Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Far Right, above winning the Smarty Jones Stakes, improved his Kentucky Derby stock. (Coady Photography)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago.
Heating Up

1. Far Right 

Coady Photography

Rarely do you see a Triple Crown prep victory as universally panned as Far Right’s win in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 19 at Oaklawn Park. It was not a performance that impressed speed figure makers. I’m taking a different approach. I’ve found through the years that Oaklawn Park is unique when it comes to Kentucky Derby preps. Races at Oaklawn rarely seem to produce huge speed figures or sparkling final times, and likewise workout times in the morning seem a tick or two slower than some other major tracks. For me, Far Right passed the eye test. He lost momentum when in tight approaching the final turn but battled on gamely and showed nice acceleration on the turn when rallying and then again in the stretch late. Compared with the others in the race, he actually came home pretty fast (about 13 seconds for the final furlong by my estimate). He was stopped during his bid in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Stakes and persisted for third in that race, which I think he might have won with a clear trip. We know Far Right can overcome trouble, and I think he is a real player on the Triple Crown trail.

2. Calculator

BENOIT Photo

If this list reflected my Kentucky Derby rankings among these three horses on the rise, then Calculator would be number one. But since I already held him in high regard and Far Right made a bigger jump in my eyes, Calculator landed the second spot here. It’s true, he was an overwhelming favorite in the Sham Stakes and there are questions about the quality of competition. But wow, did he win that race impressively. He just rolled right to the front and powered away to win by 4 ½ lengths. I have some questions about his ability to excel at 1 ¼ miles, but that’s the case for most 3-year-olds on the path to the Derby. One thing that is not in question is talent. He was twice a runner-up to champion American Pharoah prior to the Sham and this most recent race, for which he earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, proved Calculator is a serious racehorse.

3. International Star 

Eclipse Sportswire

 I liked International Star’s victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 17, but I didn’t love it. Among the positives, he showed he can deliver a top performance on dirt after his previous best efforts were a graded stakes win on the synthetic Polytrack surface at Woodbine and a runner-up finish in a Grade 2 on the grass at Saratoga. I also liked that he can lay off the early lead and make a sustained move but also has shown some early speed that will allow his rider options depending on the pace scenario. On the other hand, I definitely question the level of competition in this race and he showed some immaturity in the stretch. For a horse making his seventh start, you’d like to see a little more focus in the stretch. I do like the pedigree — specifically his third dam, Halory (click for more information) — more than I thought I would, and International Star clearly is improving.

Cooling Off

1. Mr. Z 

Coady Photography

This is a very talented horse. That’s not up for debate. But you don’t expect to see a horse duck/veer out like he did through the stretch of the Smarty Jones Stakes in his ninth career race. I thought someone must have backed a dump truck full of carrots up to the rail. I’m not going to bury Mr. Z. He’s finished in the top three in five graded stakes, including a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and a third in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. In the Los Alamitos Futurity, Mr. Z was only beaten by a head by the very talented 3-year-old Dortmund. He held on for third in the Smarty Jones and has posted a very solid 107 career-best speed figure (in the Los Alamitos Futurity), so the ability is there. This just wasn’t the type of performance you’d want or expect to see from Mr. Z in his ninth race. Hopefully, it’s something that can be corrected.

2. Eagle 

Keeneland photo

When we get to the horses trending down in January, the caveat is that many of these horses were heavy on the hype but light on stakes performance. So, what we often have is a horse, like Eagle, who isn’t in a free fall by any stretch but needs to start picking up points to have a shot to make the Kentucky Derby. He never threatened when finishing a disappointing seventh as the 3.40-to-1 favorite in the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 17. In fairness, Eagle was bumped approaching the first turn and raced very wide early after breaking from the outside in an 11-horse field, but you’d still like to see him challenge a little more in the stretch. Eagle’s third-place finish, only three-quarters of a length behind eventual Jerome Stakes winner El Kabeir, in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes led to high hopes for this Candy Ride colt. They are not quite as high this week.

3.  Tie: Rockinatten and Savoy Stomp

Eclipse Sportswire

Perhaps expectations were too high for Rockinatten after he won his third start by 8 ¾ lengths and earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure. He was not up to the challenge as the 9-to-2 second betting choice in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan 10 and finished last of eight. Savoy Stomp was bet down to 3.60-to-1 in the Lecomte Stakes — thanks largely to his trainer, Todd Pletcher, and Hall of Fame rider, Mike Smith — after finishing third as the 8-to-5 favorite in a Dec. 17 allowance/optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. Savoy Stomp was bumped at the start and lost valuable positioning en route to finishing fifth, beaten by 8 ¼ lengths in the Lecomte. Both Rockinatten and Savoy Stomp are talented horses, but they just aren’t ready at this point for the big boys of the 3-year-old division.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.