last year on her way to an Eclipse Award as champion female grass horse, makes her first start since taking the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) and will try to run down accomplished barn mate Rushing Fall (2), who is 8-1-0 from nine starts and a grade 1 winner each of the past three seasons. Oh yes, Brown also sends out Homerique (6), who started her United States career winning the Beaugay (G3T) and New York (G2T) stakes; and Thais (1), who looms a strong part of the pace adding blinkers from the rail. Set to oppose Brown's foursome are Mitchell Road (3), a half sister to her Kentucky Derby-winning stablemate Country House who steps up after four straight wins in lesser company for four-time Diana winner Bill Mott; and Secret Message (5), who will try to get five-time Diana runner-up Graham Motion into the winner's circle at long last.

The Diana, the nation's only grade 1 race on this day, is packaged as part of another Cross Country Pick Five with the storied Delaware Handicap (G2), which at $750,000 is the second-richest race of the year for fillies and mares going a route on dirt behind only the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).

Elate, who captured the Del 'Cap last year after spending more than eight months on the sidelines due to splint issues, comes off a determined score in the Fleur De Lis (G2) for Mott and is 7-5 to become the first back-to-back winner since Royal Delta accomplished the feat for Mott in 2012-2013. Among her eight rivals, the main threats are Escape Clause (3), who finished nearly three lengths in front of Elate when beaten a nose in the Apple Blossom (G1) by Midnight Bisou; and Blue Prize (6), who was rank early and ran on for second behind Elate in the Fleur De Lis.

All the above are must-watch races, obviously, but wagering-wise the best opportunities may lie in the Midwest at Arlington International Racecourse, which puts on a four-stakes program that includes a 13-horse running of the American Derby (G3T); and at Indiana Grand Racing & Casino, where the $500,000 Indiana Derby (G3) tops a five-stakes card that includes the Indiana Oaks (G3).

Here are some wise-guy theories ...

American Derby (AP, race 8, 5:19 CT): To set the stage, morning-line favorite Flying Scotsman (11) is drawn wide making his first start since last fall and first outside Southern California for new trainer Jack Sisterson, and Crafty Daddy (12) is even farther out as he seeks his fourth straight win since Brad Cox equipped him with blinkers.

The pace should be honest, perhaps even a bit taxing, because of the presence of High Crime (1) and Strong Will (4), who are trying turf for the first time, and The Last Zip (9), who exits a front-end maiden win at Belmont Park.

Things could fall into place nicely for War Film (2), who was on short rest (14 days) when a no-show fifth in the James W. Murphy on Preakness Day. He's been freshened and figures right there off two graded stakes runs in early spring, when beaten less than two lengths in the American Turf Stakes presented by Ram Trucks (G2T) and the Kentucky Utilities Transylvania (G3T).

I could also see Bundibunan (5) running into the picture late. The Ghostzapper  colt is prone to slow starts but is improving race by race on grass and has one of the best finishing kicks in the field.

Bottom line: Consider 2 and 5 as potential win wagers depending on price and/or mixed in with logical 9-11-12 in vertical exotics, along with a little Faraway Kitten (3) and Mick's Star (10).

Indiana Oaks (Ind, race 8, 9:10 ET): Street Band (5) is the most accomplished of the 14 fillies entered. She has been freshened since a difficult trip in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) and will be tough to beat off her win in the TwinSpires Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) right before that.

Potential sleepers are Sundayatthebeach (4), who is 8-1 on the morning line; and Blessed Again (6) at 12-1. Sundayatthebeach developed steadily figure-wise through her first four starts, all of which were on either turf or sealed wet tracks, and she was victimized by a slow pace when a rallying second in her previous race, which was also her first in two months and first on fast footing. Blessed Again similarly showed a solid development through her first five races on fast tracks. She has also had a freshening after trying grass (against older!) in the Lone Star Park Turf Stakes and chasing wire-to-wire winner Adore, a hard-knocking 6-year-old mare who has won 11 races.

Bottom line: Looking at the 4 and 6 depending on price, and figuring it's tough to keep the 5 off the board. If the track has seemed speedy through earlier races, upgrade Kim K (1) and make a case for her trying to steal it from the fence.

Indiana Derby (Ind, race 9, 10:02 ET): Cap off a long day of race-watching with this fun group of 11 3-year-olds.

I am going on the assumption the first two betting favorites are vulnerable: Mr Money (11), who comes off wins in the Matt Winn (G3) and Pat Day Mile (G3), is 6-5 to notch his first victory at a track not named Churchill Downs and must prove he can run as well out of town; he's also susceptible to a bounce after two peak efforts in a row. Math Wizard is the 9-2 second choice off a 

game try in the Ohio Derby (G3); he could also bounce here as well, as that effort came off a seven-week break and was lengths faster than his previous top.

Alwaysmining (6) should also take some play after a tough trip finishing fourth in the Easy Goer at even money, as will Gray Magician (3), who has had time off since backing up in the Derby.

My idea is Chess Chief (8), who rallied belatedly and was less than two lengths behind Math Wizard in the Oaklawn Invitational. That came four weeks after a respective effort in the Toyota Blue Grass (G2) when fifth of 14 and nearly seven lengths ahead of the sixth-place horse—and 13 in front of Sir Winston, the eventual winner of the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1).

Chess Chief put blinkers back on and was encouragingly closer to the early pace against older allowance horses most recently. Here's hoping he's the latest in a long line of Dallas Stewart-trained stakes runners that have come rolling late to hit the board at boxcar odds.

Bottom line: 8 as a win wager at 8-1 or better and protecting with 3-6-10-11, along with a pinch of Long Range Toddy (9), a well-beaten third in the Ohio Derby but capable of better.