First-Crop Sires Popular at Fasig-Tipton's July Sale

The United States yearling market gross was up $83 million (18%) in 2018, with the overall average for 4,974 yearlings sold up 9% to $106,659. The July Sale, Fasig-Tipton's selected yearling sale, saw 196 horses sold in 2018—just about 4% of the total that eventually sold through the year.

For that reason, it could be a mistake to make projections about the overall yearling market based on the first 4% to sell; still, it's the first sale of the yearling sale season, so it requires examination at the very least.

This year, the catalog grew by 15 horses, from 349 to 364; six more sold, making a total of 202 sales July 9. The gross dipped 6%, from $19,762,00 to $18,621,000; the average was down 9%, from $100,629 to $92,183; but the median was stable at $75,000. The number sold for $200,000 or more dipped from 24 to 14—a drop of 41% in that category. No one seemed unduly alarmed about the statistics, which felt relatively minor, and the fact the median stayed the same seems like a big plus.

The July Sale is no longer the "New Sires Showcase," but new sires were once again prominent on the sires' average list. In fact, eight sires (with three or more sold) recorded six-figure averages. Darley's Frosted  just about stole the show, with four yearlings selling for an average of $228,750.

Claiborne's Runhappy , who comes with a lot of attractive bonuses, averaged $156,750 with his four sold, followed by another Darley sire, 2016 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) winner Nyquist , whose three sold for an average of $153,3330. However, only 11 sold among the three of them, while others had considerably more.

Two WinStar Farm sires, Speightster  and Outwork , had very good sales. Speightster (no guessing who's his sire?) had six sell from 13 cataloged for an average of $140,833, ranking him fourth among first-crop sires, and sixth-placed Outwork had 10 average $107,500—over seven times his opening fee.

Two sons of Giant's Causeway made the list: Spendthrift's fifth-placed Brody's Cause  (four sold for an average of $111,250) and Taylor Made's Not This Time , whose three yearlings to sell of 10 cataloged averaged $106,667. Airdrie's Upstart  was another to have a good sale with his five yearlings averaging $104,000.

Quite a few more by many of these sires will be at Saratoga for Fasig-Tipton's flagship sale Aug. 5-6, including 13 by Frosted, nine by Nyquist, four by Runhappy, and three each for Speightster and Outwork. Plus other sires join the mix, with five by Exaggerator , four by California Chrome , and three by Air Force Blue .

Mind you, they will be playing second fiddle to their elders that include the likes of Into Mischief  (16), Uncle Mo  (12), Curlin  (11), American Pharoah  (nine), Pioneerof the Nile (nine), Quality Road  (nine), Medaglia d'Oro  (eight), and Tapit  (seven) in that sale.

Mid-Year APEX: Frankel, Galileo Top the Charts

APEX stallion ratings (Annual Progeny Earnings index) are a significantly enhanced version of an average-earnings index.

They actually consist of 17 different ratings, calculated by class, age, and geographical region and based on the frequency with which horses sire runners that achieve certain earnings thresholds. In each country, jurisdiction, or region, the top 2% of earners/runners each year are designated A Runners; the next 2% B Runners; the next 4% C Runners; and the top 8% combined ABC Runners.

The "signature index," if you will, is the A Runner Index (comparable to the average-earnings index). We calculate the ratings going back seven years and require sires have 10-plus 3-year-old foals in the last year included (so they had to have 10-plus foals of 2016 to be rated). This requirement results in an A Runner Index of 1.00 really equaling an average stallion, whereas the average-earnings index tends to be inflated, from the point of view of the commercial market, by including all foals by all stallions.

In the Northern Hemisphere, we assign APEX ratings in three regions: North America (U.S. and Canada); Europe (U.K./Ireland, France, and Germany); and Japan.

Because there is much more commerce involving North America and Europe for this review, Japan was set aside (Deep Impact 4.74), and we concentrate on 383 North American and European sires, which have had 200-plus "year-starters" since the beginning of 2013 (one horse is one "year-starter" each year it starts and can also be one A Runner, etc. each year—this is the same as how an average-earnings index is calculated).

Incidentally, as recently as 2013 there were 501 sires that qualified for inclusion, meaning there has been a 24% decline in the number of qualifying sires in the past six years.

We run the figures at a midyear point (usually after Fourth of July weekend; these through July 7) and year-end. In the past seven years, Galileo has ranked first or second by A Runner Index every year, which I find amazing as he has the highest number of runners as well as the highest or second-highest frequency of success—that's hard to do.

In that period he has led the list three times and been second the other four. The other leaders since 2013 have been War Front , Uncle Mo (the year he had his first 3-year-olds; unusual for a sire with first 3-year-olds, he qualified by having more than 200 year-starters in just two years of racing), and now, at year-end 2018 and midyear 2019, Galileo's son Frankel (6.24 A Runner Index). Undoubtedly, Frankel has helped by having only about a fifth as many year-starters (441 since 2016, the first year they raced) as Galileo (1,956), but there's no doubt—he's Galileo's best son to date at stud just as he was on the racecourse. 

Frankel (6.24) and Galileo (5.80) are the top two by some margin.

There are 44 (of 383) sires with an A Runner Index of 2.00-plus, which we would then describe as roughly the top 10% of rated sires. Ten of them—say the top 3% of sires—have indexes of 3.00-plus, so that's pretty rarefied air. Dubawi (4.93) ranks third, with War Front (4.50) fourth.

Since an A Runner index of 1.00 equals 2.00% of runners, a 4.50 index means exactly 9.00% of War Front's runners 2013-19 were A Runners. That's a very high proportion. Tapit (3.58) and Uncle Mo (3.58) tie for fifth, ahead of Medaglia d'Oro (3.52) in seventh. The top 10 is rounded out by Dansili (3.12), Ghostzapper (3.10), and Sea The Stars (3.10).

Curlin (2.99) heads the second 10, followed by Shamardal (2.91) and Scat Daddy (2.88), who will be rated for the last time at year-end with his final crop of 3-year-olds. Quality Road (2.82), who is proving over and over again that he really belongs in the top echelon of sires, comes next, followed by Teofilo (2.79); Speightstown  (2.73); the German sire Adlerflug (2.67); Intello (2.66), the top F2015 sire (first 4-year-olds in 2019) by A Runner Index; Candy Ride  (2.63); and Into Mischief (2.61). 

Two other F2015 sires with 200-plus year-starters are among the 44 sires with 2.00-plus A Runner indexes: Take Charge Indy (2.18), who looks like a big score for South Korea, and Camelot (2.12), who is the crop leader in numbers of good horses.

Among sires with their first 5-year-olds, there is the leader, Frankel, and Union Rags  (2.02). F2013 sires are represented by sixth-place Uncle Mo and Twirling Candy  (2.07), now having his best year yet.

There are six among the top 44 from the group of sires with their first foals 2012, making this the deepest sire group of the past few years. Besides Quality Road, this group includes Kantharos  (2.39), whose first Kentucky crop are just yearlings; Lookin At Lucky  (2.29); Siyouni (2.15); Lope de Vega (2.02); and Concord Point (2.01). Munnings  (1.96) is not far behind.

Sires with their first 3-year-olds (F2016) are now rated for the first time. Among those with 70-plus year-starters so far, Juddmonte's Kingman (3.64) leads the way, ahead of Idee Deutsches Derby (G1) winner Sea The Moon (3.00), who stands at Lanwades Stud in England, and Coolmore's Australia (2.84).

The top American sire with 70-plus year-starters is Adena Springs' Mucho Macho Man  (2.53)

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, Northern and Southern Hemisphere APEX ratings, Brianne Stanley's Weekly Sales Ticker and more, please visit www.billoppenheim.com.