Vino Rosso Could Provide Betting Value in Whitney

Lots of interesting goings-on in the stakes ranks on the first Saturday of the month, most notably at Saratoga Race Course, which will forever be The August Place To Be no matter how much they dilute it. It's Whitney Day, and the $1 million Whitney Stakes (G1) will be televised live on NBCSN from 5-6 p.m. ET along with the Longines Test (G1) for 3-year-old fillies. 

The Test, Whitney, and Fasig-Tipton De La Rose comprise the first half of a two-day pick six that concludes Sunday with the Fasig-Tipton Waya (G3T), the inaugural running of the $1 million Saratoga Derby, and the Adirondack (G2). The 20-cent minimum bet has a bettor-friendly 15% takeout and a mandatory payout. That's because next Wednesday, New York introduces the Empire 6, a jackpot-style wager that has been popular elsewhere despite confiscatory takeout rates on non-mandatory payout days.

Out at Del Mar the co-featured attractions are a six-runner renewal of the Sorrento (G2) for juvenile fillies and the Yellow Ribbon Handicap (G2T) for older turf mares.

It's also the biggest day of the season at Mountaineer Casino, Racetrack & Resort, where the headliner is the $500,000 West Virginia Derby (G3).

Some thoughts:

Test (Sar, race 8, 5:06 ET): Show of hands, who remembers the 2016 Test in which the two favorites, Off the Tracks and Kareena, fried themselves to a crisp through fractions of 21.74 and 43.50 seconds and set the table for Paola Queen to come rolling on by at 55-1? It sure seems like another suicidal pace is in the cards here with Serengeti Empress (1), Bellafina (2) and Covfefe (3) breaking from the three innermost stalls.

Serengeti Empress ran everyone off their feet wiring the Longines Kentucky Oaks, then set blazing splits (21.89, 43.99, 1:08.03) in the Acorn (G1) when second to Guarana. Bellafina is a six-time winner at the grade 1/grade 2 level but hasn't been out since coming up a flat fifth in the Oaks three months ago, and projects to be sandwiched between Serengeti Empress and Covfefe, who wired the Ms. Preakness (G3) in track-record time and then got out-dueled against older in the Roxelana by Mia Mischief, who was beaten a neck in last year's Test.

Things could shake out well for Royal Charlotte (5), a natural stalker who has been brought along patiently by Chad Brown through four wins at four tracks in steadily tougher spots.

My other idea at a price is Trenchtown Cat (4), who, like Covfefe, tangled with older last out in the Princess Rooney (G2) and accredited herself well behind repeat winner Stormy Embrace. She gets a switch back to the red-hot Irad Ortiz Jr., who posted a five-bagger Wednesday and won on her twice earlier this year before her switchover from the grass.

A - 4, 5

B - 1, 2, 3

Whitney (Sar, race 9, 5:46 ET): Every trip handicapper in America will be all over McKinzie (6), who figures to be handled more aggressively by Mike Smith than he was through a nightmarish second in the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1). Thunder Snow (4) also had traffic and had to alter course in the Met, and while the $16 million earner has run well all over the globe, the fact remains that all five of his wins on dirt have come at Meydan Racecourse.

A line through the spring form of Gift Box suggests little separates McKinzie and Vino Rosso (5). Gift Box bested McKinzie by a nose in the Santa Anita Handicap Presented By San Manuel Indian Bingo & Casino (G1) a few weeks before Vino Rosso edged Gift Box by three-quarters of a length in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1). Vino Rosso has been far more tactical through his first three races as a 4-year-old and could be somewhat overlooked at 6-1 on the morning line.

Preservationist (8) has thrived since stretched out and positioned on or near the early lead, and while a bounce is something of a concern after a lifetime best to take the Suburban (G2), this is a lightly raced 6-year-old who doesn't have a lot of miles on the odometer.

A - 5, 6

B - 4, 8

De La Rose (Sar, race 10, 6:22 ET): A field of 14 entered but three are for dirt only, and some others like Divine Miss Grey (10) and Pacific Wind (11) have the look of "unofficial" MTOs.

The two I'm focusing on are Got Stormy (8) and Stella di Camelot (9). The former returns getting some class relief after being beaten less than two lengths in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley (G1T) and Distaff Turf Mile (G2T) in the spring. Stella di Camelot has been out just once this season, when she ran her last three-eighths of a mile in 33 seconds and wound up a close third to stablemate Significant Form in the Intercontintental (G3T) at seven furlongs, which was a tough short for her.

Rock my Love (5) cuts back after setting the pace to the stretch in the 10-furlong Dance Smartly (G2T).

As a potential bust-out, Desert Isle (1) is 20-1 from the rail with a short run to the first turn, and seeks her third straight win after taking an allowance in course-record time at Delaware Park and an Ontario-bred stake at Woodbine Racetrack.

A - 8, 9

B - 5

C - 1

West Virginia Derby (Mnr, race 8, 5:35 ET): Mr. Money (9) looms large over nine rivals coming off wins in the Pat Day Mile (G3), Matt Winn (G3) and Indiana Derby (G3), and gets a break in the weights under the allowance conditions dropping four pounds from the latter race while Math Wizard (8) and Chess Chief (1), who were third and fourth, tote the same weight as last time.

Mr. Money would've rated a long look had his connections opted to shoot for the Runhappy Travers (G1) three weeks from now, but ultimately decided being odds-on at nine furlongs against no other graded stakes winners except UAE Derby (G2) winner Plus Que Parfait (4) was a better bet than trying the big boys at 10 furlongs. Can't say I blame them!

It's wide open underneath, and the biggest piece of the puzzle involves the early pace because there isn't a whole lot of it. Someone's going to try and seize the initiative and the best guess is that it'll be one of the two coming out of the Iowa Derby, fourth finisher Fluminense (6) and Top Line Growth (7), who was elevated from second to first via disqualification. Both had trouble at the start but share the following characteristic: their best races have come when right on top of the early pace.

A - 9

B - 4

C - 6, 7

Yellow Ribbon (Dmr, race 8, 5:30 PT): Thanks to a preliminary injunction that halted Del Mar's ban of Jerry Hollendorfer, the Hall of Fame trainer will send out his best runner, Vasilika (4), as the  7-5 favorite to pick up her fifth straight graded stakes tally of the year.

I'll be happy for Hollendorfer if he wins because everyone deserves due process when their livelihood is at stake, but the cold-blooded horseplayer in me wants to see whether Beau Recall (1) or Toinette (8) offer any value for a win bet.

Beau Recall was victimized by a snail's pace when a solid second in the Longines Just A Game (G1T) wired by odds-on Rushing Fall, and her current form for Brad Cox is superior to what she showed against Vasilika last fall.

Until returning female grass champion Sistercharlie ran down Rushing Fall in the Diana (G1T), the only other filly to have beaten the latter was Toinette, who overcame a troubled start to best her narrowly in the 2018 Edgewood (G3T). This will be her seasonal debut and first start against older, but she has fired fresh before and is 2 for 2 at the 1 1/16-mile trip.

A - 1, 8

B - 4