Some Contrarian Opinions for Weekend Stakes Races

Clearly this is not a normal mid-summer weekend, as a brutal heat wave has shuttered tracks throughout the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest July 20 and in some cases July 21 as well.

The biggest scheduled day of racing, however, was still a go as of Friday afternoon and Monmouth Park is on the proverbial hot seat as it tries to get through a TVG.com Haskell Invitational (G1) card supported by four other graded stakes, notably the Molly Pitcher (G3) featuring Midnight Bisou dropping in for what looks like easy pickings; and the Monmouth Cup (G3) where five-time graded stakes winner Coal Front is the one to catch and beat. The potential saving grace for Monmouth is that it lies just a few miles from the Atlantic Ocean, so things may be more tolerable on the Jersey Shore.

Meanwhile, Saratoga Race Course moved it's entire Saturday program—one that included the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and the $200,000 Caress—to Sunday. That endurance test of a card will begin with a steeplechase race and conclude a dozen races later with the Shuvee (G3) early in the evening. There's no guarantee Saratoga runs Sunday, by the way, as the forecast is for basically the same 105+ heat index as Saturday.

Out where the surf meets the turf, a pair of $200,000 stakes—the San Diego Handicap (G2) and San Clemente (G2T)—are the co-features at Del Mar, where the forecast calls for a high of 72 and a gentle sea breeze. Aaah! Catalina Cruise is pegged to 1-2 to win his second straight San Diego as the 123-pound highweight, but the San Clemente drew a field of 10 and looks bettable.

Maybe the heat's getting to me, but I've got some contrarian ideas throughout the weekend. One thing I will do, though, is dial back wagers in the Northeast by about half. Thoroughbreds are unpredictable by nature, but even more so under adverse/severe weather conditions such as extreme heat or cold, high winds, rain (duh), snow and fog.

Be that as it may, we keep calm and handicap on ...

SATURDAY

Haskell (Mth, race 12, 5:47 ET): A pivotal piece of the 3-year-old divisional puzzle with a lot going on, not to mention an automatic berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) for the winner. The one thing that stands out about the match-up is the fact that six of the seven entrants like to mix it up early. Listen, it would be great to see Maximum Security (7) rebound from a stumbling start in the Pegasus to even the score with the improving King for a Day (1), but now those two also have to deal with several other speed horses, most notably Mucho Gusto (5), a four-time grade 3 winner who looks to become Bob Baffert's ninth Haskell winner; and Joevia, who was on the lead to deep stretch in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

The pace play is Everfast (6), who is a couple lengths light numbers-wise but the only stone-cold closer in the race. He's outrun his odds finishing second in both the Fasig-Tipton Holy Bull (G2) at 128-1 and the Preakness (G1) at 29-1, and ran on pretty well along the inside late in the Belmont. I'll play him to hit the board in exactas and trifectas and hope they hang up blistering early fractions.

Monmouth Cup (Mth, race 10, 4:29 ET): Coal Front (3) will be favored to get the nine furlongs here, but that's taking the worst of it on a horse who's only been as far as 1 1/16 miles once, when life-and-death to hang on in the Razorback (G3).

Logical alternatives include Lemonade Thunder (2) and Monongahela (4), who both won decisively at 1 1/16 miles in comparable time and manner June 22 at Monmouth. That was the 24th start for Monongahela but just the eighth for Lemonade Thunder, who has since posted a bullet five-furlong workout for Arnaud Delacour, who recently has been hotter than the weather on the Mid-Atlantic circuit. Might Lemonade Thunder bounce off that lifetime best? Sure, but given his potential upside, something close to the 9-2 morning line makes him a reasonable play.

San Clemente (Dmr, race 8, 5:30 PT): Stillwater Cove (8) scratched from Friday's Lake George (G3) at Saratoga to run where it'll be 20-25 degrees cooler, and at 5-2 has the look of another morning-line choice who could be vulnerable at the distance. Her two wins have come in short dashes and her only try at a mile was the Natalma (G1T) last fall, where she had a clear lead in midstretch but faded to fifth.

At respective ML odds of 12-1 and 8-1, Keeper Ofthe Stars (1) and Over Emphasize (6) rate a look. The former won back-to-back starts on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields to start her sophomore season, then got on the grass there last out and wired a group of older optional claiming/allowance mares in course-record time for Jerry Hollendorfer, the beleagured Hall Of Fame trainer who has since transferred the filly to local conditioner Jonathan Wong. Wong, you should know, is winning at nearly a 30 percent clip this year. Over Emphasize has improved since switched to turf for her last three starts, and comes off a tough-trip third in the Honeymoon (G3T) in which she lacked room in upper stretch and altered course.

SUNDAY

Caress (Sar, race 11, 6:16 ET): After scratches, Chad Brown wound up sending out all three runners in Friday's Lake George, and the juggernaut is expected to roll on Sunday when he saddles Guarana at odds-on in the CCA Oaks and Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) runner-up Wow Cat in the Shuvee. Wow Cat made her United States debut in last year's Shuvee and finished a close second, before going on to win the Beldame Invitational (G1). For those who feel Wow Cat might "need a race" first time back, we refer you to Sistercharlie in last Saturday's Diana (G1T).

At any rate, Brown has the ML choice in the 5 1/2-furlong Caress too, but Significant Form (4), is yet another weekend chalk that is questionable on distance since she has never been shorter than seven-eighths of a mile. She's a thrice-beaten favorite already, too, so we'll look for an upsetter.

One who may fall through the cracks is Broadway Run (2), who has been competitive with several of these including Significant Form, and now makes her third start of the year and returns to the Spa, where she won the Coronation Cup in front-running fashion last summer (also in her third start of the year). Three of her last four works leading up to this race have been bullets, and the morning-line quote is 6-1.

However the chips fall this weekend, you horses and riders stay safe out there.