Mulligan's Eye for 2YO Athletes Aids Punters and Buyers

A severe head injury caused by a fall in a South Florida restaurant 10 years and three months ago cost horseman and preeminent pinhooker Mike Mulligan his livelihood and nearly his life. 

After multiple surgeries associated with the fall and then dealing with subsequent injuries sustained in a rear-end collision, Mulligan fought his way back to health only to find his decades-long pinhooking venture all but gone and the overall economy clawing its way out of the Great Recession.

Major obstacles loomed ahead. He had a family to support and bills to pay, and he faced having to rebuild a career from scratch.

"The night I got hurt, the doctors' prognosis for me to even survive was not all that good. I don't remember anything, but that is what I was told," Mulligan said. "No one was sure whether I'd be a vegetable or paralyzed from the neck down. You know, we had done really well for a really long time. My partners had made money for 12-14 years, every year. Now horses are leaving the farm. Then I get back and I still have the farm payments and the obligations to my staff, and my income is 10% of what it was. That was tough."

Where to start again?

Mulligan began with what he knows best—spotting the future racing stars out of a group of juvenile sale prospects.

In 2015, he dipped his toe back into the pinhooking market by buying a few yearlings. Mulligan needed income, but more importantly he needed to prove his eye for talent was still sharp. At The July Sale, Fasig-Tipton's selected yearling sale, he found a $92,000 colt by Majesticperfection out of the Gold Case mare Magic Belle, a mare Mulligan bought several years earlier as a yearling for $45,000 and resold at a 2-year-olds in training sale for $425,000.

"(Magic Belle) was beautiful, and he was beautiful. I bought him for $92,000 and sold him for $450,000," Mulligan said of the colt that became grade 1-placed stakes winner Syndergaard. "He won his first two starts and then ran brilliantly in the Champagne (G1) in a photo finish with Practical Joke . It was more than six lengths back to the rest of the field."

Clearly, Mulligan still had the chops to find a talented horse that wasn't going to break the bank to acquire. As he evaluated his next steps, though, he said he wasn't keen on trying to rebuild what he'd done before—operate a training center, find partners to invest in 35-50 yearlings a year, go through the breaking and training, and then travel all over the country to get these horses sold in markets they fit best. Instead, he began to see value in the copious notes and ratings he had developed over the past 18 years for his own personal use to evaluate performances during the under tack shows at 2-year-old sales.

"I thought if I was right about the good horses coming out of the 2-year-old sales based on how they looked on the racetrack, then I might have a valuable handicapping product particularly with first-time starters," he said. 

To get this venture started, Mulligan improved the organization of his ratings and notes. He also started recording all his under tack evaluations into a database so he could monitor the racetrack success of the horses he felt were standouts. As a bridge to the handicapping product he envisioned offering down the road, he began publishing in 2016 a breeze show analysis report for a select group of buyers and consignors at the Ocala Breeders' Sales' 2-year-olds in training sales. His report includes not only work times and gallop out times, but Mulligan's notes on the manner a horse worked, and his own score from 1-9. Not all horses that work get a score, and those that do roughly represent the top 25% at a given sale, according to Mulligan.

To produce his analysis, Mulligan reached out to his extensive network of juvenile consignors and buyers. Owner Bill Heiligbrodt, who has consulted with Mulligan on purchases for more than 18 years, was an early investor.

"I invested because I wanted access to his product," Heiligbrodt said. "Other people offer similar information, and horsemen will argue about whether someone timed a horse right. What Mike is doing may not be perfect, but it is uniform. His product gives me the best versus the universe of all the horses, so it comes out more statistically correct. I don't think I would even go to a 2-year-old sale without this information anymore."

As an example of the insights Mulligan's report offers, Heiligbrodt referred to his multiple grade 1 winner Mitole, who he acquired for $140,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. 

"Mitole worked fast and galloped out fast, but you look at Mike's notes and you see the horse blew the turn. He went to the outside rail, worked farther than the others, and was still fast," Heiligbrodt said.

Mitole has won four of five starts this year, with wins in the Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Twinspires.com (G1) and Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1). He was most recently third July 27 in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) and has earnings exceeding $1.68 million.

Heiligbrodt said he uses Mulligan's reports strictly to buy horses. He doesn't bet because he puts his money toward racing horses, but he recognizes the value Mulligan's score can provide to handicappers.

"Those horses he rates, particular those rated 1, 2, 3, or 4, have a chance of being good horses," he said.

Regarding his scoring system, Mulligan said any horse that gets a score is considered a potential racehorse.

"A horse that scores a 9 is still among the top 25% of the 2-year-olds we saw," Mulligan said. "A 1 has a stronger feel for precociousness and speed, but we have a lot of grade 1 horses that I did not give a 1. If I give a horse a 5, for example, that still puts him among the top 10% I saw. I may not think that horse is going to win first time out, but it is still a good enough racehorse for me to score at that level."

A good example of a good horse that earned a 5 from Mulligan is Knicks Go, a son of Paynter  who was cataloged for the 2018 OBS April sale and worked during the under tack show but was sold privately and withdrawn from the sale.

"I remember this horse because I liked the Paynters physically as yearlings," Mulligan said. "(Knicks Go) left the pole late and worked in :10 2/5 and went out in :23.37. People wondered why I gave him a 5, but he was a big, long-striding horse, and I liked him. I didn't think he would win going five furlongs or first time out, but he won the (Claiborne) Breeders' Futurity and paid $142."

Since 2017, Mulligan has been attending the under tack shows at every major 2-year-old sale, except in California and Louisiana where he has someone who looks at horses the same way he does and takes notes.

"For those sales I don't attend, I review the videos. Ninety-five percent of the horses going through a sale I see," he said.

Mulligan's database now includes the under tack statistics for more than 9,000 horses. He has a program that cross-references racetrack entries every day and flags the horses that previously earned a score from him at a sale. A listing of these horses is offered on a subscription website Mulligan launched last year called BetBestBreeze.com.

The horses with big strides and fluid motion that covered ground so effortlessly to Mulligan's eye have unquestionably turned their athleticism into racing success. 

"It has turned out to be a good handicapping tool," said Mike Eiserman, an owner who also was involved in pinhooking partnerships through Mulligan's former operation called Leprechaun Racing. "Not a lot of people know anything about the maiden races, in particular with 2-year-olds. I have had good success, and it is really predictive. It is so predictive I told him not to do (the website), just put together a syndicate of people who like to bet and use it. I still feel the same way because it is very effective."

As of July 24, Mulligan said 10 first-time starters he scored at an under tack show became winners and paid more than 10-1. Out of 110 starters from all race types he's flagged, 40 became winners. The horses he has scored also have won 157 different stakes since he launched BetBestBreeze.com.

"For every 2-year-old we scored this year as a 4-3-2-1, they are winning one out of every three races first time out. Among all the horses I've scored, they are winning one out of four races first time out," Mulligan said.

The early success of Mulligan's system has been rewarding to him on multiple levels. 

For one, he's proving he still has the skills that made Leprechaun Racing the co-leading yearling buyer by number of stakes winners (ranked alongside Sheikh Mohammed's former bloodstock adviser John Ferguson) and the leading buyer by number of 2-year-old winners for yearlings bought in 2000-04. 

Second, his handicapping website and breeze analysis guide have allowed him to regain an active role in the juvenile training market that he respects and had been so good to his family and his partners for many years.

Finally, Mulligan believes his products underscore the value of buying horses out of the 2-year-olds in training market. Mulligan is a former president of the National Association of Two-Year-Old Consignors.

"No question, it is rewarding to see a good percentage of the horses that are fast and move well that I score go on and do well at the races, but (just) as important, these numbers tell you that 2-year-olds are good products for the racing industry and a lot of good horses come out of these sales," he said. "People should take notice that all my 2-year-old winners were bought as yearlings and went through the 2-year-old process. So anyone who thinks the 2-year-old sales hamper a horse's ability to be a racehorse, these numbers tell you that is the furthest thing from the truth.

"I really liked what I was doing before, and I really like what I'm doing now," he continued. "Whether I'm buying horses to race or evaluating horses at breeze shows, I want to succeed and feel good about what I'm doing. Right now I feel good."